Latest Research

  • Letter |

    Geographic variation in social, economic, political and climatic factors may influence public responsiveness to climate change messaging. This study shows that messages about scientific consensus have a greater influence in more conservative US states.

    • Baobao Zhang
    • , Sander van der Linden
    • , Matto Mildenberger
    • , Jennifer R. Marlon
    • , Peter D. Howe
    •  & Anthony Leiserowitz
  • Article |

    Scenarios that constrain warming to 1.5 °C currently place a large emphasis on CO2 removal. Alternative pathways involving lifestyle change, rapid electrification and reduction of non-CO2 gases could reduce the need for such negative emission technologies.

    • Detlef P. van Vuuren
    • , Elke Stehfest
    • , David E. H. J. Gernaat
    • , Maarten van den Berg
    • , David L. Bijl
    • , Harmen Sytze de Boer
    • , Vassilis Daioglou
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Oreane Y. Edelenbosch
    • , Mathijs Harmsen
    • , Andries F. Hof
    •  & Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld
  • Perspective |

    This Perspective reviews the literature on climate change and mental health, and advocates for a systems approach, which considers the complex set of interacting distal, intermediate and proximate factors that influence mental health risk, in future research.

    • Helen L. Berry
    • , Thomas D. Waite
    • , Keith B. G. Dear
    • , Anthony G. Capon
    •  & Virginia Murray
  • Perspective |

    Climate change has a gradual influence on landscapes and ecosystems that may lead to feelings of loss for those with close ties to the natural environment. This Perspective describes existing research on ecological grief and outlines directions for future inquiry.

    • Ashlee Cunsolo
    •  & Neville R. Ellis
  • Letter |

    Limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires staying within an allowable carbon budget. An analysis of warming and carbon budgets from the past decade shows that the median remaining budget is 208 PgC, corresponding to about 20 years of emissions at the 2015 rate.

    • Katarzyna B. Tokarska
    •  & Nathan P. Gillett
  • Article |

    Fisheries generated a total of 179 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent GHG emissions in 2011 (4% of global food production). Emissions grew by 28% between 1990 and 2011, primarily driven by increased harvests from fuel-intensive crustacean fisheries.

    • Robert W. R. Parker
    • , Julia L. Blanchard
    • , Caleb Gardner
    • , Bridget S. Green
    • , Klaas Hartmann
    • , Peter H. Tyedmers
    •  & Reg A. Watson
  • Article |

    Nations are currently pursuing efforts to constrain anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C. In such a world, model projections suggest the Arctic will be ice-free every one in forty years, compared to one in every five under stabilized 2 °C warming.

    • Michael Sigmond
    • , John C. Fyfe
    •  & Neil C. Swart
  • Letter |

    Time of reproduction may be altered as the climate changes. For seabirds, it is shown that there has not been an adjustment in timing as the climate changes and the sea surface warms. This lack of plasticity could result in a mismatch with food resources.

    • Katharine Keogan
    • , Francis Daunt
    • , Sarah Wanless
    • , Richard A. Phillips
    • , Craig A. Walling
    • , Philippa Agnew
    • , David G. Ainley
    • , Tycho Anker-Nilssen
    • , Grant Ballard
    • , Robert T. Barrett
    • , Kerry J. Barton
    • , Claus Bech
    • , Peter Becker
    • , Per-Arvid Berglund
    • , Loïc Bollache
    • , Alexander L. Bond
    • , Sandra Bouwhuis
    • , Russell W. Bradley
    • , Zofia M. Burr
    • , Kees Camphuysen
    • , Paulo Catry
    • , Andre Chiaradia
    • , Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard
    • , Richard Cuthbert
    • , Nina Dehnhard
    • , Sébastien Descamps
    • , Tony Diamond
    • , George Divoky
    • , Hugh Drummond
    • , Katie M. Dugger
    • , Michael J. Dunn
    • , Louise Emmerson
    • , Kjell Einar Erikstad
    • , Jérôme Fort
    • , William Fraser
    • , Meritxell Genovart
    • , Olivier Gilg
    • , Jacob González-Solís
    • , José Pedro Granadeiro
    • , David Grémillet
    • , Jannik Hansen
    • , Sveinn A. Hanssen
    • , Mike Harris
    • , April Hedd
    • , Jefferson Hinke
    • , José Manuel Igual
    • , Jaime Jahncke
    • , Ian Jones
    • , Peter J. Kappes
    • , Johannes Lang
    • , Magdalene Langset
    • , Amélie Lescroël
    • , Svein-Håkon Lorentsen
    • , Phil O’B. Lyver
    • , Mark Mallory
    • , Børge Moe
    • , William A. Montevecchi
    • , David Monticelli
    • , Carolyn Mostello
    • , Mark Newell
    • , Lisa Nicholson
    • , Ian Nisbet
    • , Olof Olsson
    • , Daniel Oro
    • , Vivian Pattison
    • , Maud Poisbleau
    • , Tanya Pyk
    • , Flavio Quintana
    • , Jaime A. Ramos
    • , Raül Ramos
    • , Tone Kirstin Reiertsen
    • , Cristina Rodríguez
    • , Peter Ryan
    • , Ana Sanz-Aguilar
    • , Niels M. Schmidt
    • , Paula Shannon
    • , Benoit Sittler
    • , Colin Southwell
    • , Christopher Surman
    • , Walter S. Svagelj
    • , Wayne Trivelpiece
    • , Pete Warzybok
    • , Yutaka Watanuki
    • , Henri Weimerskirch
    • , Peter R. Wilson
    • , Andrew G. Wood
    • , Albert B. Phillimore
    •  & Sue Lewis
  • Article |

