Atmospheric dynamics

  • Article
    | Open Access

    How much the potential intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) increases in warmer environments is not well known. Here, the authors show that TC rainfall rates have increased by 1.3% per year between 1998 and 2018, a trend that is mainly driven by stronger rainfall in the outer-core region of TCs.

    • Oscar Guzman
    •  & Haiyan Jiang
  • Article
    | Open Access

    How the Central American mountains influence tropical cyclone (TC) development in the eastern North Pacific is not well understood. Here, the authors use model simulations to show that on a seasonal timescale, these mountains interrupt moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea and as a result, reduce TC activity by up to 35%.

    • Dan Fu
    • , Ping Chang
    •  & Hylke E. Beck
  • Perspective
    | Open Access

    Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skill of ENSO forecasts.

    • James S. Risbey
    • , Dougal T. Squire
    •  & Carly R. Tozer
  • Article
    | Open Access

    How tropical cyclones have varied in intensity and frequency in the past is not well known as longer records are rare. Here, the authors show that changes in observing practices explain the recorded century scale increase in Atlantic major hurricane frequency, and recent increases are not part of a century-scale trend.

    • Gabriel A. Vecchi
    • , Christopher Landsea
    •  & Thomas Knutson
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Despite a ban on ozone depleting substances, ozone depletion during cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere has been increasing in recent decades. Here, the authors show conditions favourable for Arctic ozone depletion could worsen as a response of stratospheric temperature and water to continued release of greenhouse gases.

    • Peter von der Gathen
    • , Rigel Kivi
    •  & Markus Rex
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Gravity waves are observed in Venus atmosphere, but their characteristics are not well-known. Here, the authors show spontaneous generation of gravity waves from the thermal tides in the Venus atmosphere as small-scale gravity waves are resolved in high-resolution general circulation model.

    • Norihiko Sugimoto
    • , Yukiko Fujisawa
    •  & Yoshi-Yuki Hayashi
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Superbolts are powerful, rare lightning events. Here, the authors show simultaneous satellite and ground measurements of a superbolt, and demonstrate different properties of superbolts and lightnings.

    • J.-F. Ripoll
    • , T. Farges
    •  & S. Pédeboy
  • Article
    | Open Access

    It has been suggested that sea surface temperatures in the North Tropical Atlantic exert strong influence on the evolution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, the authors argue that observed statistics are fully consistent with ENSO driving climate variations in the Atlantic and not vice versa.

    • Wenjun Zhang
    • , Feng Jiang
    •  & Axel Timmermann
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial component of the tropical weather system, but forecasting it has been challenging. Here, the authors present a deep learning bias correction method that significantly improves multi-model forecasts of the MJO amplitude and phase for up to four weeks.

    • H. Kim
    • , Y. G. Ham
    •  & S. W. Son
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Long-range predictions of the Asian summer monsoon remain challenging due to its complex atmosphere–land–ocean interactions. Here, the authors show that a large ensemble of model simulations can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead.

    • Yuhei Takaya
    • , Yu Kosaka
    •  & Shuhei Maeda
  • Article
    | Open Access

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Here, the authors show that improved representation of summer equatorial Atlantic variability and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific, relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO.

    • Eleftheria Exarchou
    • , Pablo Ortega
    •  & Chloé Prodhomme
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Atmospheric rivers are responsible for much of the poleward water vapour transport in the mid-latitudes and can cause extreme precipitation after landfall. Here, the authors show that ocean fronts and eddies can influence atmospheric rivers and increase the associated precipitation along the North American west coast.

    • Xue Liu
    • , Xiaohui Ma
    •  & Christina M. Patricola
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The relative roles of the ocean and atmosphere for the Atlantic Niño is poorly understood. Here, we show that its seasonality is governed by atmospheric diabatic heating that is associated with the seasonal migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone.

    • Hyacinth C. Nnamchi
    • , Mojib Latif
    •  & Ingo Richter
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Many climate models failed to reproduce the eastern Pacific cooling that has been linked to slower warming in the early 20th century. Here, the authors present a feedback mechanism between the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic which contributes to this bias as it further dampens the Pacific cooling response in models.

