Articles

  • Article |

    Global estimates of the economic impacts of CO2 emissions may obscure regional heterogeneities. A modular framework for estimating the country-level social cost of carbon shows consistently unequal country-level costs.

    • Katharine Ricke
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Ken Caldeira
    •  & Massimo Tavoni
  • Article |

    The model–inventory discrepancy in net land-use carbon emissions mainly results from conceptual differences in estimating anthropogenic forest sinks. A revised disaggregation of global land model results allows greater comparability with inventories.

    • Giacomo Grassi
    • , Jo House
    • , Werner A. Kurz
    • , Alessandro Cescatti
    • , Richard A. Houghton
    • , Glen P. Peters
    • , Maria J. Sanz
    • , Raul Abad Viñas
    • , Ramdane Alkama
    • , Almut Arneth
    • , Alberte Bondeau
    • , Frank Dentener
    • , Marianela Fader
    • , Sandro Federici
    • , Pierre Friedlingstein
    • , Atul K. Jain
    • , Etsushi Kato
    • , Charles D. Koven
    • , Donna Lee
    • , Julia E. M. S. Nabel
    • , Alexander A. Nassikas
    • , Lucia Perugini
    • , Simone Rossi
    • , Stephen Sitch
    • , Nicolas Viovy
    • , Andy Wiltshire
    •  & Sönke Zaehle
  • Article |

    The connections between global mean temperature and precipitation responses to CO2 doubling (equilibrium climate and hydrological sensitivity) are driven through low-cloud responses to surface warming, according to MIROC5 perturbation experiments.

    • Masahiro Watanabe
    • , Youichi Kamae
    • , Hideo Shiogama
    • , Anthony M. DeAngelis
    •  & Kentaroh Suzuki
  • Article |

    Analysis of peatland carbon accumulation over the last millennium and its association with global-scale climate space indicates an ongoing carbon sink into the future, but with decreasing strength as conditions warm.

    • Angela V. Gallego-Sala
    • , Dan J. Charman
    • , Simon Brewer
    • , Susan E. Page
    • , I. Colin Prentice
    • , Pierre Friedlingstein
    • , Steve Moreton
    • , Matthew J. Amesbury
    • , David W. Beilman
    • , Svante Björck
    • , Tatiana Blyakharchuk
    • , Christopher Bochicchio
    • , Robert K. Booth
    • , Joan Bunbury
    • , Philip Camill
    • , Donna Carless
    • , Rodney A. Chimner
    • , Michael Clifford
    • , Elizabeth Cressey
    • , Colin Courtney-Mustaphi
    • , François De Vleeschouwer
    • , Rixt de Jong
    • , Barbara Fialkiewicz-Koziel
    • , Sarah A. Finkelstein
    • , Michelle Garneau
    • , Esther Githumbi
    • , John Hribjlan
    • , James Holmquist
    • , Paul D. M. Hughes
    • , Chris Jones
    • , Miriam C. Jones
    • , Edgar Karofeld
    • , Eric S. Klein
    • , Ulla Kokfelt
    • , Atte Korhola
    • , Terri Lacourse
    • , Gael Le Roux
    • , Mariusz Lamentowicz
    • , David Large
    • , Martin Lavoie
    • , Julie Loisel
    • , Helen Mackay
    • , Glen M. MacDonald
    • , Markku Makila
    • , Gabriel Magnan
    • , Robert Marchant
    • , Katarzyna Marcisz
    • , Antonio Martínez Cortizas
    • , Charly Massa
    • , Paul Mathijssen
    • , Dmitri Mauquoy
    • , Timothy Mighall
    • , Fraser J. G. Mitchell
    • , Patrick Moss
    • , Jonathan Nichols
    • , Pirita O. Oksanen
    • , Lisa Orme
    • , Maara S. Packalen
    • , Stephen Robinson
    • , Thomas P. Roland
    • , Nicole K. Sanderson
    • , A. Britta K. Sannel
    • , Noemí Silva-Sánchez
    • , Natascha Steinberg
    • , Graeme T. Swindles
    • , T. Edward Turner
    • , Joanna Uglow
    • , Minna Väliranta
    • , Simon van Bellen
    • , Marjolein van der Linden
    • , Bas van Geel
    • , Guoping Wang
    • , Zicheng Yu
    • , Joana Zaragoza-Castells
    •  & Yan Zhao
  • Article |

    In economic games, players shift to riskier contributions when targets that prevent catastrophic losses cannot be met otherwise, suggesting people are willing to invest in riskier technology when more certain options will not be sufficient to mitigate climate change.

