Volume 8 Issue 3, March 2018

Volume 8 Issue 3

Where king penguins reign

Species’ responses to climate change are contingent on the complexity and fragmentation of their habitats. Ecological niche modelling is used to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean under climate change.

See Cristofariet al.

Image: Robin Cristofari. Cover Design: Tulsi Voralia.

Editorial

  • Editorial |

    Updated editorial policies and reporting initiatives aim to improve transparency and reproducibility for published papers.

Comment

  • Comment |

    Well-intended climate actions are confounding each other. Cities must take a strategic and integrated approach to lock into a climate-resilient and low-emission future.

    • Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
    • , Cynthia Rosenzweig
    • , Richard J. Dawson
    • , Roberto Sanchez Rodriguez
    • , Xuemei Bai
    • , Aliyu Salisu Barau
    • , Karen C. Seto
    •  & Shobhakar Dhakal
  • Comment |

    Meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement will require rapid and massive decarbonization of cities, as well as adaptation. Capacity and requirement differs across cities, with challenges and opportunities for transformational action in both the Global North and South.

    • William Solecki
    • , Cynthia Rosenzweig
    • , Shobhakar Dhakal
    • , Debra Roberts
    • , Aliyu Salisu Barau
    • , Seth Schultz
    •  & Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
  • Comment |

    The Paris Agreement highlights the need for local climate leadership. The University Of California’s approach to deep decarbonization offers lessons in efficiency, alternative fuels and electrification. Bending the emissions curve globally requires efforts that blend academic insights with practical solutions.

    • David G. Victor
    • , Ahmed Abdulla
    • , David Auston
    • , Wendell Brase
    • , Jack Brouwer
    • , Karl Brown
    • , Steven J. Davis
    • , Carrie V. Kappel
    • , Alan Meier
    • , Mark Modera
    • , Rebecca Zarin Pass
    • , David Phillips
    • , Jordan Sager
    • , David Weil
    • , Alan Meier
    • , Steven J. Davis
    • , David G. Victor
    • , Karl Brown
    • , Lisa McNeilly
    • , Mark Modera
    • , Rebecca Zarin Pass
    • , Jordan Sager
    • , David Weil
    • , David Auston
    • , Ahmed Abdulla
    • , Fred Bockmiller
    • , Wendell Brase
    • , Jack Brouwer
    • , Charles Diamond
    • , Emily Dowey
    • , John Elliott
    • , Rowena Eng
    • , Stephen Kaffka
    • , Carrie V. Kappel
    • , Margarita Kloss
    • , Igor Mezić
    • , Josh Morejohn
    • , David Phillips
    • , Evan Ritzinger
    • , Steven Weissman
    •  & Jim Williams

Books & Arts

Research Highlights

News & Views

  • News & Views |

    People are influenced by second-order beliefs — beliefs about the beliefs of others. New research finds that citizens in the US and China systematically underestimate popular support for taking action to curb climate change. Fortunately, they seem willing and able to correct their misperceptions.

    • John T. Jost
  • News & Views |

    Environmental scarcity caused by climate change has been implicated as a driver of violent conflict. Now, research shows significant bias in the regions analysed for climate–conflict links. This may limit understanding of the socioeconomic and political conditions in which such conflict occurs, and how these conflicts could be prevented.

    • Cullen S. Hendrix
  • News & Views |

    The most commonly used method for representing lightning in global atmospheric models generally predicts lightning increases in a warmer world. A new scheme finds the opposite result, directly challenging the predictive skill of an old stalwart.

    • Lee T. Murray

Perspectives

  • Perspective |

    Flood impact and recovery is influenced by behavioural responses. This Perspective describes how integrating human behaviour and risk perception into flood-risk assessment models may improve identification of effective risk-management strategies.

    • J. C. J. H. Aerts
    • , W. J. Botzen
    • , K. C. Clarke
    • , S. L. Cutter
    • , J. W. Hall
    • , B. Merz
    • , E. Michel-Kerjan
    • , J. Mysiak
    • , S. Surminski
    •  & H. Kunreuther

Letters

  • Letter |

    A systematic review shows that climate–conflict research tends to focus on a few accessible regions characterized by violent conflict rather than those most vulnerable to climate change, which may inflate the perceived prevalence of links between climate change and violent conflict.

    • Courtland Adams
    • , Tobias Ide
    • , Jon Barnett
    •  & Adrien Detges
  • Letter |

    It has been suggested that lightning activity will increase with anthropogenic warming. However, the use of a physically based lightning parameterization—incorporating cloud ice fluxes—reveals global flash rates in 2100 may decrease by 15% under RCP8.5.

    • Declan L. Finney
    • , Ruth M. Doherty
    • , Oliver Wild
    • , David S. Stevenson
    • , Ian A. MacKenzie
    •  & Alan M. Blyth
  • Letter |

    Satellite measures of vegetation greenness, together with animal stocking data and key climatic factors, reveal interannual precipitation variability to be a significant constraint on global pasture productivity.

    • Lindsey L. Sloat
    • , James S. Gerber
    • , Leah H. Samberg
    • , William K. Smith
    • , Mario Herrero
    • , Laerte G. Ferreira
    • , Cécile M. Godde
    •  & Paul C. West
  • Letter |

    Agricultural soils can be targeted for carbon (C) sequestration. Research considering C and nitrogen (N) dynamics confirms that significant CO2 mitigation can be achieved, but after 20–30 years N inputs also need controlling to prevent the C sequestration being offset by N2O emissions.

    • Emanuele Lugato
    • , Adrian Leip
    •  & Arwyn Jones
  • Letter |

    A synthesis of animal phenology shows that temperature primarily drives mid-latitude responses, with precipitation important at lower latitudes. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts.

    • Jeremy M. Cohen
    • , Marc J. Lajeunesse
    •  & Jason R. Rohr
  • Letter |

    The complexity of ecosystems could influence how warmer waters and acidification affect marine biota. In this study, whilst individual behaviours were affected by increased CO2, community dynamics buffered the impacts on fish and crustaceans.

    • Silvan U. Goldenberg
    • , Ivan Nagelkerken
    • , Emma Marangon
    • , Angélique Bonnet
    • , Camilo M. Ferreira
    •  & Sean D. Connell

Articles

  • Article |

    Large-scale sea-level rise is primarily dominated by thermal expansion and ice melt. However, wave processes are found to significantly influence local sea-level trends at the coast, amplifying or reducing steric and eustatic contributions.

    • Angélique Melet
    • , Benoit Meyssignac
    • , Rafael Almar
    •  & Gonéri Le Cozannet
  • Article |

    Ecological niche modelling of king penguins in the Southern Ocean, validated with population genomics and palaeodemography data, is used to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia under climate change.

    • Robin Cristofari
    • , Xiaoming Liu
    • , Francesco Bonadonna
    • , Yves Cherel
    • , Pierre Pistorius
    • , Yvon Le Maho
    • , Virginie Raybaud
    • , Nils Christian Stenseth
    • , Céline Le Bohec
    •  & Emiliano Trucchi

Amendments & Corrections