Volume 6 Issue 9, September 2016

The recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO₂ concentration this year. Here, using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate model, we forecast that the CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa will for the first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes.

Earth's surface gained 115,000 km² of water and 173,000 km² of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km² of water and 33,700 km² of land in coastal areas. Here, we analyse the gains and losses through the Deltares Aqua Monitor — an open tool that detects land and water changes around the globe.

Understanding how the overall risks of extreme events are changing in a warming world requires both a thermodynamic perspective and an understanding of changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Some Pacific Island communities are already moving themselves beyond rising tides, but there's nothing simple about how, why or when they're doing it.

The ratio of global temperature change to cumulative emissions is relatively constant up to two trillion tonnes of carbon emissions. Now a new modelling study suggests that the concept of a constant ratio is even applicable to higher cumulative carbon emissions, with important implications for future warming.

The Earth's climate evolves in response to both externally forced changes and internal variability. Now research suggests that both drivers combine to set the pace of Arctic warming caused by large-scale sea-ice loss.

There are discernible differences in climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. The extent of countries' near-term mitigation ambition will determine the success of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal.

In this Review the cumulative effects of anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change are considered. Including how climate alters nitrogen cycling and availability, and the impact of nitrogen addition on carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

Businesses are increasingly undertaking initiatives that increase profit and provide environmental benefits. They risk backlash, however, as people are shown to respond negatively to the notion of a business profiting from such initiatives.

Many campaigns to get people to purchase sustainable products highlight self-interest. However, experiments now show that emphasizing the environmental benefit of such goods may be more effective.

Long-term model simulations show that a linear relationship between atmospheric warming and cumulative CO₂ emissions holds up to 5 trillion tonnes of carbon (EgC), the estimated total fossil fuel resource in the absence of mitigation efforts.

This study suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase influences how much sea-ice loss contributes to Arctic amplification, with warming being larger during the negative phase with greater sea-ice loss.

This study shows how failure to capture system dynamics can be detected in climate model predictions. This information should improve model projections and facilitate better decision-making.

A 20-year grassland experiment shows links between plant functional traits and the climate. Species favoured by extended growing seasons have taller canopies and faster assimilation rates, at the expense of those with high leaf-tissue investment.

Aridity is expected to increase globally in a warmer world. Research now suggests that this is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and plant responses to increased atmospheric CO₂.

Droughts are intensifying under climate change. Research into the resilience of stream food webs to drought now shows that ‘rewiring’ of food web structure in the face of species losses helps to buffer changes to the overall network structure.

The people that are most concerned about climate change do not always take action. Behavioural modelling shows that concerned citizens are more likely to act if they believe similar people are taking action, and that their action will make a difference.

A model comparison shows that integrated and sector-specific models suggest different results for various climate impacts. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation.