Volume 6 Issue 3, March 2016

Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation ranks as the most impactful risk to society, according to the 2016 Global Risks Report from the World Economic Forum.

The Paris Agreement contains an ambition to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, changing the context for policy-relevant research and extending a challenge to the IPCC and researchers.

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims.

Insights about climate are being uncovered thanks to improved capacities to observe ocean salinity, an essential climate variable. However, cracks are beginning to appear in the ocean observing system that require prompt attention if we are to maintain the existing, hard-won capacity into the near future.

Unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds has occurred in recent decades, while both the Indian and Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures warmed. Now a study suggests that the Atlantic Ocean warming is driving this Pacific trade wind strengthening and the warming of the Indian Ocean.

Arctic temperatures are increasing because of long- and short-lived climate forcers, with reduction of the short-lived species potentially offering some quick mitigation. Now a regional assessment reveals the emission locations of these short-lived species and indicates international co-operation is needed to develop an effective mitigation plan.

This Perspective links climate change and the distribution of wealth. Using an 'inclusive wealth' framework, it is shown that climate change could dramatically reallocate wealth, with important implications for sustainable development.

Estimates of carbon budgets compatible with limiting warming to below specific temperature limits are reviewed, and reasons underlying their differences discussed along with their respective strengths and limitations.

In this Perspective it is argued that coastal marsh vulnerability is often overstated because assessments generally neglect feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, as well as the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Rigorous measurement of adaptation policies is crucial to implementing successful climate policy. Policy analysis of 41 countries shows an 87% increase in adaptation initiatives since 2010, suggesting that concrete adoption of such practices is growing.

A game theory experiment shows that it is easier to reach an agreement to avert the worst impacts of climate change when a catastrophic threshold is known. It also shows that countries’ use of strategic reasoning puts such agreements at risk.

Modelling allows estimation of aerosol–climate feedbacks on the Earth’s radiative balance and suggests that climate change may increase aerosol burden and surface concentration, negatively affecting future air quality.

The dipole-like trend of tropical sea surface temperature is investigated and this study finds it to be initiated in the Atlantic Ocean. Atlantic warming drives wind and circulation changes and influences Pacific Ocean surface temperatures.

This study uses model projections of the open water season (for 1920–2100) to investigate Arctic sea-ice decline. Nearshore regions began shifting from pre-industrial conditions in 1990, and human influence is projected to emerge in 2040.

Arctic temperatures are most sensitive to emissions of short-lived climate forcers from a small number of Arctic nations (Russia and Nordic countries) that are also the most impacted by this warming, easing the implementation of mitigation strategies.

This study considers how large-scale application of solar panels will affect climate. Electricity generation leads to regional cooling but this is countered by the power’s use, affecting global circulation patterns with changes in regional rainfall.

Research integrating experimental data and modelling to improve representation of plant physiological thresholds infers largely temperature-driven loss of conifer trees by 2100 across the southwestern USA and much of the Northern Hemisphere.

Carbon payments for afforestation can help mitigate climate change and declining biodiversity. This paper evaluates 14 policy mechanisms for supplying carbon and biodiversity benefits through reforestation in Australia’s 85.3 Mha of agricultural land.

Satellite-derived estimates of increases in terrestrial net primary productivity are less than half of those derived from Earth system models. This discrepancy is explained by over-sensitivity of Earth system models to atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.

The IPCC summaries written for policymakers are meant to communicate findings to a wide audience. Textual analysis shows that these reports continue to have low readability, in contrast with media coverage.

Increases in temperature extremes are of major concern for agricultural production. However, this study identifies a connection between agricultural intensification and less extreme summer temperatures over the agriculturally dominated US Midwest.

Satellite measurements of chlorophyll are used to infer phytoplankton biomass changes and the relationship to sea surface temperature. This study shows that chlorophyll changes can be light-driven so the temperature–biomass relationship may not hold in the future.