    • Chen Li
    • , Dietmar Dommenget
    •  & Shayne McGregor
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Solar insolation is not equally distributed on the Earth’s surface and such imbalances influence the atmospheric circulation. Here, the authors show that latitudinal insolation gradients synchronized the hydroclimate in the Northern mid-latitudes and the African and South American Monsoons throughout the Holocene.

    • Michael Deininger
    • , Frank McDermott
    •  & Denis Scholz
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Monsoon systems have strong impacts on precipitation and food security over large areas of the world. Here, the authors show that plant responses to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere play a key role in modulating seasonal rainfall and water resources over global land monsoon regions.

    • Jiangpeng Cui
    • , Shilong Piao
    •  & Gabriel J. Kooperman
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Dryness stresses vegetation and can lead to declines in productivity, increased emission of carbon, and plant mortality, but the drivers of this stress remain unclear. Here the authors show that soil moisture plays a dominant role relative to atmospheric water demand over most global land vegetated areas.

    • Laibao Liu
    • , Lukas Gudmundsson
    •  & Sonia I. Seneviratne
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Proxy reconstructions show a decreasing trend from the Middle to Late Holocene, which conflicts with model results showing an increasing trend. Statistical analysis of model output shows that these conflicting results originate from two distinct modes of variability, which dominate at different regions and times.

    • Jürgen Bader
    • , Johann Jungclaus
    •  & Martin Claussen
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Extreme events high up in the winter stratosphere are known to influence our weather and their predictability has potential to improve seasonal weather forecasts. Here, the authors examine factors that influence their generation and highlight a previously unrecognised sensitivity to the upper equatorial stratosphere.

    • L. J. Gray
    • , M. J. Brown
    •  & J. Anstey
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Dust emissions are likely to increase significantly when land vegetation is absent, such as during the Precambrian period. Here, the authors use climate simulations to find that high dust emissions in the Precambrian could have cooled the global climate by ~10 °C.

    • Peng Liu
    • , Yonggang Liu
    •  & Yongyun Hu
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña episodes in the tropical Pacific is often not well represented in models. Here, the authors show that this asymmetry is related to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating and that a realistic representation of this process can potentially improve tropical climate projections.

    • Michiya Hayashi
    • , Fei-Fei Jin
    •  & Malte F. Stuecker
  • Article
    | Open Access

    How climate change affects the translation speed of tropical cyclones has been the subject of intensive debate. Here, the authors use models to show that future regional changes in the steering winds lead to faster-moving tropical cyclones as they make landfall in Texas.

    • Pedram Hassanzadeh
    • , Chia-Ying Lee
    •  & Laurence Y. Yeung
  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors investigate in the influence of atmospheric dust on the habitability of exoplanets. They find that atmospheric dust may postpone planetary water loss; for tidally locked planets in particular, dust can significantly widen the habitable zone by cooling the day side and warming the night side.

    • Ian A. Boutle
    • , Manoj Joshi
    •  & Krisztian Kohary
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Model biases and internal variability are a cause for uncertainties in climate projections. Here, the authors show that 45% of projected uncertainty in the western Pacific Subtropical High can be reduced by correcting sea surface temperature biases in the equatorial Pacific and beneath marine stratocumulus clouds.

    • Xiaolong Chen
    • , Tianjun Zhou
    •  & Minghuai Wang
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The authors analyze a system of multi-layered hazes above Saturn’s hexagonal-wave cloud tops in the visual range. Analyses suggest the formation to be caused by condensation processes, and the vertical distribution of stacked layers by the upward propagation of internal gravity waves.

    • A. Sánchez-Lavega
    • , A. García-Muñoz
    •  & J. Peralta
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Tropical cyclones can cause severe damage, in particular through flooding of coastal areas. Here, the authors show that in addition to known impacts, tropical cyclone rainbands can cause meteotsunami waves that can contribute significantly to the total water levels and hence flooding risks.

