Volume 8 Issue 1, January 2018

Investors will play a major role, whether active or passive, in climate change mitigation. To enable prudent decision-making, we propose three physically based engagement principles that could be used to assess whether an investment is consistent with a long-term climate goal.

Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

The Paris Agreement is based on emission scenarios that move from a sluggish phase-out of fossil fuels to large-scale late-century negative emissions. Alternative pathways of early deployment of negative emission technologies need to be considered to ensure that climate targets are reached safely and sustainably.

Climate change could increase fire risk across most of the managed boreal forest. Decreasing this risk by increasing the proportion of broad-leaved tree species is an overlooked mitigation–adaption strategy with multiple benefits.

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty about future climate change is the path greenhouse gas emissions will take. Now research using a coupled model of human behaviour and climate finds that individual behaviour can significantly alter emissions trajectories and global temperature.

The thinning of floating ice shelves around Antarctica enhances upstream ice flow, contributing to sea-level rise. Ice-shelf thinning is now shown to influence glacial movement over much larger distances than previously thought.

Well-mixed water around 500 m depth in the Southern Ocean has been warming. Now research reveals how strengthening wind increases the volume of the warm water.

Completely stopping fossil fuel use may not be enough to avoid dangerous climate change. Recent research on the mitigation potential of conservation, restoration, and improved land management demonstrates that natural solutions can reduce emissions and remove atmospheric CO₂ while safeguarding food security and biodiversity.

Photosynthesis is the foundation for almost all known life, but quantifying it at scales above a single plant is difficult. A new satellite illuminates plants’ molecular machinery at much-improved spatial resolution, taking us one step closer to combined ‘inside–outside’ insights into large-scale photosynthesis.

Effective integration of climate knowledge into policy requires trust between climate science producers and users. This Perspective identifies risks associated with the dynamics of trust at the climate science–policy interface and how they may be overcome.

Some of the predicted impacts of climate change on crops may be avoided by exploiting existing crop diversity. This Perspective examines this possibility for wine grapes where about 1% of diversity accounts for more than 80% of cultivated areas in some countries.

The cost of preserving ecosystem storage of carbon varies depending on local land-use and socio-political pressures. A survey of experts suggests a cost-minimizing distribution would be more effective for mitigation than equitable distribution.

Apparent temperature, the perceived temperature from air temperature, humidity and wind combined, is projected to increase faster than air temperature. Thermal discomfort will see greater increases in summertime, outweighing wintertime decreases.

Combining historical aerial surveys, expedition photographs, and both spy and modern satellite imagery reveals a pronounced retreat of peripheral glaciers in east and west Greenland, linked to changes in precipitation associated with the NAO.

Ice loss from Antarctica is sensitive to changes in ice shelves. Finite-element modelling reveals that localized ice-shelf thinning, particularly in locations vulnerable to warm water intrusion, can have far-reaching impacts via tele-buttressing.

The subduction of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) moves heat into the upper ocean. Changes in wind forcing has thickened, deepened and warmed SAMW; increases in wind forcing could further deepen this water mass, increasing ocean heat content.

A present-day bias identified in climate projections means that future tropical rainfall may be underestimated. This bias can be addressed by constraining projections with observations.

Arid regions are projected to expand in the future. An ensemble of climate model simulations reveals that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C can markedly reduce the area undergoing, and thus the population exposed to, aridification.

Climate change is predicted to increase soil carbon losses. However, manipulation experiments suggest detritivore feeding activity — a key driver of organic matter decomposition — will decline with warming and drying, reducing positive soil feedbacks.

Human behaviour is an important driver of emissions. A system-dynamics model that couples a psychological model of behaviour with a model of emissions and climate change shows that behaviour can influence global temperature in the year 2100 by up to 1.5 °C.

Global cooperation is required to address climate change. In the Arctic region, the abatement of black carbon can be achieved by countries taking self-interested action, whereas methane abatement requires more cooperation due to its diffuse geographical impacts.