Latest Research

  • Article |

    Urban expansion and climate change interact to produce less night-time warming than their sum. Combined implementation of adaptation strategies can offset projected daytime urban warming when applied with GHG emissions reductions, but cannot offset projected nocturnal warming.

    • E. Scott Krayenhoff
    • , Mohamed Moustaoui
    • , Ashley M. Broadbent
    • , Vishesh Gupta
    •  & Matei Georgescu
  • Review Article |

    This Review synthesizes knowledge on projections of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming, discussing possible nonlinear responses, and outlining the need for more insight into future atmospheric and oceanic forcings.

    • Frank Pattyn
    • , Catherine Ritz
    • , Edward Hanna
    • , Xylar Asay-Davis
    • , Rob DeConto
    • , Gaël Durand
    • , Lionel Favier
    • , Xavier Fettweis
    • , Heiko Goelzer
    • , Nicholas R. Golledge
    • , Peter Kuipers Munneke
    • , Jan T. M. Lenaerts
    • , Sophie Nowicki
    • , Antony J. Payne
    • , Alexander Robinson
    • , Hélène Seroussi
    • , Luke D. Trusel
    •  & Michiel van den Broeke
  • Review Article |

    Using the ‘Can it? Has it? Will it?’ framework, this Review synthesizes current understanding on Eurasian snow–atmosphere coupling, outlining observational and modelling evidence for their dynamical connection and discussing possible changes in the future.

    • Gina R. Henderson
    • , Yannick Peings
    • , Jason C. Furtado
    •  & Paul J. Kushner
  • Perspective |

    This Perspective provides an overview of the snow–sea ice systems in the Arctic and Antarctic, offering insight on how current uncertainties can be reduced, and future challenges met, to improve understanding of polar climate change.

    • Melinda Webster
    • , Sebastian Gerland
    • , Marika Holland
    • , Elizabeth Hunke
    • , Ron Kwok
    • , Olivier Lecomte
    • , Robert Massom
    • , Don Perovich
    •  & Matthew Sturm
  • Review Article |

    Snow albedo is impacted by the presence of light-absorbing particles, including black carbon and dust. This Review collates knowledge on the associated radiative forcing, discussing geographic variability, future impacts and challenges for reducing uncertainty.

    • S. McKenzie Skiles
    • , Mark Flanner
    • , Joseph M. Cook
    • , Marie Dumont
    •  & Thomas H. Painter
  • Letter |

    Climate and land-cover change can affect the summer and winter ranges and migration distances of migratory birds. Accounting for all of these factors, rather than just summer range as is typical, significantly increases the number of species under threat.

    • Damaris Zurell
    • , Catherine H. Graham
    • , Laure Gallien
    • , Wilfried Thuiller
    •  & Niklaus E. Zimmermann
  • Letter |

    Arctic biodiversity patterns will be highly dependent on the evolution of snow conditions, according to simulation results that integrate observations of vascular plants, mosses and lichens over a range of Arctic landscapes.

    • Pekka Niittynen
    • , Risto K. Heikkinen
    •  & Miska Luoto
  • Letter |

    Projected sea-level rise and increased flooding threaten coastal agriculture. Gradual increases in soil salinity, but not inundation alone, are shown to correspond to increasing diversification into aquaculture and higher levels of internal migration.

    • J. Chen
    •  & V. Mueller
  • Review Article |

    Climate change, in combination with existing environmental issues, threatens the Mediterranean region. This Review highlights how climate change will interact with other factors to exacerbate five areas of risk unless there is mitigation and adaptation.

    • Wolfgang Cramer
    • , Joël Guiot
    • , Marianela Fader
    • , Joaquim Garrabou
    • , Jean-Pierre Gattuso
    • , Ana Iglesias
    • , Manfred A. Lange
    • , Piero Lionello
    • , Maria Carmen Llasat
    • , Shlomit Paz
    • , Josep Peñuelas
    • , Maria Snoussi
    • , Andrea Toreti
    • , Michael N. Tsimplis
    •  & Elena Xoplaki
  • Letter |

    The impact of coral bleaching and mortality is found to reduce aggression in resident butterflyfish. This is linked to the lower dietary percentage of preferred food, nutritionally rich Acropora coral, with a less nutritious diet influencing aggressive behaviour.

