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How climate change science is conducted, communicated and translated into policy must be radically transformed if 'dangerous' climate change is to be averted.
Climate change mitigation commitments and basic carbon-cycle science both require reliable information on carbon dioxide emissions. Uncertainties in energy data and carbon dioxide emissions estimates are particularly important when they involve large emitters.
There has been much debate on how tropical Pacific sea surface temperature will change under global warming. Now research sheds light on this debate by removing the El Niño/Southern Oscillation signal to provide a clearer story.
The complexity and politicization of climate computer models can hinder communication of their science, uses and limitations. Evidence suggests that information on climate models in US newspapers is declining and that when it appears, it is often within sceptic discourses. Furthermore, model projections are frequently portrayed as probably being inaccurate, and political opinion outlets provide more explanation of model results than many news sources.
Hydrological processes in the humid tropics differ from other regions in having greater energy inputs and faster rates of change. In this Review it is argued that understanding of the key hydrological interactions there remains limited, and a vision of future research designed to address these shortcomings is outlined.
Glacial melting in the Tibetan Plateau affects the water resources of millions of people. This study finds that—partly owing to changes in atmospheric circulations and precipitation patterns—the most intensive glacier shrinkage is in the Himalayan region, whereas glacial retreat in the Pamir Plateau region is less apparent.
Future greenhouse-gas emissions need to deviate from a fossil-fuel intensive scenario to avoid dangerous climate change, and this implies feedback links between climate change and societal actions. Research shows that the global growth of new renewable energy post-1990 represents an annual climate–society feedback of ∼ 0.25% per degree increase in global mean temperature.
Reliable statistics are important for both climate science and international negotiations about emission-reduction targets. However, China is often questioned in terms of its data transparency and accuracy. Now researchers have compiled the carbon dioxide emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces for the period 1997–2010, and found a 1.4 gigatonne discrepancy between national and provincial inventories in 2010.
Thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change. Here research relates lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures as a result of climate change to thermoelectric plant capacity. Summer average capacity can decrease by 6.3–19% in Europe and 4.4–16% in the United States, depending on the cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031–2060.
Agricultural expansion and deforestation contribute to approximately 17% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. The fate of cleared wood and subsequent carbon storage as wood products, however, has not been consistently estimated. Now research fills this gap and shows that 30 years after forest clearance the percentage of carbon stored in wood products and landfills ranges from about 0% to 62% globally.
Using a comprehensive data set of thermal tolerance limits, latitudinal range boundaries and latitudinal range shifts of cold-blooded animals, this study explores the likely consequences of climate change for the geographical redistribution of terrestrial and marine species at a global scale.
Accurately characterizing natural versus forced sea surface temperature variability in observations is needed to validate and verify climate models used for projections of future climate change. This study successfully resolves previous large discrepancies in estimated tropical Indo-Pacific twentieth-century trends between observationally based sea surface temperature reconstructions.
Integrated assessment modeller Elmar Kriegler worked with experts in climate change impacts, adaptation and scenario analysis to develop a shared framework for socio-economic scenarios in climate change research.