Latest Research

  • Letter |

    Experimental warming at a tall-grass prairie significantly altered bacteria and fungi community structure. Under climate change microbial community composition and structure are projected to be less variable due to warming-driven selection.

    • Xue Guo
    • , Jiajie Feng
    • , Zhou Shi
    • , Xishu Zhou
    • , Mengting Yuan
    • , Xuanyu Tao
    • , Lauren Hale
    • , Tong Yuan
    • , Jianjun Wang
    • , Yujia Qin
    • , Aifen Zhou
    • , Ying Fu
    • , Liyou Wu
    • , Zhili He
    • , Joy D. Van Nostrand
    • , Daliang Ning
    • , Xueduan Liu
    • , Yiqi Luo
    • , James M. Tiedje
    • , Yunfeng Yang
    •  & Jizhong Zhou
  • Letter |

    Climate change is the main driver for future coastal flood risk in Europe. However, in the absence of increased flood protection, damages may rise by two to three orders of magnitude by the end of the century.

    • Michalis I. Vousdoukas
    • , Lorenzo Mentaschi
    • , Evangelos Voukouvalas
    • , Alessandra Bianchi
    • , Francesco Dottori
    •  & Luc Feyen
  • Letter |

    In the early twentieth century, the Arctic warmed faster than the global average. Pacific Ocean interdecadal variability, specifically wind-driven sea surface temperatures, drove the Arctic warming through enhanced heat transport.

    • Lea Svendsen
    • , Noel Keenlyside
    • , Ingo Bethke
    • , Yongqi Gao
    •  & Nour-Eddine Omrani
  • Letter |

    In recent years, El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies have weakened and shifted westward. Observational and model analyses reveal these changes can be related to a multidecadal strengthening of cross-equatorial winds, forced both locally and from the tropical Atlantic.

    • Shineng Hu
    •  & Alexey V. Fedorov
  • Letter |

    Rain-on-snow events pose a significant flood risk. High-resolution model simulations reveal that such events will increase in frequency in the higher elevations of western North America, resulting in a 20–200% enhancement of flood risk.

    • Keith N. Musselman
    • , Flavio Lehner
    • , Kyoko Ikeda
    • , Martyn P. Clark
    • , Andreas F. Prein
    • , Changhai Liu
    • , Mike Barlage
    •  & Roy Rasmussen
  • Perspective |

    Ambitious carbon pricing reform is needed to meet climate targets. This Perspective argues that effective revenue recycling schemes should prioritize behavioural considerations that are aimed at achieving greater political acceptance.

    • David Klenert
    • , Linus Mattauch
    • , Emmanuel Combet
    • , Ottmar Edenhofer
    • , Cameron Hepburn
    • , Ryan Rafaty
    •  & Nicholas Stern
  • Letter |

    Theory predicts that hourly rainfall extremes may increase with anthropogenic warming. Observations from Australia suggest changes two to three times above the Clausius–Clapeyron rate, above that expected from natural variability.

    • Selma B. Guerreiro
    • , Hayley J. Fowler
    • , Renaud Barbero
    • , Seth Westra
    • , Geert Lenderink
    • , Stephen Blenkinsop
    • , Elizabeth Lewis
    •  & Xiao-Feng Li
  • Letter |

    Economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may negatively affect food security. Stringent mitigation policies, modelled as carbon prices, are shown to lead to an increase in production costs, food prices and the population’s risk of hunger.

    • Tomoko Hasegawa
    • , Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Hugo Valin
    • , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Thomas Fellmann
    • , Page Kyle
    • , Jason F. L. Koopman
    • , Hermann Lotze-Campen
    • , Daniel Mason-D’Croz
    • , Yuki Ochi
    • , Ignacio Pérez Domínguez
    • , Elke Stehfest
    • , Timothy B. Sulser
    • , Andrzej Tabeau
    • , Kiyoshi Takahashi
    • , Jun’ya Takakura
    • , Hans van Meijl
    • , Willem-Jan van Zeist
    • , Keith Wiebe
    •  & Peter Witzke
  • Letter |

    Individual and metapopulation models together project that—under an unabated climate change scenario—warming could reduce breeding productivity of a currently abundant songbird enough to pose a risk of quasi-extinction this century.

