Letters

  • Letter |

    Apparent temperature, the perceived temperature from air temperature, humidity and wind combined, is projected to increase faster than air temperature. Thermal discomfort will see greater increases in summertime, outweighing wintertime decreases.

    • Jianfeng Li
    • , Yongqin David Chen
    • , Thian Yew Gan
    •  & Ngar-Cheung Lau
  • Letter |

    Arid regions are projected to expand in the future. An ensemble of climate model simulations reveals that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C can markedly reduce the area undergoing, and thus the population exposed to, aridification.

    • Chang-Eui Park
    • , Su-Jong Jeong
    • , Manoj Joshi
    • , Timothy J. Osborn
    • , Chang-Hoi Ho
    • , Shilong Piao
    • , Deliang Chen
    • , Junguo Liu
    • , Hong Yang
    • , Hoonyoung Park
    • , Baek-Min Kim
    •  & Song Feng
  • Letter |

    Combining historical aerial surveys, expedition photographs, and both spy and modern satellite imagery reveals a pronounced retreat of peripheral glaciers in east and west Greenland, linked to changes in precipitation associated with the NAO.

    • A. A. Bjørk
    • , S. Aagaard
    • , A. Lütt
    • , S. A. Khan
    • , J. E. Box
    • , K. K. Kjeldsen
    • , N. K. Larsen
    • , N. J. Korsgaard
    • , J. Cappelen
    • , W. T. Colgan
    • , H. Machguth
    • , C. S. Andresen
    • , Y. Peings
    •  & K. H. Kjær
  • Letter |

    Climate change is predicted to increase soil carbon losses. However, manipulation experiments suggest detritivore feeding activity — a key driver of organic matter decomposition — will decline with warming and drying, reducing positive soil feedbacks.

    • Madhav P. Thakur
    • , Peter B. Reich
    • , Sarah E. Hobbie
    • , Artur Stefanski
    • , Roy Rich
    • , Karen E. Rice
    • , William C. Eddy
    •  & Nico Eisenhauer
  • Letter |

    Ice loss from Antarctica is sensitive to changes in ice shelves. Finite-element modelling reveals that localized ice-shelf thinning, particularly in locations vulnerable to warm water intrusion, can have far-reaching impacts via tele-buttressing.

    • R. Reese
    • , G. H. Gudmundsson
    • , A. Levermann
    •  & R. Winkelmann
  • Letter |

    The cost of preserving ecosystem storage of carbon varies depending on local land-use and socio-political pressures. A survey of experts suggests a cost-minimizing distribution would be more effective for mitigation than equitable distribution.

    • Markku Larjavaara
    • , Markku Kanninen
    • , Harold Gordillo
    • , Joni Koskinen
    • , Markus Kukkonen
    • , Niina Käyhkö
    • , Anne M. Larson
    •  & Sven Wunder
  • Letter |

    Reductions in precipitation and water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Niño events (1997–2016). Fires follow a predictable cascade across tropical continents that may improve seasonal fire forecasts.

    • Yang Chen
    • , Douglas C. Morton
    • , Niels Andela
    • , Guido R. van der Werf
    • , Louis Giglio
    •  & James T. Randerson
  • Letter |

    Climate and CO2 trends have driven significant changes in global crop water demand over the last 30 years but with variation by region and crop type. If trends continue, it could be a challenge for adaptation efforts to keep pace with water demand.

    • Daniel W. Urban
    • , Justin Sheffield
    •  & David B. Lobell
  • Letter |

    Changes in deep-water ventilation could potentially cause acidification from organic matter breakdown. The Sea of Japan has an acidification rate 27% higher at depth than at the surface, showing how reduced ventilation from warming could impact the deep ocean.

    • Chen-Tung Arthur Chen
    • , Hon-Kit Lui
    • , Chia-Han Hsieh
    • , Tetsuo Yanagi
    • , Naohiro Kosugi
    • , Masao Ishii
    •  & Gwo-Ching Gong
  • Letter |

    Limitations with climate models have previously prevented accurate diagnosis of future changes in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). A convection-permitting model now indicates that summer MCSs will triple by 2100 in the United States, with a corresponding increase in rainfall rates and areal extent.

    • Andreas F. Prein
    • , Changhai Liu
    • , Kyoko Ikeda
    • , Stanley B. Trier
    • , Roy M. Rasmussen
    • , Greg J. Holland
    •  & Martyn P. Clark
  • Letter |

    The Arctic is under-represented in surface temperature datasets and this could affect estimates of global warming. A new dataset with greater coverage of the Arctic shows a higher warming rate of 0.112 °C per decade compared to 0.005 °C from IPCC AR5.