    • Sally A. Keith
    • , Andrew H. Baird
    • , Jean-Paul A. Hobbs
    • , Erika S. Woolsey
    • , Andrew S. Hoey
    • , N. Fadli
    •  & Nathan J. Sanders
  • Article |

    A combination of consumption-based emissions modelling and deliberative public workshops suggests that developing resource-efficient products will be an effective climate change mitigation strategy because it has both high emissions-reduction potential and wide-scale public approval.

    • Catherine Cherry
    • , Kate Scott
    • , John Barrett
    •  & Nick Pidgeon
  • Perspective |

    Meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals requires increasingly ambitious climate policy. A framework for ratcheting up stringency through policy sequencing is proposed and illustrated using the cases of Germany and California, USA.

    • Michael Pahle
    • , Dallas Burtraw
    • , Christian Flachsland
    • , Nina Kelsey
    • , Eric Biber
    • , Jonas Meckling
    • , Ottmar Edenhofer
    •  & John Zysman
  • Article |

    Global estimates of the economic impacts of CO2 emissions may obscure regional heterogeneities. A modular framework for estimating the country-level social cost of carbon shows consistently unequal country-level costs.

    • Katharine Ricke
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Ken Caldeira
    •  & Massimo Tavoni
  • Letter |

    Vegetation in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, is changing rapidly in response to a drying climate. Mosses provide potentially important indicators of coastal climate change in the region.

    • Sharon A. Robinson
    • , Diana H. King
    • , Jessica Bramley-Alves
    • , Melinda J. Waterman
    • , Michael B. Ashcroft
    • , Jane Wasley
    • , Johanna D. Turnbull
    • , Rebecca E. Miller
    • , Ellen Ryan-Colton
    • , Taylor Benny
    • , Kathryn Mullany
    • , Laurence J. Clarke
    • , Linda A. Barry
    •  & Quan Hua
  • Article |

    The model–inventory discrepancy in net land-use carbon emissions mainly results from conceptual differences in estimating anthropogenic forest sinks. A revised disaggregation of global land model results allows greater comparability with inventories.

    • Giacomo Grassi
    • , Jo House
    • , Werner A. Kurz
    • , Alessandro Cescatti
    • , Richard A. Houghton
    • , Glen P. Peters
    • , Maria J. Sanz
    • , Raul Abad Viñas
    • , Ramdane Alkama
    • , Almut Arneth
    • , Alberte Bondeau
    • , Frank Dentener
    • , Marianela Fader
    • , Sandro Federici
    • , Pierre Friedlingstein
    • , Atul K. Jain
    • , Etsushi Kato
    • , Charles D. Koven
    • , Donna Lee
    • , Julia E. M. S. Nabel
    • , Alexander A. Nassikas
    • , Lucia Perugini
    • , Simone Rossi
    • , Stephen Sitch
    • , Nicolas Viovy
    • , Andy Wiltshire
    •  & Sönke Zaehle
  • Letter |

    Deep reefs and their inhabitants are diverse, but environmental change, in particular warming, will cause these reefs found along southeastern Australia to tropicalize with different responses across functional groups, resulting in novel communities by the 2060s.

    • Martin Pierre Marzloff
    • , Eric C. J. Oliver
    • , Neville S. Barrett
    • , Neil J. Holbrook
    • , Lainey James
    • , Simon J. Wotherspoon
    •  & Craig R. Johnson
  • Letter |

    Soil microbial activity is accelerated by warming and does not acclimate over periods of at least 50 years. Resulting soil carbon loss is nevertheless temporary because substrate depletion reduces microbial biomass and constrains the influence of microbes over the ecosystem.

