Volume 14 Issue 8, August 2024

Currently, no comprehensive scientific methodology of corporate risk quantification, in response to new disclosure regulations, has been proposed in the literature. Here we develop fundamental principles that are important for the appropriate use of climate scenario science in transition risk assessments.

Climate impacts are triggering a host of novel bio- and geoengineering interventions to save coral reefs. This Comment challenges heroic scientific assumptions and advocates for a more systemic, evidence-based approach to caring for coral reefs.

Reef-building corals are declining globally, putting important ecosystem services at risk. Here we discuss the potential risks and benefits of coral ecological replacement, in which new species are introduced to replace the functional roles of species that have declined or disappeared.

Coral reefs are at risk from ongoing climate change. We can best serve the reefs by invoking realistic scenarios, empiricism, artificial intelligence and falsification to self-correct the current scientific limits that hinder climate science predictions, communication and policies.

Governments are increasingly using industrial policy to develop low-carbon economic sectors and catalyse the energy transition. A recent study provides a framework to explain why governments adopt different types of green industrial policy, depending on industry position in the global supply chain and types of uncertainty.

Climate change threatens the role of forests as long-term carbon sinks. Tree planting programmes that incorporate assisted migration of tree species and seed sources can help to mitigate this impact.

Inadequate information in national adaptation policies limits the ability to track national adaptation progress in Africa. Enhancing coverage, consistency and robustness of these policies offers a clear path to establish effective, nationally led adaptation-tracking infrastructure.

Analysis of 393,139 forest inventory plots shows that increased biodiversity weakens the sensitivity of spring leaf-out dates to warming, possibly owing to diversity-driven changes in root depth and soil biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes, among potential mechanisms.

The growth and yield of 3,652 wheat genotypes under past and simulated future climates indicate that adaptation to a wide range of environments will decrease by 8.7% for each 1°C of warming. Thus, future breeding strategies must deliver genetically diverse elite lines that can adapt to the warmer conditions and likely more diverse weather scenarios caused by climate variance.

Both extreme weather events and long-term gradual changes drive human migration, which could aggravate the burden of infectious diseases. This Perspective examines the complex interplay between climate change, migration and infectious diseases then advocates for context-specific adaptations.

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons are important ozone-depleting substances. Here the authors show that the radiative forcing and equivalent effective chlorine from hydrochlorofluorocarbons has decreased in recent years, 5 years earlier than expected.

Regional marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed as a form of geoengineering. Here the authors show that a regional MCB aiming to reduce warming in the Western United States under today’s conditions would be less efficient under warmer conditions and would exaggerate warming in other regions.

How the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change under sustained warming beyond the year 2100 is not well known. Here the authors show that while ENSO variability will exhibit diverse changes in the short term, continued warming will lead to a consistent decrease in variability in the long term.

The Southern Ocean takes up substantial amounts of heat and carbon. Here the authors show that it has historically accounted for a much greater proportion of global ocean heat uptake—and link this to aerosols depressing uptake in northern oceans—but that future heat and carbon uptake will become more comparable.

The changing climate threatens water quality in lakes, particularly oxygen levels. Here the authors present evidence for northern lakes of rapidly reducing oxygen levels, mainly driven by longer stratification in the warm season, with implications for lake ecosystems.

The authors combine field data with models of coastal geomorphology and bird behaviour and dynamics to understand the impact of sea-level rise on shorebird populations. They show that habitat quality is already declining and that the current focus on habitat quantity loss can underestimate threats.

Assisted migration is the artificial movement of species and populations to increase forest resilience. Here the authors model how targeted assisted migration can preserve or enhance the European forest carbon sink under future climate scenarios.

The future of carbon dynamics in the northern high latitudes is uncertain yet represents an important potential feedback under climate change. This study uses a comprehensive observational dataset to show an increasing carbon sink in non-permafrost systems; in permafrost systems uptake was offset by loss.

The authors combine 393,139 forest inventory plots with satellite data to understand the impact of biodiversity on the sensitivity of spring leaf-out dates to temperature (S_T). They show that high diversity significantly weakens S_T, a relationship that Earth system models largely fail to reproduce.

Given the importance of crop breeding and adaptation for future food security, the authors investigate yield response of wheat cultivars under warming. They find low adaptation to recent warming and low phenotype stability across environments, with further reductions expected under future climates.

Tracking adaptation requires countries’ commitments as the baseline for measuring future progress. By analysing 65 African national adaptation documents, this research finds that most countries fail to provide internally consistent and operational plans, while efforts towards adequacy exist.