Volume 11 Issue 2, February 2021

For its green transition, the EU plans to fund the development of digital twins of Earth. For these twins to be more than big data atlases, they must create a qualitatively new Earth system simulation and observation capability using a methodological framework responsible for exceptional advances in numerical weather prediction.

The combination of highly resolved climatic and genomic data allows assessment of putative maladaptation of populations to climate change and can identify high-risk populations. Now, a study that accounts for migration and dispersal shows high maladaptation of a North American tree species in the northern and eastern distribution range.

Assessing future climate-related financial risk requires knowledge of how the climate will change at various spatial and temporal scales. This Perspective examines the demand for climate information from business and finance communities, and the extent to which climate models can meet these demands.

Aerosol–climate interactions are important in the Arctic, but they exhibit large spatiotemporal variability. This Perspective argues for community-driven model and observational improvement, emphasizing the need to understand natural aerosol processes and quantify how their baseline is changing.

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) will be required to meet climate targets. An economically feasible global CCUS layout can be achieved by capturing the carbon sources in 85 regions and mitigating with 59 GtCO₂ sequestration and aquifer storage and 33 GtCO₂-enhanced oil recovery.

Renewable energy relies on climate fields that will be altered by warming, and the impacts on the energy system are estimated for eight renewable energy technologies. Bioenergy sees the largest global increases but high uncertainty; other types see small global change but robust local trends.

GHG mitigation is not likely to be detectable in global mean temperature before mid-century. However, a simple climate emulator and an Earth system model ensemble suggest that strong mitigation greatly decreases the likelihood of high rates of 20-year warming over the next two decades.

Earth’s energy budget depends on the global sea surface temperature pattern, which is currently counteracting warming more strongly than expected in the future. Including this pattern effect in projections causes committed warming with present-day forcing to exceed the Paris goals, implying less leeway than anticipated.

The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are modes of Northern Hemisphere climate variability with high temporal and spatial correlation. With strong warming, climate models suggest their link breaks down due to a divergent response to the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and stratosphere.

The intertropical convergence zone is predicted to narrow under climate change with large uncertainties about its location. Analysis with CMIP6 models shows a zonally varying response, with northward shift over east Africa and the Indian Ocean and southward shift in east Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

An urban climate model emulator has been used with a multi-model archive to estimate that in a high-emissions scenario, many cities will warm by over 4 K during local summers. Near-global relative humidity decreases highlight the potential for green infrastructure and more efficient urban cooling mechanisms.

Genomics and environmental modelling are integrated to assess past and future changes in Arctic charr populations in response to changing climate. Southern population vulnerability suggests climate change may lead to northward shifts and the loss of important life-history variation.

The authors use a subset of climate-associated genetic loci to predict future climate maladaptation for balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) populations while also considering migration potential. They predict the greatest disruptions along the longitudinal edge of the species range.

Avoided deforestation is an important part of many climate mitigation strategies, yet monitoring is needed for enforcement. Subscriptions to deforestation alerts lowered the probability of deforestation in Africa by 18%, generating a value of US$149–696 million based on the social cost of carbon.