    • Jianbin Huang
    • , Xiangdong Zhang
    • , Qiyi Zhang
    • , Yanluan Lin
    • , Mingju Hao
    • , Yong Luo
    • , Zongci Zhao
    • , Yao Yao
    • , Xin Chen
    • , Lei Wang
    • , Suping Nie
    • , Yizhou Yin
    • , Ying Xu
    •  & Jiansong Zhang
  • Letter |

    Achieving the longer-term goals of the Paris Agreement and transformation to a low-carbon society requires an acceleration in electricity generation investment and capacity addition above that outlined in the US Nationally Determined Contribution.

    • Gokul Iyer
    • , Catherine Ledna
    • , Leon Clarke
    • , James Edmonds
    • , Haewon McJeon
    • , Page Kyle
    •  & James H Williams
  • Letter |

    Post-monsoon season severe cyclonic storms were first observed over the Arabian Sea in 2014 and 2015. Highresolution modelling reveals their increased frequency can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing, and not natural variability.

    • Hiroyuki Murakami
    • , Gabriel A. Vecchi
    •  & Seth Underwood
  • Letter |

    Warming interacts with forest disturbance and drought to shape the energetic structure of soil food webs; these changes can undermine the provision of multiple ecosystem functions in transitional boreal–temperate forests.

    • Benjamin Schwarz
    • , Andrew D. Barnes
    • , Madhav P. Thakur
    • , Ulrich Brose
    • , Marcel Ciobanu
    • , Peter B. Reich
    • , Roy L. Rich
    • , Benjamin Rosenbaum
    • , Artur Stefanski
    •  & Nico Eisenhauer
  • Letter |

    Water-cooled power plants will be affected by changes in water availability and temperature. A system approach examines US thermoelectric power generation and finds whilst individual plants may face constraints, overall the current system can adapt.

    • Ariel Miara
    • , Jordan E. Macknick
    • , Charles J. Vörösmarty
    • , Vincent C. Tidwell
    • , Robin Newmark
    •  & Balazs Fekete
  • Letter |

    Biofuels have lower CO2 emissions than fossil fuels, but competing land demands can limit expansion of production. This study shows Brazilian sugarcane ethanol could displace up to 13% of global crude oil consumption by 2045 whilst balancing forest conservation and future land demand for food.

    • Deepak Jaiswal
    • , Amanda P. De Souza
    • , Søren Larsen
    • , David S. LeBauer
    • , Fernando E. Miguez
    • , Gerd Sparovek
    • , Germán Bollero
    • , Marcos S. Buckeridge
    •  & Stephen P. Long
  • Letter |

    Changes in European river flow have amplified the dry-south–wet-north contrast. Model simulations show that anthropogenic climate change accounts for this change with strong decreases in the Mediterranean and weak increases in northern Europe.

    • Lukas Gudmundsson
    • , Sonia I. Seneviratne
    •  & Xuebin Zhang
  • Letter |

    As a global media event, COP 21 had the potential to enhance understanding and motivate political action. This study shows that although media coverage reached the German public and promoted conference-specific knowledge, this did not translate into active engagement.

    • Michael Brüggemann
    • , Fenja De Silva-Schmidt
    • , Imke Hoppe
    • , Dorothee Arlt
    •  & Josephine B. Schmitt
  • Letter |

    Past studies suggest the North American monsoon will weaken in the future. Correcting for model sea-surface temperature biases, however, reveals a reduction in monsoon-related precipitation due to increased atmospheric stability.

    • Salvatore Pascale
    • , William R. Boos
    • , Simona Bordoni
    • , Thomas L. Delworth
    • , Sarah B. Kapnick
    • , Hiroyuki Murakami
    • , Gabriel A. Vecchi
    •  & Wei Zhang
  • Letter |

    Distribution modelling of vascular plants, butterflies and grasshoppers in central Europe suggests that habitat-based conservation strategies will be insufficient to save species from regional extinction under twenty-first-century climate change.

    • Johannes Wessely
    • , Karl Hülber
    • , Andreas Gattringer
    • , Michael Kuttner
    • , Dietmar Moser
    • , Wolfgang Rabitsch
    • , Stefan Schindler
    • , Stefan Dullinger
    •  & Franz Essl
  • Letter |

    Projections of future climate do not typically include the effects of volcanic activity. By incorporating a range of volcanic futures into a coupled model, it is shown that volcanic forcing has quantifiable impacts on the time at which anthropogenic signatures emerge across various climate metrics.

    • Ingo Bethke
    • , Stephen Outten
    • , Odd Helge Otterå
    • , Ed Hawkins
    • , Sebastian Wagner
    • , Michael Sigl
    •  & Peter Thorne