    • Tom W. N. Walker
    • , Christina Kaiser
    • , Florian Strasser
    • , Craig W. Herbold
    • , Niki I. W. Leblans
    • , Dagmar Woebken
    • , Ivan A. Janssens
    • , Bjarni D. Sigurdsson
    •  & Andreas Richter
  • Article |

    The connections between global mean temperature and precipitation responses to CO2 doubling (equilibrium climate and hydrological sensitivity) are driven through low-cloud responses to surface warming, according to MIROC5 perturbation experiments.

    • Masahiro Watanabe
    • , Youichi Kamae
    • , Hideo Shiogama
    • , Anthony M. DeAngelis
    •  & Kentaroh Suzuki
  • Letter |

    Global ocean oxygen concentrations have been declining, with rates varying regionally. The retreat of the Labrador Current, allowing more low-oxygen subtropical waters to the coastal and shelf waters, drives the rapid decline observed in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.

    • Mariona Claret
    • , Eric D. Galbraith
    • , Jaime B. Palter
    • , Daniele Bianchi
    • , Katja Fennel
    • , Denis Gilbert
    •  & John P. Dunne
  • Article |

    Analysis of peatland carbon accumulation over the last millennium and its association with global-scale climate space indicates an ongoing carbon sink into the future, but with decreasing strength as conditions warm.

    • Angela V. Gallego-Sala
    • , Dan J. Charman
    • , Simon Brewer
    • , Susan E. Page
    • , I. Colin Prentice
    • , Pierre Friedlingstein
    • , Steve Moreton
    • , Matthew J. Amesbury
    • , David W. Beilman
    • , Svante Björck
    • , Tatiana Blyakharchuk
    • , Christopher Bochicchio
    • , Robert K. Booth
    • , Joan Bunbury
    • , Philip Camill
    • , Donna Carless
    • , Rodney A. Chimner
    • , Michael Clifford
    • , Elizabeth Cressey
    • , Colin Courtney-Mustaphi
    • , François De Vleeschouwer
    • , Rixt de Jong
    • , Barbara Fialkiewicz-Koziel
    • , Sarah A. Finkelstein
    • , Michelle Garneau
    • , Esther Githumbi
    • , John Hribjlan
    • , James Holmquist
    • , Paul D. M. Hughes
    • , Chris Jones
    • , Miriam C. Jones
    • , Edgar Karofeld
    • , Eric S. Klein
    • , Ulla Kokfelt
    • , Atte Korhola
    • , Terri Lacourse
    • , Gael Le Roux
    • , Mariusz Lamentowicz
    • , David Large
    • , Martin Lavoie
    • , Julie Loisel
    • , Helen Mackay
    • , Glen M. MacDonald
    • , Markku Makila
    • , Gabriel Magnan
    • , Robert Marchant
    • , Katarzyna Marcisz
    • , Antonio Martínez Cortizas
    • , Charly Massa
    • , Paul Mathijssen
    • , Dmitri Mauquoy
    • , Timothy Mighall
    • , Fraser J. G. Mitchell
    • , Patrick Moss
    • , Jonathan Nichols
    • , Pirita O. Oksanen
    • , Lisa Orme
    • , Maara S. Packalen
    • , Stephen Robinson
    • , Thomas P. Roland
    • , Nicole K. Sanderson
    • , A. Britta K. Sannel
    • , Noemí Silva-Sánchez
    • , Natascha Steinberg
    • , Graeme T. Swindles
    • , T. Edward Turner
    • , Joanna Uglow
    • , Minna Väliranta
    • , Simon van Bellen
    • , Marjolein van der Linden
    • , Bas van Geel
    • , Guoping Wang
    • , Zicheng Yu
    • , Joana Zaragoza-Castells
    •  & Yan Zhao
  • Article |

    In economic games, players shift to riskier contributions when targets that prevent catastrophic losses cannot be met otherwise, suggesting people are willing to invest in riskier technology when more certain options will not be sufficient to mitigate climate change.

    • Talbot M. Andrews
    • , Andrew W. Delton
    •  & Reuben Kline
  • Review Article |

    Research suggests the tropics have widened in recent decades. This Review assesses the rates and drivers of observed and projected tropical expansion, surmising that it is too early to detect anthropogenic signals from natural variability.

    • Paul W. Staten
    • , Jian Lu
    • , Kevin M. Grise
    • , Sean M. Davis
    •  & Thomas Birner
  • Article |

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 (550 ppm) could cause an additional 175 million people to be zinc deficient and 122 million protein deficient (assuming 2050 population and CO2 projections) due to the reduced nutritional value of staple food crops.

    • Matthew R. Smith
    •  & Samuel S. Myers
  • Letter |

    River floods have severe socio-economic impacts. A multi-model framework reveals river-flood-related human losses may rise by up to 83%, 134% and 265% at 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming, respectively, with economic losses also projected to rise.

    • Francesco Dottori
    • , Wojciech Szewczyk
    • , Juan-Carlos Ciscar
    • , Fang Zhao
    • , Lorenzo Alfieri
    • , Yukiko Hirabayashi
    • , Alessandra Bianchi
    • , Ignazio Mongelli
    • , Katja Frieler
    • , Richard A. Betts
    •  & Luc Feyen
  • Article |

    Climate issues are increasingly being presented before the courts, with both pro- and anti-regulation litigants aiming to affect policy outcomes. Analysis of domestic US climate lawsuits and interview data reveals the type of case and the strategies that succeed.

    • Sabrina McCormick
    • , Robert L. Glicksman
    • , Samuel J. Simmens
    • , LeRoy Paddock
    • , Daniel Kim
    •  & Brittany Whited
  • Letter |

    California’s 2012–2015 drought is shown to have altered community structure (plants, arthropods, birds, reptiles and mammals), indirectly promoting the long-term persistence of rare species by stressing dominant ones.

    • Laura R. Prugh
    • , Nicolas Deguines
    • , Joshua B. Grinath
    • , Katherine N. Suding
    • , William T. Bean
    • , Robert Stafford
    •  & Justin S. Brashares
  • Letter |

    Experimental warming at a tall-grass prairie significantly altered bacteria and fungi community structure. Under climate change microbial community composition and structure are projected to be less variable due to warming-driven selection.

    • Xue Guo
    • , Jiajie Feng
    • , Zhou Shi
    • , Xishu Zhou
    • , Mengting Yuan
    • , Xuanyu Tao
    • , Lauren Hale
    • , Tong Yuan
    • , Jianjun Wang
    • , Yujia Qin
    • , Aifen Zhou
    • , Ying Fu
    • , Liyou Wu
    • , Zhili He
    • , Joy D. Van Nostrand
    • , Daliang Ning
    • , Xueduan Liu
    • , Yiqi Luo
    • , James M. Tiedje
    • , Yunfeng Yang
    •  & Jizhong Zhou
  • Letter |

    Climate change is the main driver for future coastal flood risk in Europe. However, in the absence of increased flood protection, damages may rise by two to three orders of magnitude by the end of the century.

    • Michalis I. Vousdoukas
    • , Lorenzo Mentaschi
    • , Evangelos Voukouvalas
    • , Alessandra Bianchi
    • , Francesco Dottori
    •  & Luc Feyen
  • Letter |

    In the early twentieth century, the Arctic warmed faster than the global average. Pacific Ocean interdecadal variability, specifically wind-driven sea surface temperatures, drove the Arctic warming through enhanced heat transport.

    • Lea Svendsen
    • , Noel Keenlyside
    • , Ingo Bethke
    • , Yongqi Gao
    •  & Nour-Eddine Omrani
  • Letter |

    In recent years, El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies have weakened and shifted westward. Observational and model analyses reveal these changes can be related to a multidecadal strengthening of cross-equatorial winds, forced both locally and from the tropical Atlantic.

    • Shineng Hu
    •  & Alexey V. Fedorov
  • Letter |

    Rain-on-snow events pose a significant flood risk. High-resolution model simulations reveal that such events will increase in frequency in the higher elevations of western North America, resulting in a 20–200% enhancement of flood risk.

