Featured
-
-
Article
| Open Access
Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models
The degree of warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted in the low equilibrium climate sensitivity models can be underestimated due to their deficiencies in depicting seasonal low-cloud variations over the extra-tropics.
- Xianan Jiang
- , Hui Su
- & Gregory Elsaesser
-
Article
| Open Access
North African humid periods over the past 800,000 years
A climate model identifies that periodic wet phases in the Sahara, termed North African Humid Periods, were driven by Earths orbital variations and were suppressed during glacial periods due to the influence of extensive ice sheets.
- Edward Armstrong
- , Miikka Tallavaara
- & Paul J. Valdes
-
Article
| Open Access
Accounting for the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage in nature
Efforts to retain or increase land carbon pools are hampered by the risk of loss to natural or human disturbances. The proposed approach to tonne-year accounting could effectively quantify and track the climate value of both temporary and permanent carbon storage.
- H. Damon Matthews
- , Kirsten Zickfeld
- & Amy Luers
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Uncertainty and bias in Liggio et al. (2019) on CO2 emissions from oil sands operations
- John Liggio
- & Shao-Meng Li
-
Article
| Open Access
Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable
This study examines the effect of four marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predators, revealing a wide-array of predator responses both among and within heatwaves. Predator responses were highly predictable, demonstrating capacity for early warning systems of heatwave impacts, similar to weather forecasts.
- Heather Welch
- , Matthew S. Savoca
- & Elliott L. Hazen
-
Article
| Open Access
Heterogeneous changes of soil microclimate in high mountains and glacier forelands
The high-resolution global model of soil temperature and snow cover change in mountain ecosystems developed here shows that areas nearby glaciers are warming faster than other mountain regions, and these effects are particularly rapid in tropical mountains.
- Silvio Marta
- , Anaïs Zimmer
- & Gentile Francesco Ficetola
-
Article
| Open Access
The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China
Estimating health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of significance for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.9. Here, the authors show that population aging is expected to be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM2.5 in China by 2035, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare.
- Fangjin Xu
- , Qingxu Huang
- & Brett A. Bryan
-
Article
| Open Access
Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality
The risk of heat-mortality is increasing sharply. The authors report that heat-mortality levels of a 1-in-100-year summer in the climate of 2000 can be expected once every ten to twenty years in the current climate and at least once in five years with 2 °C of global warming.
- Samuel Lüthi
- , Christopher Fairless
- & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
-
Article
| Open Access
Adoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties increases agricultural production, consumption, and smallholder commercialization in West Africa
The adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties has the potential to build farmers’ climate resilience. Here, the authors show that adoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties in West Africa benefits all households, with the biggest gains accruing to small-scale farmers.
- Martin Paul Jr Tabe-Ojong
- , Jourdain C. Lokossou
- & Hippolyte D. Affognon
-
Article
| Open Access
Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones has been occurring closer to land since 1980 due to climate change. This shift can degenerate the forecast skill and increase the danger that tropical cyclones pose to coastal regions.
- Yi Li
- , Youmin Tang
- & Qiang Wang
-
Article
| Open Access
Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
Emerging limitations on climate and low-carbon technology would require adjusting our 15.C climate change mitigation pathways. However, this could increase average annual emissions reductions to around 3GtCO2/year using a broad portfolio of mitigation measures.
- Ajay Gambhir
- , Shivika Mittal
- & Jason A. Lowe
-
Perspective
| Open Access
Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting
Climate model ensemble boosting can yield physically coherent storylines for record-shattering climate extremes such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Combining information from storyline approaches with process understanding can inform planning for future extremes of unprecedented intensity.
- E. M. Fischer
- , U. Beyerle
- & R. Knutti
-
Article
| Open Access
Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change
Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching mortality events threaten the persistence of coral communities on tropical reefs. This study demonstrates that the thermal tolerance of coral communities in Palau has likely increased since the late 1980s. Such ecological resilience could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.
- Liam Lachs
- , Simon D. Donner
- & James R. Guest
-
Article
| Open Access
Experimental impacts of grazing on grassland biodiversity and function are explained by aridity
Experimental evidence on the long-term impacts of livestock grazing on biodiversity and function is limited. Here, the authors show that grazing impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions are aggravated with aridity using experimental sites across an aridity gradient.
- Minna Zhang
- , Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo
- & Ling Wang
-
Article
| Open Access
National quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations
High-resolution satellite data enables a unique verification of national methane emissions worldwide. Global estimates are 63 Tg a−1 for oil-gas, 30% higher than the UNFCCC reports due to under-reporting by four largest emitters, and 33 Tg a−1 for coal, consistent with previous estimates.
- Lu Shen
- , Daniel J. Jacob
- & Jintai Lin
-
Article
| Open Access
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling induces non-linear warming via the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which exerts an accelerating effect on global warming and on extremely high temperatures.
- Liang Qiao
- , Zhiyan Zuo
- & Kaiwen Zhang
-
Article
| Open Access
Truck platooning reshapes greenhouse gas emissions of the integrated vehicle-road infrastructure system
Truck platooning allows for trucks to travel synchronously in close proximity to improve fuel efficiency. Here, authors evaluate the decarbonization effects of platooning on the vehicle-road system at a large-scale road network level revealing a trade-off between emission reduction and cost rise.
- Huailei Cheng
- , Yuhong Wang
- & Tian Jin
-
Article
| Open Access
How climate policy commitments influence energy systems and the economies of US states
In the US, states vary in their efforts to address climate change. Stronger state climate policies reduce CO2 emissions without harming the economy, but these reductions are unlikely to meet the goals in the Paris Climate Accord.
- Parrish Bergquist
- & Christopher Warshaw
-
Article
| Open Access
Holocene climate change in southern Oman deciphered by speleothem records and climate model simulations
Southern Oman speleothem oxygen isotope and multi-proxy data reveal diverse changes in the Afro-Indian summer monsoon circulations and local hydroclimate conditions during the Holocene, confirming climate model simulations.
- Ye Tian
- , Dominik Fleitmann
- & Hai Cheng
-
Article
| Open Access
Decadal changes in Atlantic overturning due to the excessive 1990s Labrador Sea convection
Using high-resolution model experiments, the authors identify the rapid spreading of mid-depth density anomalies from the Labrador to the Irminger Sea as a prime mechanism in the generation of decadal changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation.
- C. W. Böning
- , P. Wagner
- & A. Biastoch
-
Article
| Open Access
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
- Peter Ditlevsen
- & Susanne Ditlevsen
-
Article
| Open Access
Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
Storm severity indices of European winter storms in climate models show future increased storm losses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population.
- Alexander S. Little
- , Matthew D. K. Priestley
- & Jennifer L. Catto
-
Article
| Open Access
Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation
Increased global land precipitation, due to the atmospheric feedbacks of large-scale bioenergy cultivation, may partially compensate the water consumption by such rainfed bioenergy crops at the global scale.
- Zhao Li
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Wei Li
-
Article
| Open Access
QBO deepens MJO convection
This paper shows that the vertical growth of deep convective systems within Madden-Julian oscillation envelopes is facilitated by mean state changes in the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere during easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation winters.
- Daeho Jin
- , Daehyun Kim
- & Lazaros Oreopoulos
-
Article
| Open Access
Global environmental implications of atmospheric methane removal through chlorine-mediated chemistry-climate interactions
Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, has comparable anthropogenic and natural sources, complicating emission control. Increasing reactive chlorine has been proposed for mitigation. This study assesses the global environmental impacts of such proposal.
- Qinyi Li
- , Daphne Meidan
- & Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
-
Article
| Open Access
Unraveling the optical shape of snow
Micrometre scale simulation of the trajectory of sunlight as it reaches the snowpack shows what snow looks like from the photon’s perspective, providing a more universal representation of snow in optical models.
- Alvaro Robledano
- , Ghislain Picard
- & Quentin Libois
-
Article
| Open Access
How to make climate-neutral aviation fly
Europe’s aviation must reduce more than just flight CO2 emissions to achieve net-zero. Synthetic fuels and carbon capture and storage could help but decreasing air traffic is crucial due to non-CO2 climate impacts and resource constraints.
- Romain Sacchi
- , Viola Becattini
- & Marco Mazzotti
-
Article
| Open Access
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections
Simultaneous harvest failures across crop-producing regions are major threats to global food security. A strongly meandering jet can trigger these, however, climate and crop models underestimate effects with consequences for climate risk assessments.
- Kai Kornhuber
- , Corey Lesk
- & Radley M. Horton
-
Article
| Open Access
Built structures influence patterns of energy demand and CO2 emissions across countries
Extent and spatial patterns of settlements and infrastructures strongly affect resource demand of national economies worldwide. Their influence on final energy and CO2 emissions is almost as large as that of gross domestic product (GDP).
- Helmut Haberl
- , Markus Löw
- & Juan Antonio Duro
-
Article
| Open Access
Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability
Projecting regional hydrological response to climate change has been a longstanding challenge. By using the dominant precipitation modes as “fingerprints”, this study shows the robust Asian monsoon rainfall response to anthropogenic warming.
- Daokai Xue
- , Jian Lu
- & Yaocun Zhang
-
Article
| Open Access
Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation
This study shows that climate change will alter the sea surface temperature - precipitation relationships and our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100.
- Phong V. V. Le
- , James T. Randerson
- & Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
-
Article
| Open Access
Enhancing rice production sustainability and resilience via reactivating small water bodies for irrigation and drainage
Ponds played an important role in ancient rice-growing regions such as China and India. Here, the authors find that reviving small water bodies to recycle drainage water for irrigation can reduce China’s rice production water footprint by 9% and alleviate 2-3% yield loss in dry years.
- Sisi Li
- , Yanhua Zhuang
- & Liang Zhang
-
Article
| Open Access
Endogenous learning for green hydrogen in a sector-coupled energy model for Europe
This study highlights the importance of including learning-by-doing for hydrogen production in energy models. It reveals that scaling up renewable capacities and electrolysis faster than the EU’s REPowerEU Plan can be cost-effective under strict climate targets, reducing hydrogen production costs and shifting from grey to green hydrogen.
- Elisabeth Zeyen
- , Marta Victoria
- & Tom Brown
-
Article
| Open Access
Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover
A shift in summer atmospheric circulation has accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet melt. The authors show that diminished North American snow cover supports these conditions by inducing a stationary Rossby wave that favors high pressure over Greenland.
- Jonathon R. Preece
- , Thomas L. Mote
- & Gabriel J. Kooperman
-
Article
| Open Access
The turbulent future brings a breath of fresh air
Turbulence is an important ventilator of near-surface pollution but is also influenced by it. Here we find that turbulence is likely to increase with mitigating black carbon emissions, providing an added positive impact in highly polluted regions.
- Camilla W. Stjern
- , Øivind Hodnebrog
- & Ignacio Pisso
-
Article
| Open Access
A global meta-analysis of soil organic carbon in the Anthropocene
Over 25,000 synthesized experiments identify effective land management practices, such as tree planting and biochar use, that partially mitigate land-use change effects. Yet, indirect climate change effects still pose a potential severe threat to SOC globally
- Damien Beillouin
- , Marc Corbeels
- & Rémi Cardinael
-
Article
| Open Access
Continentality determines warming or cooling impact of heavy rainfall events on permafrost
Literature analysis and numerical modeling experiments suggest the continentality of a permafrost region determines whether the ground experiences warming or cooling as a consequence of heavy summer rainfall.