    • Luming Shi
    • , Maitane Olabarrieta
    •  & John C. Warner
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The authors here present the diurnal tides of dust within the southern Martian atmosphere. The dust tides imply a fast meridional exchange of heat and materials on Mars and allow water content near the summer pole to be rapidly transported to the middle latitudes in the nighttime which is then lifted by daytime deep convection.

    • Zhaopeng Wu
    • , Tao Li
    •  & Jun Cui
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Models show a cooler surface temperature response to deforestation than observations which has been attributed to uncertainties in the models. A comparison of satellite observations and model experiments shows that the disagreement is due to the role of atmospheric feedbacks, which are not well captured in the observational space-for-time approach.

    • Liang Chen
    •  & Paul A. Dirmeyer
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Cracks in Arctic sea ice (leads) are becoming more prevalent and widespread, yet studies regarding their impacts on clouds are limited. Here, contrary to the present understanding, diverse observations and modelling simulations show that higher leads concentrations do not necessarily result in more low clouds.

    • Xia Li
    • , Steven K. Krueger
    •  & Sally Benson
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Wind changes the surface of the Earth, but the surface characteristics of the planet also impact the winds above it. Here, the authors propose a feedback process in which wind erosion in the western Gobi Desert alters the thermal properties of the surface, which in turn increases near-surface winds.

    • Jordan T. Abell
    • , Alex Pullen
    •  & Gisela Winckler
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The existence of regular decadal or longer climate oscillations has been the subject of intensive discussion. Here, statistical analysis of observational data and a large ensemble of model simulations show no evidence for longer-term internal oscillations that are distinguishable from climatic noise.

    • Michael E. Mann
    • , Byron A. Steinman
    •  & Sonya K. Miller
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Past Indian summer monsoon (ISM) changes are not well understood. The application of an energetic framework to a transient model simulation shows that ISM influences have changed in the past, with rising water vapor more important during deglaciation, whereas cloud feedbacks dominated during the Holocene.

    • Chetankumar Jalihal
    • , Jayaraman Srinivasan
    •  & Arindam Chakraborty
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Aerosol-cloud interactions are a large source of uncertainty in radiative forcing estimates. Here, the authors show that the radiative effects of clouds are influenced by a combination of aerosol particle distribution, environmental conditions and atmosphere dynamics.

    • S. J. Lowe
    • , D. G. Partridge
    •  & I. Riipinen
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Gigantic jets, lightning discharges originating from tropical thunderstorms that can reach the base of the ionosphere at 90 km altitude, have not been captured using high-speed video cameras before. Here, the first such images are reported, showing a step-wise evolution of gigantic jets during their rising phase.

    • Oscar A. van der Velde
    • , Joan Montanyà
    •  & Steven A. Cummer
  • Article
    | Open Access

    How the spatial patterns of deep convection affect the large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere remains an open question. Here, it is shown that if convection along the equator is clustered, the tropical rain belt widens and exhibits a double peak structure.

    • Max Popp
    •  & Sandrine Bony
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding will increase under climate change. Here the authors estimate the effects of sea level rise and tropical cyclone climatology change on late–21st–century flood hazards along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and find that the effect of tropical cyclone change could surpass the effect of sea level rise at some areas in the Gulf of Mexico.

    • Reza Marsooli
    • , Ning Lin
    •  & Kairui Feng
  • Article
    | Open Access

    While it is known that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences tropical cyclones, but little is known about a reverse effect. Here, data and model output shows that tropical cyclones can affect ENSO with a lead of 3 months, especially contributing to a significantly more intense El Niño in the winter months.

    • Qiuyun Wang
    • , Jianping Li
    •  & Yidan Xu
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Thunderstorms are commonly represented through simplified parametrizations in weather and climate models. Here it is shown that an increase in model resolution over West Africa, enabling the explicit modeling of Sahelian convective systems, can improve 5–8 day tropical and mid-latitude weather forecasts.

    • Gregor Pante
    •  & Peter Knippertz