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The limits of modifying migration speed to adjust to climate change

Nature Climate Change volume 7, pages 573–576 (2017)Cite this article

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Matters Arising to this article was published on 26 March 2019

Abstract

Predicting the range of variation over which organisms can adjust to environmental change is a major challenge in ecology1,2. This is exemplified in migratory birds which experience changes in different habitats throughout the annual cycle3. Earlier studies showed European population trends declining strongest in migrant species with least adjustment in spring arrival time4,5. Thus, the increasing mismatches with other trophic levels in seasonal breeding areas6,7 probably contribute to their large-scale decline. Here we quantify the potential range of adjusting spring arrival dates through modifying migration speeds by reviewing 49 tracking studies. Among-individual variation in migration speed was mainly determined by the relatively short stop-over duration. Assuming this population response reflects individual phenotypic plasticity, we calculated the potential for phenotypic plasticity to speed-up migration by reducing stop-over duration. Even a 50% reduction would lead to a mere two-day advance in arrival, considering adjustments on the final 2,000 km of the spring journey. Hence, in contrast to previous studies8,9,10, flexibility in the major determinant of migration duration seems insufficient to adjust to ongoing climate change, and is unlikely to explain some of the observed arrival advancements in long-distance migrants.

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Figure 1: Total stop-over duration explains variation in total speed of migration in seven taxonomic bird groups.
Figure 2: Change in predicted total duration of migration as a function of a change in total stop-over duration in migratory songbirds and arrival dates of ten migratory birds between 1982 and 2016 (the Netherlands).

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Acknowledgements

We thank R. G. Bijlsma in sharing his excellent arrival data and A. Kölzsch for providing migration data of greater white-fronted geese. H.S. is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation)—SCHM 2647/1-2.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Avian Research “Vogelwarte Helgoland”, An der Vogelwarte 21, Wilhelmshaven, 26836, Germany

    Heiko Schmaljohann

  2. Conservation Ecology Group, Groningen Institute of Evolutionary Lifesciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, PO Box 11103, 9700 CC, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Christiaan Both

Authors
  1. Heiko Schmaljohann
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Contributions

H.S. designed the study. H.S. analysed the tracking data and modelled the phenotypic response. C.B. analysed the phenology data. H.S. and C.B. wrote the paper.

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Correspondence to Heiko Schmaljohann.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Schmaljohann, H., Both, C. The limits of modifying migration speed to adjust to climate change. Nature Clim Change 7, 573–576 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3336

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