Latest Research

  • Perspective |

    Some of the predicted impacts of climate change on crops may be avoided by exploiting existing crop diversity. This Perspective examines this possibility for wine grapes where about 1% of diversity accounts for more than 80% of cultivated areas in some countries.

    • E. M. Wolkovich
    • , I. García de Cortázar-Atauri
    • , I. Morales-Castilla
    • , K. A. Nicholas
    •  & T. Lacombe
  • Letter |

    Apparent temperature, the perceived temperature from air temperature, humidity and wind combined, is projected to increase faster than air temperature. Thermal discomfort will see greater increases in summertime, outweighing wintertime decreases.

    • Jianfeng Li
    • , Yongqin David Chen
    • , Thian Yew Gan
    •  & Ngar-Cheung Lau
  • Article |

    Human behaviour is an important driver of emissions. A system-dynamics model that couples a psychological model of behaviour with a model of emissions and climate change shows that behaviour can influence global temperature in the year 2100 by up to 1.5 °C.

    • Brian Beckage
    • , Louis J. Gross
    • , Katherine Lacasse
    • , Eric Carr
    • , Sara S. Metcalf
    • , Jonathan M. Winter
    • , Peter D. Howe
    • , Nina Fefferman
    • , Travis Franck
    • , Asim Zia
    • , Ann Kinzig
    •  & Forrest M. Hoffman
  • Letter |

    Arid regions are projected to expand in the future. An ensemble of climate model simulations reveals that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C can markedly reduce the area undergoing, and thus the population exposed to, aridification.

    • Chang-Eui Park
    • , Su-Jong Jeong
    • , Manoj Joshi
    • , Timothy J. Osborn
    • , Chang-Hoi Ho
    • , Shilong Piao
    • , Deliang Chen
    • , Junguo Liu
    • , Hong Yang
    • , Hoonyoung Park
    • , Baek-Min Kim
    •  & Song Feng
  • Perspective |

    Effective integration of climate knowledge into policy requires trust between climate science producers and users. This Perspective identifies risks associated with the dynamics of trust at the climate science–policy interface and how they may be overcome.

    • Justine Lacey
    • , Mark Howden
    • , Christopher Cvitanovic
    •  & R. M. Colvin
  • Letter |

    Combining historical aerial surveys, expedition photographs, and both spy and modern satellite imagery reveals a pronounced retreat of peripheral glaciers in east and west Greenland, linked to changes in precipitation associated with the NAO.

    • A. A. Bjørk
    • , S. Aagaard
    • , A. Lütt
    • , S. A. Khan
    • , J. E. Box
    • , K. K. Kjeldsen
    • , N. K. Larsen
    • , N. J. Korsgaard
    • , J. Cappelen
    • , W. T. Colgan
    • , H. Machguth
    • , C. S. Andresen
    • , Y. Peings
    •  & K. H. Kjær
  • Letter |

    Climate change is predicted to increase soil carbon losses. However, manipulation experiments suggest detritivore feeding activity — a key driver of organic matter decomposition — will decline with warming and drying, reducing positive soil feedbacks.

    • Madhav P. Thakur
    • , Peter B. Reich
    • , Sarah E. Hobbie
    • , Artur Stefanski
    • , Roy Rich
    • , Karen E. Rice
    • , William C. Eddy
    •  & Nico Eisenhauer
  • Letter |

    Ice loss from Antarctica is sensitive to changes in ice shelves. Finite-element modelling reveals that localized ice-shelf thinning, particularly in locations vulnerable to warm water intrusion, can have far-reaching impacts via tele-buttressing.

    • R. Reese
    • , G. H. Gudmundsson
    • , A. Levermann
    •  & R. Winkelmann
  • Letter |

    The cost of preserving ecosystem storage of carbon varies depending on local land-use and socio-political pressures. A survey of experts suggests a cost-minimizing distribution would be more effective for mitigation than equitable distribution.

    • Markku Larjavaara
    • , Markku Kanninen
    • , Harold Gordillo
    • , Joni Koskinen
    • , Markus Kukkonen
    • , Niina Käyhkö
    • , Anne M. Larson
    •  & Sven Wunder
  • Perspective |

    Climate impact models have a limited ability to represent risks to the poor and vulnerable. Wider adoption of best practices and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms are needed to address this shortcoming.

    • Narasimha D. Rao
    • , Bas J. van Ruijven
    • , Keywan Riahi
    •  & Valentina Bosetti
  • Perspective |

    Many of the measures required to reduce emissions of short-lived climate pollutants contribute to achieving the sustainable development goals while complementing decarbonization efforts required to reduce long-term climate change.

    • Andy Haines
    • , Markus Amann
    • , Nathan Borgford-Parnell
    • , Sunday Leonard
    • , Johan Kuylenstierna
    •  & Drew Shindell
  • Author Correction |

    • Trisha B. Atwood
    • , Rod M. Connolly
    • , Hanan Almahasheer
    • , Paul E. Carnell
    • , Carlos M. Duarte
    • , Carolyn J. Ewers Lewis
    • , Xabier Irigoien
    • , Jeffrey J. Kelleway
    • , Paul S. Lavery
    • , Peter I. Macreadie
    • , Oscar Serrano
    • , Christian J. Sanders
    • , Isaac Santos
    • , Andrew D. L. Steven
    •  & Catherine E. Lovelock
  • Letter |

    Reductions in precipitation and water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Niño events (1997–2016). Fires follow a predictable cascade across tropical continents that may improve seasonal fire forecasts.

    • Yang Chen
    • , Douglas C. Morton
    • , Niels Andela
    • , Guido R. van der Werf
    • , Louis Giglio
    •  & James T. Randerson
  • Letter |

    Climate and CO2 trends have driven significant changes in global crop water demand over the last 30 years but with variation by region and crop type. If trends continue, it could be a challenge for adaptation efforts to keep pace with water demand.

    • Daniel W. Urban
    • , Justin Sheffield
    •  & David B. Lobell
  • Letter |

    Changes in deep-water ventilation could potentially cause acidification from organic matter breakdown. The Sea of Japan has an acidification rate 27% higher at depth than at the surface, showing how reduced ventilation from warming could impact the deep ocean.

    • Chen-Tung Arthur Chen
    • , Hon-Kit Lui
    • , Chia-Han Hsieh
    • , Tetsuo Yanagi
    • , Naohiro Kosugi
    • , Masao Ishii
    •  & Gwo-Ching Gong
  • Letter |

    Limitations with climate models have previously prevented accurate diagnosis of future changes in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). A convection-permitting model now indicates that summer MCSs will triple by 2100 in the United States, with a corresponding increase in rainfall rates and areal extent.

    • Andreas F. Prein
    • , Changhai Liu
    • , Kyoko Ikeda
    • , Stanley B. Trier
    • , Roy M. Rasmussen
    • , Greg J. Holland
    •  & Martyn P. Clark
  • Article |

    Here emission curves are developed for advanced biofuel supply chains to enhance understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting for landscape heterogeneity.

    • Vassilis Daioglou
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Elke Stehfest
    • , Christoph Müller
    • , Birka Wicke
    • , Andre Faaij
    •  & Detlef P. van Vuuren
  • Letter |

    The Arctic is under-represented in surface temperature datasets and this could affect estimates of global warming. A new dataset with greater coverage of the Arctic shows a higher warming rate of 0.112 °C per decade compared to 0.005 °C from IPCC AR5.

    • Jianbin Huang
    • , Xiangdong Zhang
    • , Qiyi Zhang
    • , Yanluan Lin
    • , Mingju Hao
    • , Yong Luo
    • , Zongci Zhao
    • , Yao Yao
    • , Xin Chen
    • , Lei Wang
    • , Suping Nie
    • , Yizhou Yin
    • , Ying Xu
    •  & Jiansong Zhang
  • Letter |

    Achieving the longer-term goals of the Paris Agreement and transformation to a low-carbon society requires an acceleration in electricity generation investment and capacity addition above that outlined in the US Nationally Determined Contribution.

    • Gokul Iyer
    • , Catherine Ledna
    • , Leon Clarke
    • , James Edmonds
    • , Haewon McJeon
    • , Page Kyle
    •  & James H Williams
  • Letter |

    Post-monsoon season severe cyclonic storms were first observed over the Arabian Sea in 2014 and 2015. Highresolution modelling reveals their increased frequency can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing, and not natural variability.

    • Hiroyuki Murakami
    • , Gabriel A. Vecchi
    •  & Seth Underwood