Predictions of a 40–140% increase in wheat yield by 2050, reported in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, are based on a simplistic approach that ignores key factors affecting yields and hence are seriously misleading.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Relevant articles
Open Access articles citing this article.
-
National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective
Climatic Change Open Access 21 December 2022
-
The electronic Rothamsted Archive (e-RA), an online resource for data from the Rothamsted long-term experiments
Scientific Data Open Access 15 May 2018
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
References
Knox, J. W., Hurford, A., Hargreaves, L. & Wall, E. Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Agriculture Sector (Defra, 2012).
Jenkins, G. J. et al. UK Climate Projections: Briefing Report (UK Met Office Hadley Centre, 2009).
IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
Semenov, M. A. & Shewry, P. R. Sci. Rep. 1, 66 (2011).
Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W. & Costa-Roberts, J. Science 333, 616–620 (2011).
Mitchell, R. A. C. et al. Plant Cell Environ. 18, 736–748 (1995).
Wheeler, T. R., Batts, G. R., Ellis, R. H., Hadley, P. & Morison, J. I. L. J. Agric. Sci. 127, 37–48 (1996).
Gibson, L. R. & Paulsen, G. M. Crop Sci. 39, 1841–1846 (1999).
You, L. Z., Rosegrant, M. W., Wood, S. & Sun, D. S. Agr. Forest Meteorol. 149, 1009–1014 (2009).
Lobell, B. D., Sibley, A. & Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I. Nature Clim. Change 2, 186–189 (2012).
Asseng, S., Foster, I. & Turner, N. C. T. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 997–1012 (2011).
Porter, J. R. & Semenov, M. A. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 2021–2035 (2005).
Jamieson, P. D. et al. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ. 82, 27–37 (2000).
Ewert, F. et al. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ. 93, 249–266 (2002).
Meehl, G. A. et al. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383–1394 (2007).
Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B., Nosberger, J. & Ort, D. R. Science 312, 1918–1921 (2006).
Wardlaw, I. F. & Moncur, L. Aust. J. Plant Physiol. 22, 391–397 (1995).
Acknowledgements
Rothamsted Research receives strategic funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council of the UK.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Semenov, M., Mitchell, R., Whitmore, A. et al. Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions. Nature Clim Change 2, 380–382 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1511
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1511
This article is cited by
-
National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective
Climatic Change (2022)
-
Rice straw burning: a review on its global prevalence and the sustainable alternatives for its effective mitigation
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2021)
-
Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments
Nature Sustainability (2020)
-
The electronic Rothamsted Archive (e-RA), an online resource for data from the Rothamsted long-term experiments
Scientific Data (2018)
-
Assessing climate risks to UK agriculture
Nature Climate Change (2012)
