Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions

Abstract

A threat of irreversible damage should prompt action to mitigate climate change, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which serves as a basis for international climate policy. CO2-induced climate change is known to be largely irreversible on timescales of many centuries1, as simulated global mean temperature remains approximately constant for such periods following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions while thermosteric sea level continues to rise1,2,3,4,5,6. Here we use simulations with the Canadian Earth System Model to show that ongoing regional changes in temperature and precipitation are significant, following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions in 2100, despite almost constant global mean temperatures. Moreover, our projections show warming at intermediate depths in the Southern Ocean that is many times larger by the year 3000 than that realized in 2100. We suggest that a warming of the intermediate-depth ocean around Antarctica at the scale simulated for the year 3000 could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would be associated with a rise in sea level of several metres2,7,8.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Carbon dioxide emissions and uptake by the atmosphere, land and ocean.
Figure 2: Time series of the climate response to a cessation of CO2 emissions.
Figure 3: Simulated patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change before and after a cessation of emissions.
Figure 4: Ocean temperature change before and after a cessation of emissions.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Solomon, S., Plattner, G. K., Knutti, R. & Friedlingstein, P. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 1704–1709 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Meehl, G. A. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 747–845 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Matthews, H. D. & Caldeira, K. Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L04705 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Lowe, J. A. et al. How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming? Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 014012 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Frölicher, T. L. & Joos, F. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Clim. Dynam. 35, 1439–1459 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Eby, M. et al. Lifetime of anthropogenic climate change: Millennial time scales of potential CO2 and surface temperature perturbations. J. Clim. 22, 2501–2511 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Walker, D. P. et al. Oceanic heat transport onto the Amundsen Sea shelf through a submarine glacial trough. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L02602 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Thomas, R. H., Sanderson, T. J. O. & Rose, K. E. Effect of climatic warming on the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 277, 355–358 (1979).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Arora, V. K. et al. The effect of terrestrial photosynthesis down regulation on the twentieth-century carbon budget simulated with the CCCma earth system model. J. Clim. 22, 6066–6088 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Danabasoglu, G. & Gent, P. R. Equilibrium climate sensitivity: Is it accurate to use a slab ocean model? J. Clim. 22, 2494–2499 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Held, I. M. et al. Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning abruptly to preindustrial forcing. J. Clim. 23, 2418–2427 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Allen, M. R. & Ingram, W. J. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419, 224–232 (2002).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Yang, F. L., Kumar, A., Schlesinger, M. E. & Wang, W. Q. Intensity of hydrological cycles in warmer climates. J. Clim. 16, 2419–2423 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Rignot, E. & Jacobs, S. S. Rapid bottom melting widespread near Antarctic ice sheet grounding lines. Science 296, 2020–2023 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Katz, R. F. & Worster, M. G. Stability of ice-sheet grounding lines. Proc. R. Soc. A 466, 1597–1620 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Bamber, J. L., Riva, R. E. M., Vermeersen, B. L. A. & LeBrocq, A. M. Reassessment of the potential sea-level rise from a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 324, 901–903 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Payne, A. J., Vieli, A., Shepherd, A. P., Wingham, D. J. & Rignot, E. Recent dramatic thinning of largest West Antarctic ice stream triggered by oceans. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L23401 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Velicogna, I. Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L19503 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Fyfe, J. C., Saenko, O. A., Zickfeld, K., Eby, M. & Weaver, A. J. The role of poleward-intensifying winds on Southern Ocean warming. J. Clim. 20, 5391–5400 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Thoma, M., Jenkins, A., Holland, D. & Jacobs, S. Modelling circumpolar deep water intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18602 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Morris, E. M. & Vaughan, D. G. in Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability: Historical and Paleoenvironmental Perspectives (eds Domack, E. W. et al.) 61–68 (Antarctic Research Series, Vol. 79, American Geophysical Union, 2003).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Vaughan, D. G. & Doake, C. S. M. Recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature 379, 328–331 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C., Fahnestock, M. & Bohlander, J. The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula. J. Glaciol. 46, 516–530 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Blackstock, J. J. et al. Climate engineering responses to climate emergencies. Novim Preprint at http://arxiv.org/pdf/0907.5140 (2009).

  25. Zahariev, K., Christian, J. R. & Denman, K. L. Preindustrial, historical, and fertilization simulations using a global ocean carbon model with new parameterizations of iron limitation, calcification, and N2 fixation. Prog. Oceanogr. 77, 56–82 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Denman, K. L. & Peña, M. A. A coupled 1-D biological/physical model of the northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean with iron limitation. Deep-Sea Res II 46, 2877–2908 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Arora, V. K. Simulating energy and carbon fluxes over winter wheat using coupled land surface and terrestrial ecosystem models. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 118, 21–47 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Arora, V. K. & Boer, G. J. A parameterization of leaf phenology for the terrestrial ecosystem component of climate models. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 39–59 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Marland, G., Boden, T. A. & Andres, R. J. in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008).

  30. Arora, V. K. & Boer, G. J. Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 3327–3348 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank S. Solomon, C. Curry and G. Boer for their comments and advice on the manuscript. We thank W. Lee and D. Yang for assistance with processing model output.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

N.P.G. designed the experiment, analysed model output, and wrote most of the paper. V.K.A. carried out the CanESM1 simulations, and wrote part of the Methods section. K.Z. contributed to the experimental design and analysis. S.J.M. contributed text and expertise on ice sheet implications. W.J.M. analysed ocean model output and contributed expertise on ocean changes.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nathan P. Gillett.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 993 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gillett, N., Arora, V., Zickfeld, K. et al. Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions. Nature Geosci 4, 83–87 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1047

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1047

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing