Comment

Population ageing is expected to lead to significant rises in climate risks because vulnerability rises sharply throughout people’s later years. When assessing the vulnerability of older people, however, what’s important isn’t the number of years someone has lived (i.e. “chronological age”) but rather their functional abilities and characteristics; the latter is better captured by remaining life expectancy or “prospective age”. Here, we show that assessing growth in the size of older populations using a prospective rather than chronological age perspective can help avoid overestimates of future risks to climate change. Compared to an analysis based on chronological age, the projected increase in the vulnerable population share seen in the prospective age analysis is considerably lower. The differences between the two perspectives increase with age, decrease with country income level, and are larger in futures that give priority to sustainable development. Thus, while ageing certainly poses major challenges to societies facing climate change, these may be smaller than thought. Prospective age offers a relatively easily implemented alternative for projecting future vulnerability that better accounts for rising longevity.

Rainfall enhancement has historically been overlooked as a key component of sustainability and climate change adaptation strategies. In this comment, we argue that rainfall enhancement is emerging as a viable contributor to addressing growing water security concerns in a warming climate. We specifically consider current progress and future directions for rainfall enhancement applications based on the experience of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with its national decade-long operational cloud seeding program and its grant-based international research and development program.

Population ageing is one of the most challenging social and economic issues facing governments in the twenty-first century¹. Yet the compounding challenges of people living longer while also coping with the impacts of climate change has been subject to less examination. Here, we show that often-used binary definitions of”vulnerable” older communities – such as people over the age of 65 – can lead to the underestimation of future risks from extreme weather in a warming climate. Within this broad grouping, successively older age groups not only exhibit higher vulnerability to the impacts of climate extremes, but they also show more rapid growth in the future. Lower income countries are more likely to underestimate future climate risks if simplistic classifications of vulnerable older communities persist.