Research Briefing

When the temperature increases, so do the energetic requirements of species. We find that the energetic stress caused by increases in temperature pushes fish species to consume the first prey they encounter to fulfil their immediate needs, rather than focusing on more energetically rewarding prey. This behaviour increases the vulnerability of communities to climate change.

Analysis of patent data from 1990 to 2019 reveals a global decline in the invention and international diffusion of high-quality methane-targeted abatement technologies (MTATs) from 2010 to 2019. Moreover, there is a mismatch between where MTAT inventions are concentrated and the countries or regions expected to have most growth in future methane emissions.

Groundwater recharge replenishes aquifers and enables them to sustain irrigated agriculture and household water access, but the sensitivity of recharge to climate change remains unclear. Our analysis of global recharge rates demonstrates their sensitivity to climatic conditions, implying that amplified and nonlinear impacts of climate change on recharge rates are likely.

In a changing climate, tree trunks serve as crucial refuges for animals, particularly ectotherms, seeking to escape extreme climatic conditions. Therefore, while climate change could generally promote population growth among ectotherms, deforestation could reverse these positive effects in some populations or exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change in others.

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are an important component of the equatorial Pacific climate. An analysis of satellite observations, in situ measurements and ocean circulation models indicates that TIW activity has intensified in the central equatorial Pacific by approximately 12 ± 6% per decade since the 1990s.

Aerial photographs collected during mapping expeditions of Greenland’s coastline represent the only robust, widespread observations of twentieth-century glacier change for this vast island. We use this unique dataset to document the response of Greenland’s peripheral glaciers to climate change over approximately 130 years, providing enhanced confidence that recent changes are exceptional on a century timescale.

Assessing progress and gaps in climate adaptation is a key policy concern, and also raises scientific challenges around which metrics should be used and who should assess progress. A structured expert judgement using local case studies shows that, for coastal areas, today’s global adaptation is halfway to achieving the full adaptation potential.

An insight into the global patterns of marine heatwaves from the surface to depths of 2,000 m reveals that subsurface events are more intense and long-lasting than surface ones. Biodiversity exposure to the effects of marine heatwaves is higher at depths of 50–250 m, suggesting that subsurface biodiversity could be at considerable risk.

A multi-model analysis shows that the incorporation of advances in damage functions — namely growth effects — substantially increases the social cost estimates of methane and nitrous oxide, although uncertainty remains.

Emission savings from three circular economy strategies aiming to close, slow and narrow China’s bulk material loops have been analysed using an integrated model. This analysis highlights that material recycling delivers substantial emission cuts, but demand reduction is equally crucial for decarbonizing bulk materials.

Weather station records are too short and sparse to effectively detect the signature of climate change in Antarctica. Using the isotopic composition of ice cores as a temperature proxy suggests that Antarctica is warming faster than the global average temperature and expectations from climate models for the region.

A network of more than 100 researchers tracked trees for up to 30 years in forest plots across South America, enabling estimation of the impacts of record temperatures and drought on carbon dynamics. The carbon sink in these forests ceased during the 2015–2016 El Niño, with drier forests losing the most carbon.

Arctic uplands consume atmospheric methane, but whereas methane emissions are reasonably well studied, Arctic soil methane uptake is poorly understood. High-resolution measurements show that the Arctic soil methane sink might currently be underestimated, and is driven by soil moisture and labile carbon availability, implying increased methane uptake with climate change.

Satellite-based analysis indicates that the relative change in cloud droplet number concentration with relative change in aerosol concentration is sublinear, contrary to common assumptions. The revised nonlinear method predicts that in heavily polluted regions the additional warming due to improvements in air quality will occur two to three decades later than predicted by the linear method.

The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is uncertain on a rapidly warming planet. Geoengineering through solar radiation modification could halt global warming and potentially delay the demise of the ice sheet. But in high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios, collapse of the ice sheet ensues despite such intervention.

A net-zero change in tree cover is often considered to have no impact on the biophysical effects of forests. Satellite observations now reveal an asymmetric influence of gross tree-cover gain versus loss on land surface temperature. Neglecting this influence might lead to biases in quantifying the biophysical effects of forests.

Nature-based solutions, such as urban green spaces, are shown to contribute to carbon emissions reduction and carbon sequestration, and also to have valuable indirect effects and behavioural impacts. Implementing such solutions could achieve carbon neutrality within the decade in several major cities in Europe.

We established a comprehensive assessment framework to explore the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction potential from coal–biomass co-firing power plants with retrofitted carbon capture and storage (CBECCS) in China. Optimal spatiotemporal deployment of the CBECCS transition could achieve CO₂ mitigation of 1.6 Gt yr⁻¹ in 2040 and 41.2 Gt cumulatively over the period 2025–2060.

An integrated assessment model calibrated on past economic and climate development is used to estimate the historical time-series of the social costs of carbon from 1950 to 2018. The extent to which individual countries reduced global wealth through their fossil and industrial-process carbon dioxide emissions was then assessed.

The potential effect of globally expanding organic farming on cropland soil organic carbon stocks has been estimated using a modelling approach. The results reveal that large-scale expansion of organic farming could lead to a reduction in soil organic carbon stocks unless appropriate farming practices, such as increased cover cropping, are adopted.