- Alexandra Hamm
- , Rúna Í. Magnússon
- & Andrew Frampton
-
Article
| Open Access
Adaptive bias correction for improved subseasonal forecasting
This paper proposes a low-cost machine learning correction for physics-based dynamical models that improves subseasonal forecasting of temperature and precipitation two to six weeks ahead.
- Soukayna Mouatadid
- , Paulo Orenstein
- & Lester Mackey
-
Article
| Open Access
The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities
This study projects a significant increase in the frequency and duration of compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events in major U.S. cities during the 21st century. GHG-induced warming is the main driver, amplified by urban development.
- Mahshid Ghanbari
- , Mazdak Arabi
- & Ashley M. Broadbent
-
Article
| Open Access
Critical role of biomass burning aerosols in enhanced historical Indian Ocean warming
The Indian Ocean has experienced enhanced surface warming in the past century, causing global climatic impacts. In this study, we identified the changes in biomass burning induced aerosols as a critical driver for the enhanced Indian Ocean warming.
- Yiqun Tian
- , Shineng Hu
- & Clara Deser
-
Article
| Open Access
Demonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk
This paper presents a method for quantifying the benefits of beaches in reducing storm and long-term coastal flood risk. This method can contribute to cost-effective decision-making on climate change adaptation in many of the world’s coasts.
- Alexandra Toimil
- , Iñigo J. Losada
- & Gonéri Le Cozannet
-
Article
| Open Access
Global warming accelerates soil heterotrophic respiration
Soil’s role in Earth’s carbon budget is uncertain. A new model links soil temperature and moisture to global soil respiration. Heterotrophic respiration has risen by 2% per decade since the 1980s, with a projected 40% increase by century end.
- Alon Nissan
- , Uria Alcolombri
- & Markus Holzner
-
Article
| Open Access
Reassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests
Tree growth in boreal forests is generally predicted to increase under warming. Here, the authors demonstrate a method to analyze physiologically informed temperature series of tree-ring data, finding potentially overlooked growth-temperature responses and projecting increasing risks of warming to boreal larch forests.
- Wenqing Li
- , Rubén D. Manzanedo
- & Neil Pederson
-
Article
| Open Access
Role of the Maritime Continent in the remote influence of Atlantic Niño on the Pacific
Equatorial Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies force an eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave, enabling the Atlantic to impact the Pacific, with the interaction of the Kelvin wave and the Maritime Continent critical in this teleconnection.
- Siying Liu
- , Ping Chang
- & Ingo Richter
-
Matters Arising
| Open Access
Response to Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
- Judah Cohen
- , Laurie Agel
- & Ian White
-
Article
| Open Access
Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario
A dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in all months. By scaling climate models’ sea ice response to best match observed trends, an ice-free Arctic in September is projected under all scenarios.
- Yeon-Hee Kim
- , Seung-Ki Min
- & Elizaveta Malinina
-
Article
| Open Access
Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate
In this study, the authors use eddy-resolving climate model simulations and project an almost linear increase of extreme atmospheric rivers with global warming and a doubling of their occurrence under a high emission scenario.
- Shuyu Wang
- , Xiaohui Ma
- & Bolan Gan
-
Article
| Open Access
Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility
The potential for the mitigation of global non-CO2 greenhouse gases is highly uncertain. Harmsen et al. estimate this uncertainty and show that it has large implications for the feasibility of reaching the Paris Climate Agreement targets.
- Mathijs Harmsen
- , Charlotte Tabak
- & Detlef van Vuuren
-
Article
| Open Access
Rain triggers seasonal stratification in a temperate shelf sea
Seasonal stratification on the northwest European Shelf is found to be triggered by rainfall from passing storms. Further links are made between the onset of stratification to large-scale pressure changes in the North Atlantic.
- J. E. Jardine
- , M. Palmer
- & J. Wihsgott
Drought as a possible contributor to the Visigothic Kingdom crisis and Islamic expansion in the Iberian Peninsula