Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Correspondence
  • Published:

Statistics of flood risk

Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages 843–844 (2014)Cite this article

Subjects

To the Editor —

Jongman et al.1 used numerically derived river discharges from climate simulations to estimate river flood risk for Europe for previous and future time periods. Based on mathematical statistics2,3,4,5,6,7, I argue here that the statistical modelling and assumptions underlying the study are inadequate and that the resulting risk estimations are poorly supported.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1

References

  1. Jongman, B. et al. Nature Clim. Change 4, 264–268 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Lindsey, J. K. Parametric Statistical Inference (Clarendon Press, 1996).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Upton, S. & Cook, I. A Dictionary of Statistics 2nd edn (Oxford Univ. Press, 2008).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  4. Genest, C. & Favre, A-C. J. Hydrol. Eng. 12, 34–368 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Stephens, M. A. in Goodness-of-Fit Techniques. Statistics: Textbooks and Monographs Vol. 68 (eds D'Augustino, R. B. & Stephens, M. A.) 97–193 (Dekker, 1986).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R. & Wood, E. F. Hydrol. Sci. J. 30, 85–109 (1985).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Genest, C., Rémillard, B. & Beaudoin, D. Insur. Math. Econ. 44, 199–213 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Keef, C., Svensson, C. & Tawn, J. A. J. Hydrol. 378, 240–252 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Keef, C., Tawn, J. A. & Svensson, C. Appl. Statist. 58, 601–618 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Ribatet, M. & Sedki, M. J. Soc. Française Statist. 153, 138–150 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Clark, R. T. Wat. Resour. Res. 38, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000917 (2002).

  12. van Gelder, P., Wamg, W. & Vrijling, J. K. Statistical Estimation Methods for Extreme Hydrological Events. New Concepts for Security 199–252 (Springer, 2007).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  13. Wan Jaafar, W. Z., Liu, J. & Han, D. Wat. Resour. Res. 47, W07503 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Independent Researcher, Stolze-Schrey-Strasse.1, Wiesbaden, 65195, Germany

    Mathias Raschke

Authors
  1. Mathias Raschke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mathias Raschke.

Supplementary information

Supplementary information

Supplementary Figures (PDF 422 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Raschke, M. Statistics of flood risk. Nature Clim Change 4, 843–844 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2373

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2373

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing