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Article
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Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration
Restoring tree cover is a prominent climate solution but can cause global warming due to changes in albedo. This paper maps albedo and carbon changes from restoring tree cover to highlight where the greatest net climate benefits can be achieved.
- Natalia Hasler
- , Christopher A. Williams
- & Susan C. Cook-Patton
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Article
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The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies
The global atlas of unburnable oil shows that the most socio-environmentally sensitive areas, such as protected areas or biodiversity hotspots, need to be kept entirely off-limits to oil extraction in order to keep global warming under 1.5 °C.
- Lorenzo Pellegrini
- , Murat Arsel
- & Martí Orta-Martínez
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Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures
This study demonstrates how land-based carbon removals and the market-mediated responses are sensitive to mitigation policy strength and scope, illustrating that, despite trade-offs, both forestation and BECCS are integral to cost-effective 2 °C pathways.
- Xin Zhao
- , Bryan K. Mignone
- & Haewon C. McJeon
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Article
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Strategies for robust renovation of residential buildings in Switzerland
Building renovation is an urgent requirement to reduce the environmental impact associated with the building stock. In this paper, authors identify strategies for robust renovation considering uncertainties on the future and provide recommendations for the residential buildings in Switzerland.
- Alina Galimshina
- , Maliki Moustapha
- & Guillaume Habert
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Public perceptions and support of climate intervention technologies across the Global North and Global South
This article establishes a global baseline of public perceptions of climate-intervention technologies. Publics across the global South are more favorable and supportive but concerned about impacts on mitigation and unequal burdens of risks on poor countries.
- Chad M. Baum
- , Livia Fritz
- & Benjamin K. Sovacool
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Sustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations
Atmospheric measurements show that China’s emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, sulfur hexafluoride, grew rapidly between 2011 and 2021. This rise could offset some of China’s progress towards its greenhouse gas emission reduction goal.
- Minde An
- , Ronald G. Prinn
- & Matthew Rigby
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The inclusion of Amazon mangroves in Brazil’s REDD+ program
A new study shows that deforestation of Amazon mangroves releases up to four times more carbon dioxide when compared to emissions arising from terrestrial biomes. This study set a foundation for the use of mangroves in Brazil’s international policy agreements.
- Angelo F. Bernardino
- , Ana Carolina A. Mazzuco
- & J. Boone Kauffman
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Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios
Effects of hydrogen and ammonia co-firing with fossil power generation on decarbonization scenario are assessed. Co-fired generation is limited to <1% because of higher cost of hydrogen. It will not delay the phase-out of fossil-based generators.
- Ken Oshiro
- & Shinichiro Fujimori
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Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake
It is unclear how indirect CO2 effect – via associated climate change – on vegetation carbon uptake changes globally. Here, the authors show that such initial positive effect has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century.
- Zefeng Chen
- , Weiguang Wang
- & Alessandro Cescatti
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Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa’s low-carbon electricity system
Avoiding the most damaging land use and freshwater impacts of solar PV, wind, and hydropower development while halving carbon emissions by 2040 in the Southern Africa region is not only possible but incurs only modest (3-6%) system cost increases.
- Grace C. Wu
- , Ranjit Deshmukh
- & Kudakwashe Ndhlukula
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Exploring negative emission potential of biochar to achieve carbon neutrality goal in China
Authors analyze the potential of biochar in China, revealing it could sequester up to 0.92 billion tons of CO2 per year with an average net cost of US$90 per ton of CO2 in a sustainable manner, supporting carbon neutrality goal by 2060.
- Xu Deng
- , Fei Teng
- & Pan Wang
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Perspective
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The principles of natural climate solutions
Natural climate solutions can mitigate climate change but misunderstandings about what constitutes a natural climate solution generate unnecessary confusion and controversy. This Perspective distills five foundational principles of natural climate solutions and fifteen operational principles for practical implementation.
- Peter Woods Ellis
- , Aaron Marr Page
- & Susan C. Cook-Patton
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Greenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy
This study demonstrates the energy use of US pump irrigation produced 12.6 million tonnes CO2e in 2018, with spatial variability modulated by water source and fuel choice. These county-level estimates can inform strategic irrigation expansion and emissions reduction efforts.
- Avery W. Driscoll
- , Richard T. Conant
- & Nathaniel D. Mueller
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Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems
Existing models to estimate agroecosystem C cycle have large uncertainties. Here, the authors propose a knowledge-guided machine learning framework that improves C cycle quantification in agroecosystems by integrating process-based and machine learning models, and multi-source high-resolution data.
- Licheng Liu
- , Wang Zhou
- & Zhenong Jin
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The potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts
Zuiderveen and colleagues find that emerging bio-based products have on average 45% lower greenhouse gas life cycle emissions compared to their fossil counterparts, yet, there is a large variation between individual bio-based products with none of them reaching netzero emissions.
- Emma A. R. Zuiderveen
- , Koen J. J. Kuipers
- & Mark A. J. Huijbregts
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Approaching national climate targets in China considering the challenge of regional inequality
Aggressive or uniform actions on climate targets may exacerbate regional inequality and induce economic losses in China. The proposed collaborative strategy for carbon neutrality can avoid up to 1.54% of GDP losses while 90% of provinces would gain.
- Biying Yu
- , Zihao Zhao
- & Hua Liao
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Global transcontinental power pools for low-carbon electricity
By building transcontinental power pools, Yang and colleagues find global electricity demand can be 100% met by renewables, at an affordable cost.
- Haozhe Yang
- , Ranjit Deshmukh
- & Sangwon Suh
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Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets
This study reveals high variability in deforestation emission baselines typically used to derive carbon credits, with median error at 0.778 times the actual rate. It underscores the need for enhanced methods to improve carbon market accuracy and reliability.
- Hoong Chen Teo
- , Nicole Hui Li Tan
- & Lian Pin Koh
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Projecting future carbon emissions from cement production in developing countries
The rapid deployment of low-carbon measures is urgently needed to reduce cement emissions as cement CO2 emissions from developing countries will almost deplete the remaining cement emissions budget within climate targets.
- Danyang Cheng
- , David M. Reiner
- & Dabo Guan
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Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand
A new study explores the global feasible supply of steel and cement within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in the deployment of infrastructure and it shows that feasible supply may fall short of expected global demand.
- Takuma Watari
- , André Cabrera Serrenho
- & Julian Allwood
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The social costs of tropical cyclones
The estimates of the societal costs of carbon currently used for policy evaluations may be too low due to an insufficient representation of tropical cyclone damage. Accounting for them substantially increases the estimated benefits of climate change mitigation measures.
- Hazem Krichene
- , Thomas Vogt
- & Christian Otto
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Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions
While accounting for intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases, solely relying on soil carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible
- Yue Wang
- , Imke J. M. de Boer
- & Corina E. van Middelaar
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Reversed asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature over land during recent decades
The authors find a significant increase in daily maximum temperature warming rates, while daily minimum temperatures remain stable over land in recent decades. This may be due to reduced cloud cover, leading to increased incoming solar radiation.
- Ziqian Zhong
- , Bin He
- & Xiang Zhao
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Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030
Electric vehicle sales goals alone will not achieve light duty vehicle emissions targets. Other actions including decarbonizing the electric grid, mode shifting, vehicle downsizing, reducing travel demand, and accelerating fleet turnover, are needed.
- Maxwell Woody
- , Gregory A. Keoleian
- & Parth Vaishnav
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Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility
Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles with a concurrent transition to clean electricity is essential to achieve U.S. transportation decarbonization goals. Managing travel demand can ease this transition by reducing the need for clean electricity supply. @cghoehne, @nrel, #NRELMobility
- Christopher Hoehne
- , Matteo Muratori
- & Ookie Ma
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Circular wood use can accelerate global decarbonisation but requires cross-sectoral coordination
Cascading and especially circular wood uses enhance climate-change mitigation achieved by forestry. In combination, these measures could cumulatively mitigate 258.8 million tonnes CO2e by 2050 in the UK but implementation barriers must be overcome.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , John R. Healey
- & David Styles
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Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures
The effects of climate change on the yield and aroma of beer hops remains unknown. Here the authors demonstrate a climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of traditional aroma hops across Europe and calls for urgent adaptation measures to stabilize international market chains.
- Martin Mozny
- , Miroslav Trnka
- & Ulf Büntgen
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Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions
Achieving decent living standards for global emerging economies is estimated to lead to an additional 8.6 Gt of CO2 emission with more than half of emerging economies emitting additional CO2 more than the value of their emission reduction commitments
- Jingwen Huo
- , Jing Meng
- & Dabo Guan
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A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming
Will snow become cleaner or dirtier in the future? Using Earth System Model simulations, this study reveals a cleaner snow future and highlights its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt.
- Dalei Hao
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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Sustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation
Sustainable development of blue carbon has increased globally over the past two decades. Global cooperation could enable countries to improve blue carbon sustainable development, increase carbon sequestration, and generate up to $136.34 million in 2030 in economic benefits.
- Cuicui Feng
- , Guanqiong Ye
- & Zhenci Xu
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Costs and health benefits of the rural energy transition to carbon neutrality in China
Electric cooking and air-to-air heat pump adoption in China advances carbon neutrality and the rural energy transition, with the transformation costs offset by monetized health benefits in most provinces.
- Teng Ma
- , Silu Zhang
- & Yang Xie
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The neglected role of abandoned cropland in supporting both food security and climate change mitigation
This work demonstrates how global abandoned cropland is an untapped land resource. If recultivated and reforested strategically, it can provide substantial carbon sequestration and food production potential to support our shared climate and food security goals.
- Qiming Zheng
- , Tim Ha
- & Lian Pin Koh
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A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage
This study indicates that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel in China’s power generation system could reduce the power shortage rate by up to 9% in 2050, and increase system resilience during weather events relative to a zero fossil fuel system.
- Jing-Li Fan
- , Zezheng Li
- & Bo Shen
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Air quality related equity implications of U.S. decarbonization policy
U.S. federal climate policies can reduce air pollutant emissions and associated health impacts from fine particulate matter. However, near-term CO2 reductions alone are insufficient to address racial/ethnic disparities in pollution exposure.
- Paul Picciano
- , Minghao Qiu
- & Noelle E. Selin
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Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions
An analysis of the IPCC AR6 scenarios database explores how quickly coal, oil, and gas production and use should be reduced in line with net-zero goals, and points to the need to adopt phase-out benchmarks alongside other climate mitigation targets.
- Ploy Achakulwisut
- , Peter Erickson
- & Steve Pye
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Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives
Meat and dairy alternatives are promoted for diet sustainability. Here, the authors use a modelling approach to show that replacing 50% of pork, chicken, beef and milk globally with plant-based alternatives can reduce GHG emissions by 6.3 Gt CO2eq year-1 and more than half biodiversity loss by 2050.
- Marta Kozicka
- , Petr Havlík
- & Noel Gurwick
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Accounting for the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage in nature
Efforts to retain or increase land carbon pools are hampered by the risk of loss to natural or human disturbances. The proposed approach to tonne-year accounting could effectively quantify and track the climate value of both temporary and permanent carbon storage.
- H. Damon Matthews
- , Kirsten Zickfeld
- & Amy Luers
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Uncertainty and bias in Liggio et al. (2019) on CO2 emissions from oil sands operations
- John Liggio
- & Shao-Meng Li
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Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
Emerging limitations on climate and low-carbon technology would require adjusting our 15.C climate change mitigation pathways. However, this could increase average annual emissions reductions to around 3GtCO2/year using a broad portfolio of mitigation measures.
- Ajay Gambhir
- , Shivika Mittal
- & Jason A. Lowe
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National quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations
High-resolution satellite data enables a unique verification of national methane emissions worldwide. Global estimates are 63 Tg a−1 for oil-gas, 30% higher than the UNFCCC reports due to under-reporting by four largest emitters, and 33 Tg a−1 for coal, consistent with previous estimates.
- Lu Shen
- , Daniel J. Jacob
- & Jintai Lin
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Truck platooning reshapes greenhouse gas emissions of the integrated vehicle-road infrastructure system
Truck platooning allows for trucks to travel synchronously in close proximity to improve fuel efficiency. Here, authors evaluate the decarbonization effects of platooning on the vehicle-road system at a large-scale road network level revealing a trade-off between emission reduction and cost rise.
- Huailei Cheng
- , Yuhong Wang
- & Tian Jin
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How climate policy commitments influence energy systems and the economies of US states
In the US, states vary in their efforts to address climate change. Stronger state climate policies reduce CO2 emissions without harming the economy, but these reductions are unlikely to meet the goals in the Paris Climate Accord.
- Parrish Bergquist
- & Christopher Warshaw
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Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation
Increased global land precipitation, due to the atmospheric feedbacks of large-scale bioenergy cultivation, may partially compensate the water consumption by such rainfed bioenergy crops at the global scale.
- Zhao Li
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Wei Li
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Global environmental implications of atmospheric methane removal through chlorine-mediated chemistry-climate interactions
Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, has comparable anthropogenic and natural sources, complicating emission control. Increasing reactive chlorine has been proposed for mitigation. This study assesses the global environmental impacts of such proposal.
- Qinyi Li
- , Daphne Meidan
- & Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
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How to make climate-neutral aviation fly
Europe’s aviation must reduce more than just flight CO2 emissions to achieve net-zero. Synthetic fuels and carbon capture and storage could help but decreasing air traffic is crucial due to non-CO2 climate impacts and resource constraints.
- Romain Sacchi
- , Viola Becattini
- & Marco Mazzotti
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Built structures influence patterns of energy demand and CO2 emissions across countries
Extent and spatial patterns of settlements and infrastructures strongly affect resource demand of national economies worldwide. Their influence on final energy and CO2 emissions is almost as large as that of gross domestic product (GDP).
- Helmut Haberl
- , Markus Löw
- & Juan Antonio Duro
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The narrowing gap in developed and developing country emission intensities reduces global trade’s carbon leakage
International trade redistributes production activities to regions with varying emission intensities. This study finds that the convergence of emission intensities between the global South - North and changes in trade patterns have resulted in declining net emissions in trade in the past decade.
- Jing Meng
- , Jingwen Huo
- & Kuishuang Feng
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Endogenous learning for green hydrogen in a sector-coupled energy model for Europe
This study highlights the importance of including learning-by-doing for hydrogen production in energy models. It reveals that scaling up renewable capacities and electrolysis faster than the EU’s REPowerEU Plan can be cost-effective under strict climate targets, reducing hydrogen production costs and shifting from grey to green hydrogen.
- Elisabeth Zeyen
- , Marta Victoria
- & Tom Brown
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Quantitative evaluation of large corporate climate action initiatives shows mixed progress in their first half-decade
More companies are setting climate targets, but detailed evaluations remain scarce, raising questions on their effectiveness. Here, authors assess the progress of 102 of the largest companies in the world by revenue for the period 2015–2019.
- Ivan Ruiz Manuel
- & Kornelis Blok
Engineering biology and climate change mitigation: Policy considerations