    • Thomas W. Bonnot
    • , W. Andrew Cox
    • , Frank R. Thompson
    •  & Joshua J. Millspaugh
  • Article |

    A 1 °C increase in monthly average temperature is associated with higher suicide rates in the United States and Mexico. Combined with comparable analysis of depressive language in US Twitter updates, these results suggest a link between higher temperatures and mental well-being.

    • Marshall Burke
    • , Felipe González
    • , Patrick Baylis
    • , Sam Heft-Neal
    • , Ceren Baysan
    • , Sanjay Basu
    •  & Solomon Hsiang
  • Perspective |

    Ocean acidification, a result of increased levels of CO2, impacts the marine environment and its biology. This Perspective presents the current understanding of the issue and highlights future directions for research.

    • Catriona L. Hurd
    • , Andrew Lenton
    • , Bronte Tilbrook
    •  & Philip W. Boyd
  • Article |

    Marine fishes exposed to elevated CO2 levels can have altered responses to sensory cues. Research now reveals a physiological and molecular mechanism in the olfactory system that helps to explain this altered behaviour under elevated CO2.

    • Cosima S. Porteus
    • , Peter C. Hubbard
    • , Tamsyn M. Uren Webster
    • , Ronny van Aerle
    • , Adelino V. M. Canário
    • , Eduarda M. Santos
    •  & Rod W. Wilson
  • Letter |

    Topographic variations result in microclimatic heterogeneity that can substantially reduce extinction risk from climate change, according to a study of 430 climate-threatened and range-declining species in England.

    • Andrew J. Suggitt
    • , Robert J. Wilson
    • , Nick J. B. Isaac
    • , Colin M. Beale
    • , Alistair G. Auffret
    • , Tom August
    • , Jonathan J. Bennie
    • , Humphrey Q. P. Crick
    • , Simon Duffield
    • , Richard Fox
    • , John J. Hopkins
    • , Nicholas A. Macgregor
    • , Mike D. Morecroft
    • , Kevin J. Walker
    •  & Ilya M. D. Maclean
  • Letter |

    Genomic tools and ocean circulation models show that organisms surface-drift across the Southern Ocean frequently. The extreme cold therefore keeps Antarctica biologically isolated, but as the climate warms new species may establish quickly.

    • Ceridwen I. Fraser
    • , Adele K. Morrison
    • , Andrew McC Hogg
    • , Erasmo C. Macaya
    • , Erik van Sebille
    • , Peter G. Ryan
    • , Amanda Padovan
    • , Cameron Jack
    • , Nelson Valdivia
    •  & Jonathan M. Waters
  • Letter |

    The growth of nitrogen-fixing marine cyanobacteria Trichodesmium is limited by iron availability under current conditions. However warmer temperatures reduce the iron requirement, allowing greater growth rates and increased nitrogen fixation.

    • Hai-Bo Jiang
    • , Fei-Xue Fu
    • , Sara Rivero-Calle
    • , Naomi M. Levine
    • , Sergio A. Sañudo-Wilhelmy
    • , Ping-Ping Qu
    • , Xin-Wei Wang
    • , Paulina Pinedo-Gonzalez
    • , Zhu Zhu
    •  & David A. Hutchins
  • Article |

    Biodiversity is positively associated with carbon density in highly disturbed tropical forests, but this relationship breaks down in relatively undisturbed areas. Consequently, carbon conservation schemes can fail to protect the most ecologically valuable forests.

    • Joice Ferreira
    • , Gareth D. Lennox
    • , Toby A. Gardner
    • , James R. Thomson
    • , Erika Berenguer
    • , Alexander C. Lees
    • , Ralph Mac Nally
    • , Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
    • , Silvio F. B. Ferraz
    • , Julio Louzada
    • , Nárgila G. Moura
    • , Victor H. F. Oliveira
    • , Renata Pardini
    • , Ricardo R. C. Solar
    • , Ima C. G. Vieira
    •  & Jos Barlow
  • Letter |

    Political bargaining has the potential to reverse Brazil’s deforestation control efforts. Integrated assessment modelling shows that weaker environmental governance threatens the country’s ability to achieve emissions consistent with a 2 °C goal.

    • Pedro R. R. Rochedo
    • , Britaldo Soares-Filho
    • , Roberto Schaeffer
    • , Eduardo Viola
    • , Alexandre Szklo
    • , André F. P. Lucena
    • , Alexandre Koberle
    • , Juliana Leroy Davis
    • , Raoni Rajão
    •  & Regis Rathmann