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Volume 9 Issue 2, February 2019

Bluetongue transmission risk

Sheep are severely affected by bluetongue, an insect-borne disease. In this issue, Jones and colleagues find the risk of bluetongue is set to expand northward under future climate conditions, with larger and longer outbreaks expected as this century progresses. Shown on the cover is a flock of mule sheep in the United Kingdom.

See Jones et al.

Image: Alexander Winter. Cover Design: Tulsi Voralia.


  • Global emissions rose in 2018 with the USA increasing its emissions after three years of decline. Understanding the contributing factors is not enough — action at all scales is needed.



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  • Carbon mitigation efforts often focus on the world’s poorest people, dealing with topics such as food and energy security, and increased emissions potential from projected population, income and consumption growth. However, more policies are needed that target people at the opposite end of the social ladder — the super-rich.

    • Ilona M. Otto
    • Kyoung Mi Kim
    • Wolfgang Lucht
  • The current narrow focus on afforestation in climate policy runs the risk of compromising long-term carbon storage, human adaptation and efforts to preserve biodiversity. An emphasis on diverse, intact natural ecosystems — as opposed to fast-growing tree plantations — will help nations to deliver Paris Agreement goals and much more.

    • Nathalie Seddon
    • Beth Turner
    • Cécile A. J. Girardin


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Research Highlights

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News & Views

  • Climate change adaptation encompasses a wide range of behaviours in response to a variety of short- and long-term risks. Now meta-analyses identify which motivational factors are consistent predictors of adaptation action, and which are more context-specific.

    • Andrea Louise Taylor
    News & Views
  • In the Southern Ocean, climate-driven contraction of Antarctic krill from open ocean toward the frozen continent is a perilous journey. Research now shows that a poleward shift in distribution is accompanied by diminished spatial less habitat, lower densities and larger mean size of adults.

    • Margaret M. McBride
    News & Views
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions are set to rise again in 2018. New research from the United States Geological Survey casts light on emissions from fuels produced on federal lands and finds that they accounted for over 20% of US emissions in recent years.

    • Nathan Ratledge
    • Steven J. Davis
    • Laura Zachary
    News & Views
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  • Near-term climate predictions bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and long-term projections. This Perspective outlines the challenges and opportunities for near-term climate prediction, highlighting the need for co-ordinated efforts to benefit society.

    • Yochanan Kushnir
    • Adam A. Scaife
    • Bo Wu
  • Earth system models project likely future climates, however, evaluation of their output is challenging. This Perspective discusses new evaluation approaches, considering both simulations and observations, to ensure credible information for decision-making.

    • Veronika Eyring
    • Peter M. Cox
    • Mark S. Williamson
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Review Articles

  • In this Review, a Bayesian framework is used to explain climate change belief updating, and the evidence required to support claims of directional motivated reasoning versus a model in which people aim for accurate beliefs, but vary in how they assess information credibility.

    • James N. Druckman
    • Mary C. McGrath
    Review Article
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Matters Arising

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  • Meta-analyses with data from 106 studies show that descriptive norms, negative affect, perceived self-efficacy and outcome efficacy are most strongly associated with climate change adaptation, whereas knowledge and experience are only weakly associated with adaptive behaviour.

    • Anne M. van Valkengoed
    • Linda Steg
  • Accurate emissions data are required to monitor progress towards climate goals. Firms’ self-reported emissions show convergence with independently verified emissions in two pilot emissions trading systems in China over several years, suggesting the effectiveness of oversight and third-party audits.

    • Da Zhang
    • Qin Zhang
    • Xiliang Zhang
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Amendments & Corrections

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