    Marine ecosystems and their stored carbon are threatened by warming and marine heatwaves. During a 2010–2011 heatwave, around a third of a Western Australian seagrass ecosystem suffered damage, potentially releasing 2–9 Tg CO2 in the following years.

    • A. Arias-Ortiz
    • , O. Serrano
    • , P. Masqué
    • , P. S. Lavery
    • , U. Mueller
    • , G. A. Kendrick
    • , M. Rozaimi
    • , A. Esteban
    • , J. W. Fourqurean
    • , N. Marbà
    • , M. A. Mateo
    • , K. Murray
    • , M. J. Rule
    •  & C. M. Duarte
  • Letter |

    An organic carbon decomposition model, calibrated with laboratory incubations, indicates a greater production rate of CO2-C equivalents from waterlogged (compared to drained) permafrost soils, when the higher global warming potential of methane is factored in.

    • Christian Knoblauch
    • , Christian Beer
    • , Susanne Liebner
    • , Mikhail N. Grigoriev
    •  & Eva-Maria Pfeiffer
  • Letter |

    Glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica have been rapidly losing mass. Contemporary ice declines are shown to be a response to past greenhouse gas emissions, with present mitigation efforts unlikely to be beneficial in preventing future short-term ice loss.

    • Ben Marzeion
    • , Georg Kaser
    • , Fabien Maussion
    •  & Nicolas Champollion
  • Article |

    Scenarios that constrain end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m–2, and thus global mean temperature increases to below 1.5 °C, are explored. Effective scenarios reduce energy use, deploy CO2 removal measures, and shift to non-emitting energy sources.

    • Joeri Rogelj
    • , Alexander Popp
    • , Katherine V. Calvin
    • , Gunnar Luderer
    • , Johannes Emmerling
    • , David Gernaat
    • , Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Jessica Strefler
    • , Tomoko Hasegawa
    • , Giacomo Marangoni
    • , Volker Krey
    • , Elmar Kriegler
    • , Keywan Riahi
    • , Detlef P. van Vuuren
    • , Jonathan Doelman
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Jae Edmonds
    • , Oliver Fricko
    • , Mathijs Harmsen
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Florian Humpenöder
    • , Elke Stehfest
    •  & Massimo Tavoni
  • Perspective |

    Flood impact and recovery is influenced by behavioural responses. This Perspective describes how integrating human behaviour and risk perception into flood-risk assessment models may improve identification of effective risk-management strategies.

    • J. C. J. H. Aerts
    • , W. J. Botzen
    • , K. C. Clarke
    • , S. L. Cutter
    • , J. W. Hall
    • , B. Merz
    • , E. Michel-Kerjan
    • , J. Mysiak
    • , S. Surminski
    •  & H. Kunreuther
  • Article |

    Ecological niche modelling of king penguins in the Southern Ocean, validated with population genomics and palaeodemography data, is used to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia under climate change.

    • Robin Cristofari
    • , Xiaoming Liu
    • , Francesco Bonadonna
    • , Yves Cherel
    • , Pierre Pistorius
    • , Yvon Le Maho
    • , Virginie Raybaud
    • , Nils Christian Stenseth
    • , Céline Le Bohec
    •  & Emiliano Trucchi
  • Letter |

    Agricultural soils can be targeted for carbon (C) sequestration. Research considering C and nitrogen (N) dynamics confirms that significant CO2 mitigation can be achieved, but after 20–30 years N inputs also need controlling to prevent the C sequestration being offset by N2O emissions.

    • Emanuele Lugato
    • , Adrian Leip
    •  & Arwyn Jones
  • Article |

    Large-scale sea-level rise is primarily dominated by thermal expansion and ice melt. However, wave processes are found to significantly influence local sea-level trends at the coast, amplifying or reducing steric and eustatic contributions.

    • Angélique Melet
    • , Benoit Meyssignac
    • , Rafael Almar
    •  & Gonéri Le Cozannet