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Do molecularly targeted agents in oncology have reduced attrition rates?

Nature Reviews Drug Discovery volume 8, pages 15–16 (2009)Cite this article

The literature reporting attrition rates in oncology is far from consistent, with many differing values quoted1,2,3,4,5,6. Such differences may be due to the way the data have been generated or analysed, or the size and time frame of the study. For instance, attrition rates for agents developed by major pharmaceutical companies may be expected to be different to those for small companies, owing to different motivational drivers, resources and sizes of pipelines. Within oncology, the biotechnology sector has a strong representation, and to analyse only the top pharmaceutical companies would not provide a true representation of attrition rates.

The review by Kola and Landis1 reported that across differing disease indications there were remarkable differences in attrition rates. Cardiovascular disease, for example, had the most successful drug development path, with approximately 20% of agents that enter the clinic subsequently reaching registration (a 1 in 5 success rate), whereas oncology had an attrition rate of approximately 95% (that is, only a 1 in 20 success rate). By contrast, the report by DiMasi et al.2 stated that the attrition rate for oncology drugs was 74% from Phase I trial initiation to registration (a 1 in 4 success rate).

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Figure 1: Number of agents in clinical development with oncology as the primary indication in the period 1995–2007.
Figure 2: Phase transition probability including projects with no development reported (NDR).
Figure 3: Phase transition probability excluding projects with no development reported (NDR).

References

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ian Walker is a Licensing Manager at Cancer Research Technology Ltd, Sardinia House, Sardinia Street, London WC2A 3NL, UK.,

    Ian Walker

  2. Herbie Newell is Director of Translational Research at Cancer Research UK, Princess House, 37–39 Kingsway, London WC2B 6TP, UK.,

    Herbie Newell

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Correspondence to Ian Walker.

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Competing interests

Herbie Newell is an employee of Cancer Research UK and Newcastle University, UK. He receives an honorarium as Editor of the journal Cancer Chemotherapy and Pharmacology, and holds research grant funding from UK and European charity and governmental bodies, and Astex Therapeutics and AstraZeneca/KuDOS Pharmaceuticals. Ian Walker is an employee of Cancer Research Technology, with no conflict of interest.

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Supplementary information S1 (table)

List of oncology agents analysed (PDF 300 kb)

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Walker, I., Newell, H. Do molecularly targeted agents in oncology have reduced attrition rates?. Nat Rev Drug Discov 8, 15–16 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd2758

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