Latest Research

  • Article |

    Behavioural interventions aimed at curbing carbon emissions are inexpensive and easy to implement but can offer the false promise of a quick fix. Across six experiments, the authors show that exposure to a green energy nudge diminishes support for carbon taxes.

    • David Hagmann
    • , Emily H Ho
    •  & George Loewenstein
  • Letter |

    Public concern about climate change is difficult to motivate. This study finds an increase in climate change concern among parents after their middle school-aged children participated in a climate change school curriculum.

    • Danielle F. Lawson
    • , Kathryn T. Stevenson
    • , M. Nils Peterson
    • , Sarah J. Carrier
    • , Renee L. Strnad
    •  & Erin Seekamp
  • Letter |

    The frequency of extreme weather events is increasing due to climate change. Here, the authors exploit regional variation in the UK summer heatwave of 2018 and find that exposure to extreme temperatures influenced concern about energy security.

    • Shaun Larcom
    • , Po-Wen She
    •  & Terry van Gevelt
  • Article |

    The benefits of using natural gas as a bridge fuel are often called into question. A coal-to-gas shift in China, Germany, India and the United States is broadly consistent with climate stabilization goals in the Paris Agreement, except when metrics emphasizing very short-term outcomes are used.

    • Katsumasa Tanaka
    • , Otávio Cavalett
    • , William J. Collins
    •  & Francesco Cherubini
  • Letter |

    Fifty years of monthly observation of rainforest canopy trees in the Central Amazon reveals that drought, heat, storms and extreme rain can all increase tree mortality. Pioneers, softwoods and evergreen functional groups were particularly vulnerable.

    • Izabela Aleixo
    • , Darren Norris
    • , Lia Hemerik
    • , Antenor Barbosa
    • , Eduardo Prata
    • , Flávia Costa
    •  & Lourens Poorter
  • Review Article |

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, launched in 2002, allows monitoring of changes in hydrology and the cryosphere with terrestrial and ocean applications. This Review Article focuses on its contribution to the detection and quantification of climate change signals.

    • Byron D. Tapley
    • , Michael M. Watkins
    • , Frank Flechtner
    • , Christoph Reigber
    • , Srinivas Bettadpur
    • , Matthew Rodell
    • , Ingo Sasgen
    • , James S. Famiglietti
    • , Felix W. Landerer
    • , Don P. Chambers
    • , John T. Reager
    • , Alex S. Gardner
    • , Himanshu Save
    • , Erik R. Ivins
    • , Sean C. Swenson
    • , Carmen Boening
    • , Christoph Dahle
    • , David N. Wiese
    • , Henryk Dobslaw
    • , Mark E. Tamisiea
    •  & Isabella Velicogna
  • Article |

    Spaceborne thermal observation is used to monitor discrete phenophases of forest understory plants in near-real time and the thermal relationship is used to project phenological changes under future climates.

    • David N. Laskin
    • , Gregory J. McDermid
    • , Scott E. Nielsen
    • , Shawn J. Marshall
    • , David R. Roberts
    •  & Alessandro Montaghi
  • Letter |

    The life-cycle GHG emissions from plastics are expected to increase. Here, it is shown that an aggressive strategy of decarbonizing energy infrastructure, improving recycling, adopting bio-based plastics and reducing demand is required to keep emissions below 2015 levels.

    • Jiajia Zheng
    •  & Sangwon Suh
  • Article |

    The Pacific Walker circulation is predicted to weaken, however, observations suggest a current strengthening. Satellite humidity observations show a weaker response than reanalyses; coupled with model simulations, this suggests that internal variability dominates recent strengthening.

    • Eui-Seok Chung
    • , Axel Timmermann
    • , Brian J. Soden
    • , Kyung-Ja Ha
    • , Lei Shi
    •  & Viju O. John
  • Perspective |

    The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project develops a framework to design low-emission development pathways. This Perspective discusses the framework and how it can support the development of national strategies to meet climate targets, as well as help achieve stakeholder engagement.

    • Henri Waisman
    • , Chris Bataille
    • , Harald Winkler
    • , Frank Jotzo
    • , Priyadarshi Shukla
    • , Michel Colombier
    • , Daniel Buira
    • , Patrick Criqui
    • , Manfred Fischedick
    • , Mikiko Kainuma
    • , Emilio La Rovere
    • , Steve Pye
    • , George Safonov
    • , Ucok Siagian
    • , Fei Teng
    • , Maria-Rosa Virdis
    • , Jim Williams
    • , Soogil Young
    • , Gabrial Anandarajah
    • , Rizaldi Boer
    • , Yongsun Cho
    • , Amandine Denis-Ryan
    • , Subash Dhar
    • , Maria Gaeta
    • , Claudio Gesteira
    • , Ben Haley
    • , Jean-Charles Hourcade
    • , Qiang Liu
    • , Oleg Lugovoy
    • , Toshihiko Masui
    • , Sandrine Mathy
    • , Ken Oshiro
    • , Ramiro Parrado
    • , Minal Pathak
    • , Vladimir Potashnikov
    • , Sascha Samadi
    • , David Sawyer
    • , Thomas Spencer
    • , Jordi Tovilla
    •  & Hilton Trollip
  • Review Article |

    Cities around the world are at the forefront of enacting climate mitigation policies, but effective action requires a better understanding of potential solutions. This Review offers a systematic exploration of the urban case study literature and discusses ways to best make use of the growing body of cases.