    • Talbot M. Andrews
    • , Andrew W. Delton
    •  & Reuben Kline
  • Article |

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 (550 ppm) could cause an additional 175 million people to be zinc deficient and 122 million protein deficient (assuming 2050 population and CO2 projections) due to the reduced nutritional value of staple food crops.

    • Matthew R. Smith
    •  & Samuel S. Myers
  • Article |

    Climate issues are increasingly being presented before the courts, with both pro- and anti-regulation litigants aiming to affect policy outcomes. Analysis of domestic US climate lawsuits and interview data reveals the type of case and the strategies that succeed.

    • Sabrina McCormick
    • , Robert L. Glicksman
    • , Samuel J. Simmens
    • , LeRoy Paddock
    • , Daniel Kim
    •  & Brittany Whited
  • Article |

    A 1 °C increase in monthly average temperature is associated with higher suicide rates in the United States and Mexico. Combined with comparable analysis of depressive language in US Twitter updates, these results suggest a link between higher temperatures and mental well-being.

    • Marshall Burke
    • , Felipe González
    • , Patrick Baylis
    • , Sam Heft-Neal
    • , Ceren Baysan
    • , Sanjay Basu
    •  & Solomon Hsiang
  • Article |

    Marine fishes exposed to elevated CO2 levels can have altered responses to sensory cues. Research now reveals a physiological and molecular mechanism in the olfactory system that helps to explain this altered behaviour under elevated CO2.

    • Cosima S. Porteus
    • , Peter C. Hubbard
    • , Tamsyn M. Uren Webster
    • , Ronny van Aerle
    • , Adelino V. M. Canário
    • , Eduarda M. Santos
    •  & Rod W. Wilson
  • Article |

    Biodiversity is positively associated with carbon density in highly disturbed tropical forests, but this relationship breaks down in relatively undisturbed areas. Consequently, carbon conservation schemes can fail to protect the most ecologically valuable forests.

    • Joice Ferreira
    • , Gareth D. Lennox
    • , Toby A. Gardner
    • , James R. Thomson
    • , Erika Berenguer
    • , Alexander C. Lees
    • , Ralph Mac Nally
    • , Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
    • , Silvio F. B. Ferraz
    • , Julio Louzada
    • , Nárgila G. Moura
    • , Victor H. F. Oliveira
    • , Renata Pardini
    • , Ricardo R. C. Solar
    • , Ima C. G. Vieira
    •  & Jos Barlow
  • Article |

    The ratio of plant transpiration to total terrestrial evapotranspiration (T/ET) captures the role of vegetation in surface–atmosphere interactions. An emergent constraint approach strongly increases existing model T/ET estimates with implications for river flows.

    • Xu Lian
    • , Shilong Piao
    • , Chris Huntingford
    • , Yue Li
    • , Zhenzhong Zeng
    • , Xuhui Wang
    • , Philippe Ciais
    • , Tim R. McVicar
    • , Shushi Peng
    • , Catherine Ottlé
    • , Hui Yang
    • , Yuting Yang
    • , Yongqiang Zhang
    •  & Tao Wang
  • Article |

    Residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels limit the likelihood of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. A sector-level assessment of residual emissions using an ensemble of IAMs indicates that 640–950 GtCO2 removal will be required to constrain warming to 1.5 °C.

    • Gunnar Luderer
    • , Zoi Vrontisi
    • , Christoph Bertram
    • , Oreane Y. Edelenbosch
    • , Robert C. Pietzcker
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    • , Harmen Sytze De Boer
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Johannes Emmerling
    • , Oliver Fricko
    • , Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Gokul Iyer
    • , Kimon Keramidas
    • , Alban Kitous
    • , Michaja Pehl
    • , Volker Krey
    • , Keywan Riahi
    • , Bert Saveyn
    • , Massimo Tavoni
    • , Detlef P. Van Vuuren
    •  & Elmar Kriegler
  • Article |

    The northern Barents Sea has warmed rapidly in recent decades. Hydrographic observations suggest increases in ocean temperature—particularly after the mid-2000s—can be linked to reduced sea-ice import, freshwater loss, weakened stratification and increased upward heat fluxes from the deep Atlantic layer.

    • Sigrid Lind
    • , Randi B. Ingvaldsen
    •  & Tore Furevik
  • Article |

    Editorials in multi-disciplinary journals can influence professional scientists and wider public discourse. This study compares how editorials on climate change in Nature and Science have changed over time and in response to wider political events

    • Mike Hulme
    • , Noam Obermeister
    • , Samuel Randalls
    •  & Maud Borie
  • Article |

    A global model that incorporates information about coastal environmental settings indicates that mangrove soil organic carbon stocks have been significantly underestimated in carbonate settings, and overestimated in deltaic coastlines.

    • André S. Rovai
    • , Robert R. Twilley
    • , Edward Castañeda-Moya
    • , Pablo Riul
    • , Miguel Cifuentes-Jara
    • , Marilyn Manrow-Villalobos
    • , Paulo A. Horta
    • , José C. Simonassi
    • , Alessandra L. Fonseca
    •  & Paulo R. Pagliosa
  • Article |

    Tree transpiration in the Amazon enhances downwind rainfall. Research now shows that approximately one-third of Amazon rainfall originates within its own basin, with the southern half of the basin contributing most to this effect.

    • Arie Staal
    • , Obbe A. Tuinenburg
    • , Joyce H. C. Bosmans
    • , Milena Holmgren
    • , Egbert H. van Nes
    • , Marten Scheffer
    • , Delphine Clara Zemp
    •  & Stefan C. Dekker
  • Article |

    Tourism is a significant contributor to the global economy, with potentially large environmental impacts. Origin and destination accounting perspectives are used to provide a comprehensive assessment of global tourism’s carbon footprint.

    • Manfred Lenzen
    • , Ya-Yen Sun
    • , Futu Faturay
    • , Yuan-Peng Ting
    • , Arne Geschke
    •  & Arunima Malik
  • Article |

    The effects of projected ocean acidification on primary productivity of the Arctic and subarctic shelf seas are found to be minimal, with the phytoplankton communities showing a high capacity to compensate for environmental change.

    • Clara Jule Marie Hoppe
    • , Klara K. E. Wolf
    • , Nina Schuback
    • , Philippe D. Tortell
    •  & Björn Rost
  • Article |

    Increasing zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation is projected by 2100, with increases over Asian and African forests and decreases over South American forests. Plant physiological responses to increasing CO2 are now identified as a primary driving mechanism.

    • Gabriel J. Kooperman
    • , Yang Chen
    • , Forrest M. Hoffman
    • , Charles D. Koven
    • , Keith Lindsay
    • , Michael S. Pritchard
    • , Abigail L. S. Swann
    •  & James T. Randerson
  • Article |

    The co-benefits of carbon pricing in China are investigated by a cross-scale modelling approach. The health benefits from reduced emissions and improved air quality could offset the climate policy costs.

    • Mingwei Li
    • , Da Zhang
    • , Chiao-Ting Li
    • , Kathleen M. Mulvaney
    • , Noelle E. Selin
    •  & Valerie J. Karplus
  • Article |

    California recently experienced a rapid shift from multi-year drought to abundant rainfall. A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of extreme wet-to-dry precipitation events will increase by 25% to 100% across California due to anthropogenic forcing.

    • Daniel L. Swain
    • , Baird Langenbrunner
    • , J. David Neelin
    •  & Alex Hall
  • Article |

    Severe drought plagued Europe in 2003, amplifying heatwave conditions that killed more than 30,000 people. Assuming business as usual, such soil moisture deficits will become twice as frequent in the future and affect up to two-thirds of the European population.

    • L. Samaniego
    • , S. Thober
    • , R. Kumar
    • , N. Wanders
    • , O. Rakovec
    • , M. Pan
    • , M. Zink
    • , J. Sheffield
    • , E. F. Wood
    •  & A. Marx
  • Article |

    Scenarios that constrain warming to 1.5 °C currently place a large emphasis on CO2 removal. Alternative pathways involving lifestyle change, rapid electrification and reduction of non-CO2 gases could reduce the need for such negative emission technologies.

    • Detlef P. van Vuuren
    • , Elke Stehfest
    • , David E. H. J. Gernaat
    • , Maarten van den Berg
    • , David L. Bijl
    • , Harmen Sytze de Boer
    • , Vassilis Daioglou
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Oreane Y. Edelenbosch
    • , Mathijs Harmsen
    • , Andries F. Hof
    •  & Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld
  • Article |

    Fisheries generated a total of 179 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent GHG emissions in 2011 (4% of global food production). Emissions grew by 28% between 1990 and 2011, primarily driven by increased harvests from fuel-intensive crustacean fisheries.

    • Robert W. R. Parker
    • , Julia L. Blanchard
    • , Caleb Gardner
    • , Bridget S. Green
    • , Klaas Hartmann
    • , Peter H. Tyedmers
    •  & Reg A. Watson
  • Article |

    Nations are currently pursuing efforts to constrain anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C. In such a world, model projections suggest the Arctic will be ice-free every one in forty years, compared to one in every five under stabilized 2 °C warming.

    • Michael Sigmond
    • , John C. Fyfe
    •  & Neil C. Swart
  • Article |

    Marine ecosystems and their stored carbon are threatened by warming and marine heatwaves. During a 2010–2011 heatwave, around a third of a Western Australian seagrass ecosystem suffered damage, potentially releasing 2–9 Tg CO2 in the following years.

    • A. Arias-Ortiz
    • , O. Serrano
    • , P. Masqué
    • , P. S. Lavery
    • , U. Mueller
    • , G. A. Kendrick
    • , M. Rozaimi
    • , A. Esteban
    • , J. W. Fourqurean
    • , N. Marbà
    • , M. A. Mateo
    • , K. Murray
    • , M. J. Rule
    •  & C. M. Duarte
  • Article |

    Scenarios that constrain end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m–2, and thus global mean temperature increases to below 1.5 °C, are explored. Effective scenarios reduce energy use, deploy CO2 removal measures, and shift to non-emitting energy sources.

    • Joeri Rogelj
    • , Alexander Popp
    • , Katherine V. Calvin
    • , Gunnar Luderer
    • , Johannes Emmerling
    • , David Gernaat
    • , Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Jessica Strefler
    • , Tomoko Hasegawa
    • , Giacomo Marangoni
    • , Volker Krey
    • , Elmar Kriegler
    • , Keywan Riahi
    • , Detlef P. van Vuuren
    • , Jonathan Doelman
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Jae Edmonds
    • , Oliver Fricko
    • , Mathijs Harmsen
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Florian Humpenöder
    • , Elke Stehfest
    •  & Massimo Tavoni
  • Article |

    Ecological niche modelling of king penguins in the Southern Ocean, validated with population genomics and palaeodemography data, is used to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia under climate change.

    • Robin Cristofari
    • , Xiaoming Liu
    • , Francesco Bonadonna
    • , Yves Cherel
    • , Pierre Pistorius
    • , Yvon Le Maho
    • , Virginie Raybaud
    • , Nils Christian Stenseth
    • , Céline Le Bohec
    •  & Emiliano Trucchi
  • Article |

    Large-scale sea-level rise is primarily dominated by thermal expansion and ice melt. However, wave processes are found to significantly influence local sea-level trends at the coast, amplifying or reducing steric and eustatic contributions.

    • Angélique Melet
    • , Benoit Meyssignac
    • , Rafael Almar
    •  & Gonéri Le Cozannet
  • Article |

    In comparison to conventional bonds, green bonds have been penalized on the municipal market. However, in recent years the credit quality of green bonds has improved, and they now represent an increasingly feasible option to unlock climate finance.

    • Andreas Karpf
    •  & Antoine Mandel
  • Article |

    A spatially extensive survey of lake CH4 and CO2 emissions in Arctic Alaska shows the source material to be primarily relatively young organic matter (up to about 3,500 years old). Contributions from ancient C sources were twice as large in fine textured sediments.

    • Clayton D. Elder
    • , Xiaomei Xu
    • , Jennifer Walker
    • , Jordan L. Schnell
    • , Kenneth M. Hinkel
    • , Amy Townsend-Small
    • , Christopher D. Arp
    • , John W. Pohlman
    • , Benjamin V. Gaglioti
    •  & Claudia I. Czimczik
  • Article |

    Human behaviour is an important driver of emissions. A system-dynamics model that couples a psychological model of behaviour with a model of emissions and climate change shows that behaviour can influence global temperature in the year 2100 by up to 1.5 °C.

    • Brian Beckage
    • , Louis J. Gross
    • , Katherine Lacasse
    • , Eric Carr
    • , Sara S. Metcalf
    • , Jonathan M. Winter
    • , Peter D. Howe
    • , Nina Fefferman
    • , Travis Franck
    • , Asim Zia
    • , Ann Kinzig
    •  & Forrest M. Hoffman
  • Article |

    Here emission curves are developed for advanced biofuel supply chains to enhance understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting for landscape heterogeneity.

    • Vassilis Daioglou
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Elke Stehfest
    • , Christoph Müller
    • , Birka Wicke
    • , Andre Faaij
    •  & Detlef P. van Vuuren
  • Article |

    The ocean is a key part of the climate system but is often neglected in individual country priorities. Analysis of Nationally Determined Contributions reveals 70% include marine issues. The level of inclusion varies dependent on country factors including vulnerability to rising seas.

    • Natalya D. Gallo
    • , David G. Victor
    •  & Lisa A. Levin
  • Article |

    Climate change may drive migration from affected regions. This study shows that, because skilled individuals will have greater migration opportunities, climate change may lead parents to have fewer children and invest more in each individual child, with consequences for local income inequality.

    • Soheil Shayegh
  • Article |

    The bleaching threat to coral reefs from warming is increasing, but risk locations are not clear. This study relates regional sea surface temperature variability to bleaching sensitivity and the future risk to coral reefs.

    • C. E. Langlais
    • , A. Lenton
    • , S. F. Heron
    • , C. Evenhuis
    • , A. Sen Gupta
    • , J. N. Brown
    •  & M. Kuchinke
  • Article |

    A typology of four perspectives on loss and damage is developed based on the study of actor perspectives, including interviews with stakeholders in research, practice, and policy. This may help with navigation of this necessarily ambiguous territory.

    • Emily Boyd
    • , Rachel A. James
    • , Richard G. Jones
    • , Hannah R. Young
    •  & Friederike E. L. Otto
  • Article |

    The composition of international scientific assessments influences their credibility. This study shows that membership nomination in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was driven by a group of core individuals based on prior institutional co-membership.

    • Philip Leifeld
    •  & Dana R. Fisher
  • Article |

    The use of cross-sectoral strategies, such as the exchange of waste energy through co-location of industry, business and residential areas, is shown to be effective for greenhouse gas and particulate mitigation in this study of 637 Chinese cities.

    • Anu Ramaswami
    • , Kangkang Tong
    • , Andrew Fang
    • , Raj M. Lal
    • , Ajay Singh Nagpure
    • , Yang Li
    • , Huajun Yu
    • , Daqian Jiang
    • , Armistead G. Russell
    • , Lei Shi
    • , Marian Chertow
    • , Yangjun Wang
    •  & Shuxiao Wang
  • Article |

    Warming waters are causing marine species to shift; however, how species found in the cold waters of the Southern Ocean will adapt is unclear. This study projects significant habitat reductions for individual benthic taxa and benthic communities over the next century.

    • Huw J. Griffiths
    • , Andrew J. S. Meijers
    •  & Thomas J. Bracegirdle