    • Keith N. Musselman
    • , Flavio Lehner
    • , Kyoko Ikeda
    • , Martyn P. Clark
    • , Andreas F. Prein
    • , Changhai Liu
    • , Mike Barlage
    •  & Roy Rasmussen
  • Perspective |

    Ambitious carbon pricing reform is needed to meet climate targets. This Perspective argues that effective revenue recycling schemes should prioritize behavioural considerations that are aimed at achieving greater political acceptance.

    • David Klenert
    • , Linus Mattauch
    • , Emmanuel Combet
    • , Ottmar Edenhofer
    • , Cameron Hepburn
    • , Ryan Rafaty
    •  & Nicholas Stern
  • Letter |

    Theory predicts that hourly rainfall extremes may increase with anthropogenic warming. Observations from Australia suggest changes two to three times above the Clausius–Clapeyron rate, above that expected from natural variability.

    • Selma B. Guerreiro
    • , Hayley J. Fowler
    • , Renaud Barbero
    • , Seth Westra
    • , Geert Lenderink
    • , Stephen Blenkinsop
    • , Elizabeth Lewis
    •  & Xiao-Feng Li
  • Letter |

    Economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may negatively affect food security. Stringent mitigation policies, modelled as carbon prices, are shown to lead to an increase in production costs, food prices and the population’s risk of hunger.

    • Tomoko Hasegawa
    • , Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Hugo Valin
    • , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Thomas Fellmann
    • , Page Kyle
    • , Jason F. L. Koopman
    • , Hermann Lotze-Campen
    • , Daniel Mason-D’Croz
    • , Yuki Ochi
    • , Ignacio Pérez Domínguez
    • , Elke Stehfest
    • , Timothy B. Sulser
    • , Andrzej Tabeau
    • , Kiyoshi Takahashi
    • , Jun’ya Takakura
    • , Hans van Meijl
    • , Willem-Jan van Zeist
    • , Keith Wiebe
    •  & Peter Witzke
  • Letter |

    Individual and metapopulation models together project that—under an unabated climate change scenario—warming could reduce breeding productivity of a currently abundant songbird enough to pose a risk of quasi-extinction this century.

    • Thomas W. Bonnot
    • , W. Andrew Cox
    • , Frank R. Thompson
    •  & Joshua J. Millspaugh
  • Article |

    A 1 °C increase in monthly average temperature is associated with higher suicide rates in the United States and Mexico. Combined with comparable analysis of depressive language in US Twitter updates, these results suggest a link between higher temperatures and mental well-being.

    • Marshall Burke
    • , Felipe González
    • , Patrick Baylis
    • , Sam Heft-Neal
    • , Ceren Baysan
    • , Sanjay Basu
    •  & Solomon Hsiang
  • Perspective |

    Ocean acidification, a result of increased levels of CO2, impacts the marine environment and its biology. This Perspective presents the current understanding of the issue and highlights future directions for research.

    • Catriona L. Hurd
    • , Andrew Lenton
    • , Bronte Tilbrook
    •  & Philip W. Boyd
  • Article |

    Marine fishes exposed to elevated CO2 levels can have altered responses to sensory cues. Research now reveals a physiological and molecular mechanism in the olfactory system that helps to explain this altered behaviour under elevated CO2.

    • Cosima S. Porteus
    • , Peter C. Hubbard
    • , Tamsyn M. Uren Webster
    • , Ronny van Aerle
    • , Adelino V. M. Canário
    • , Eduarda M. Santos
    •  & Rod W. Wilson
  • Letter |

    Topographic variations result in microclimatic heterogeneity that can substantially reduce extinction risk from climate change, according to a study of 430 climate-threatened and range-declining species in England.

    • Andrew J. Suggitt
    • , Robert J. Wilson
    • , Nick J. B. Isaac
    • , Colin M. Beale
    • , Alistair G. Auffret
    • , Tom August
    • , Jonathan J. Bennie
    • , Humphrey Q. P. Crick
    • , Simon Duffield
    • , Richard Fox
    • , John J. Hopkins
    • , Nicholas A. Macgregor
    • , Mike D. Morecroft
    • , Kevin J. Walker
    •  & Ilya M. D. Maclean