    • William F. Lamb
    • , Felix Creutzig
    • , Max W. Callaghan
    •  & Jan C. Minx
  • Letter |

    Melting glaciers are increasing Himalayan glacial lakes and potentially the risk of outburst floods. An advanced automated algorithm identifies glacial lake outburst floods from Landsat images since the late 1980s to improve understanding of these events and trends in their frequency.

    • Georg Veh
    • , Oliver Korup
    • , Sebastian von Specht
    • , Sigrid Roessner
    •  & Ariane Walz
  • Article |

    Climate change has the potential to profoundly affect Arctic transportation systems. Here, Indigenous knowledge and climate data are integrated to model changing trail access for Canada’s Inuit communities over the past 30 years

    • J. D. Ford
    • , D. Clark
    • , T. Pearce
    • , L. Berrang-Ford
    • , L. Copland
    • , J. Dawson
    • , M. New
    •  & S. L Harper
  • Article |

    Decision-making structures in forest-user communities often exclude women. This lab-in-field experiment shows that groups in which at least 50% of members were women conserved more trees, and distributed benefits more equally, in a payment for ecosystem services intervention.

    • Nathan J. Cook
    • , Tara Grillos
    •  & Krister P. Andersson
  • Perspective |

    Emergent constraints can be an evaluation tool for Earth System Models. This Perspective discusses emergent constraints, how they should be assessed, and when these statistical relationships can be confirmed and used to improve understanding of the changing climate system.

    • Alex Hall
    • , Peter Cox
    • , Chris Huntingford
    •  & Stephen Klein
  • Letter |

    High-resolution coupled climate model simulations suggest only 0.4% of the land surface will see exacerbated hydrological risks under solar geoengineering that halves warming, indicating that geoengineering-related risks may be overstated.

    • Peter Irvine
    • , Kerry Emanuel
    • , Jie He
    • , Larry W. Horowitz
    • , Gabriel Vecchi
    •  & David Keith
  • Letter |

    The aragonite saturation horizon depth is an indicator of ocean acidification. Model projections show that a new shallow horizon emerges in the Southern Ocean before 2100, reducing suitable habitat for calcifying species in the near future.

    • Gabriela Negrete-García
    • , Nicole S. Lovenduski
    • , Claudine Hauri
    • , Kristen M. Krumhardt
    •  & Siv K. Lauvset
  • Letter |

    Uncertainties are often cited as a reason for mitigation inaction. Here, millions of scenarios are evaluated to assess the relative importance of human–earth system uncertainties and policy variables. The growth rate of global abatement is found to be the primary driver of long-term warming.

    • J. R. Lamontagne
    • , P. M. Reed
    • , G. Marangoni
    • , K. Keller
    •  & G. G. Garner
  • Letter |

    Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency, but they vary in their manifestation. All events impact ecosystem structure and functioning, with increased risk of negative impacts linked to greater biodiversity, number of species near their thermal limit and additional human impacts.

    • Dan A. Smale
    • , Thomas Wernberg
    • , Eric C. J. Oliver
    • , Mads Thomsen
    • , Ben P. Harvey
    • , Sandra C. Straub
    • , Michael T. Burrows
    • , Lisa V. Alexander
    • , Jessica A. Benthuysen
    • , Markus G. Donat
    • , Ming Feng
    • , Alistair J. Hobday
    • , Neil J. Holbrook
    • , Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick
    • , Hillary A. Scannell
    • , Alex Sen Gupta
    • , Ben L. Payne
    •  & Pippa J. Moore
  • Letter |

    China dominates the global growth in aquaculture food production, primarily through massive conversion of paddy fields to crab ponds. This land conversion is greatly increasing methane emissions but these can be significantly reduced by water aeration.

    • Junji Yuan
    • , Jian Xiang
    • , Deyan Liu
    • , Hojeong Kang
    • , Tiehu He
    • , Sunghyun Kim
    • , Yongxin Lin
    • , Chris Freeman
    •  & Weixin Ding
  • Article |

    Climate change mitigation requires cooperation among nations, which could be undermined if a major emitter defects from international agreements. This study shows that public support for global climate policies is unaffected by information on other countries failing to reduce their emissions.

    • Liam F. Beiser-McGrath
    •  & Thomas Bernauer
  • Letter |

    Aviation’s contribution to global emissions is increasing and requires action. This paper shows that the International Civil Aviation Organization plan to offset increasing emissions will not be realized unless robust criteria for the eligibility of offset credits are adopted.

    • Carsten Warnecke
    • , Lambert Schneider
    • , Thomas Day
    • , Stephanie La Hoz Theuer
    •  & Harry Fearnehough
  • Letter |

    Between 2005 and 2015, several developed economies experienced decreases in CO2 emissions. In this study, emissions in 18 countries are broken down and the potential effects of energy and climate policies on emission declines are explored.

    • Corinne Le Quéré
    • , Jan Ivar Korsbakken
    • , Charlie Wilson
    • , Jale Tosun
    • , Robbie Andrew
    • , Robert J. Andres
    • , Josep G. Canadell
    • , Andrew Jordan
    • , Glen P. Peters
    •  & Detlef P. van Vuuren
  • Letter |

    Abrupt community shifts, for marine species from zooplankton to fish, are shown to occur with local climate changes in which warming pushes species beyond their thermal niche. This modelling approach suggests future events will be larger and have more broad-reaching impacts.

    • G. Beaugrand
    • , A. Conversi
    • , A. Atkinson
    • , J. Cloern
    • , S. Chiba
    • , S. Fonda-Umani
    • , R. R. Kirby
    • , C. H. Greene
    • , E. Goberville
    • , S. A. Otto
    • , P. C. Reid
    • , L. Stemmann
    •  & M. Edwards
  • Perspective |

    Big data is increasingly popular in many research domains. This Perspective discusses where elements of big data approaches have been employed in climate research and where combining big data with theory-driven research can be most fruitful.

    • Benedikt Knüsel
    • , Marius Zumwald
    • , Christoph Baumberger
    • , Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn
    • , Erich M. Fischer
    • , David N. Bresch
    •  & Reto Knutti
  • Letter |

    Crop models suggest that early sowing and slower-developing cultivars could maintain Australian wheat yields despite less-favourable climatic conditions. Field trials now confirm the potential of this adaptation for wheat production across Australia.

    • James R. Hunt
    • , Julianne M. Lilley
    • , Ben Trevaskis
    • , Bonnie M. Flohr
    • , Allan Peake
    • , Andrew Fletcher
    • , Alexander B. Zwart
    • , David Gobbett
    •  & John A. Kirkegaard
  • Perspective |

    The Paris Agreement requires substantial changes in the land system. However, national implementation plans are vague, largely insufficient and unlikely to be fully achieved. Realistic policies require proper consideration of land-system lags.

    • Calum Brown
    • , Peter Alexander
    • , Almut Arneth
    • , Ian Holman
    •  & Mark Rounsevell
  • Letter |

    Warming is altering subtropical precipitation; however, it is not clear whether this will continue in an equilibrium climate. Using projections to 2300, Southern Hemisphere drying is shown to be a transient response to the meridional temperature gradient changes.

    • J. M. Kale Sniderman
    • , Josephine R. Brown
    • , Jon D. Woodhead
    • , Andrew D. King
    • , Nathan P. Gillett
    • , Katarzyna B. Tokarska
    • , Katja Lorbacher
    • , John Hellstrom
    • , Russell N. Drysdale
    •  & Malte Meinshausen
  • Letter |

    Greater land–sea temperature contrast under anthropogenic warming will enhance aerosol concentrations, reveal model simulations, linked to reductions in large-scale cloud cover and corresponding decreases in precipitation and aerosol wet removal.

    • Robert J. Allen
    • , Taufiq Hassan
    • , Cynthia A. Randles
    •  & Hui Su
  • Article |

    Accurate emissions data are required to monitor progress towards climate goals. Firms’ self-reported emissions show convergence with independently verified emissions in two pilot emissions trading systems in China over several years, suggesting the effectiveness of oversight and third-party audits.

    • Da Zhang
    • , Qin Zhang
    • , Shaozhou Qi
    • , Jinpeng Huang
    • , Valerie J. Karplus
    •  & Xiliang Zhang
  • Letter |

    Up to 35,000 lakes in the Northern Hemisphere may be at risk of intermittent winter ice cover at 2 °C warming, reveals an observation-based study. This would affect 394 million people reliant on lake ice for ecosystem services.

    • Sapna Sharma
    • , Kevin Blagrave
    • , John J. Magnuson
    • , Catherine M. O’Reilly
    • , Samantha Oliver
    • , Ryan D. Batt
    • , Madeline R. Magee
    • , Dietmar Straile
    • , Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer
    • , Luke Winslow
    •  & R. Iestyn Woolway