Articles

  • Article |

    Editorials in multi-disciplinary journals can influence professional scientists and wider public discourse. This study compares how editorials on climate change in Nature and Science have changed over time and in response to wider political events

    • Mike Hulme
    • , Noam Obermeister
    • , Samuel Randalls
    •  & Maud Borie
  • Article |

    A global model that incorporates information about coastal environmental settings indicates that mangrove soil organic carbon stocks have been significantly underestimated in carbonate settings, and overestimated in deltaic coastlines.

    • André S. Rovai
    • , Robert R. Twilley
    • , Edward Castañeda-Moya
    • , Pablo Riul
    • , Miguel Cifuentes-Jara
    • , Marilyn Manrow-Villalobos
    • , Paulo A. Horta
    • , José C. Simonassi
    • , Alessandra L. Fonseca
    •  & Paulo R. Pagliosa
  • Article |

    Tree transpiration in the Amazon enhances downwind rainfall. Research now shows that approximately one-third of Amazon rainfall originates within its own basin, with the southern half of the basin contributing most to this effect.

    • Arie Staal
    • , Obbe A. Tuinenburg
    • , Joyce H. C. Bosmans
    • , Milena Holmgren
    • , Egbert H. van Nes
    • , Marten Scheffer
    • , Delphine Clara Zemp
    •  & Stefan C. Dekker
  • Article |

    Tourism is a significant contributor to the global economy, with potentially large environmental impacts. Origin and destination accounting perspectives are used to provide a comprehensive assessment of global tourism’s carbon footprint.

    • Manfred Lenzen
    • , Ya-Yen Sun
    • , Futu Faturay
    • , Yuan-Peng Ting
    • , Arne Geschke
    •  & Arunima Malik
  • Article |

    The effects of projected ocean acidification on primary productivity of the Arctic and subarctic shelf seas are found to be minimal, with the phytoplankton communities showing a high capacity to compensate for environmental change.

    • Clara Jule Marie Hoppe
    • , Klara K. E. Wolf
    • , Nina Schuback
    • , Philippe D. Tortell
    •  & Björn Rost
  • Article |

    Increasing zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation is projected by 2100, with increases over Asian and African forests and decreases over South American forests. Plant physiological responses to increasing CO2 are now identified as a primary driving mechanism.

    • Gabriel J. Kooperman
    • , Yang Chen
    • , Forrest M. Hoffman
    • , Charles D. Koven
    • , Keith Lindsay
    • , Michael S. Pritchard
    • , Abigail L. S. Swann
    •  & James T. Randerson
  • Article |

    The co-benefits of carbon pricing in China are investigated by a cross-scale modelling approach. The health benefits from reduced emissions and improved air quality could offset the climate policy costs.

    • Mingwei Li
    • , Da Zhang
    • , Chiao-Ting Li
    • , Kathleen M. Mulvaney
    • , Noelle E. Selin
    •  & Valerie J. Karplus
  • Article |

    California recently experienced a rapid shift from multi-year drought to abundant rainfall. A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of extreme wet-to-dry precipitation events will increase by 25% to 100% across California due to anthropogenic forcing.

    • Daniel L. Swain
    • , Baird Langenbrunner
    • , J. David Neelin
    •  & Alex Hall
  • Article |

    Severe drought plagued Europe in 2003, amplifying heatwave conditions that killed more than 30,000 people. Assuming business as usual, such soil moisture deficits will become twice as frequent in the future and affect up to two-thirds of the European population.

    • L. Samaniego
    • , S. Thober
    • , R. Kumar
    • , N. Wanders
    • , O. Rakovec
    • , M. Pan
    • , M. Zink
    • , J. Sheffield
    • , E. F. Wood
    •  & A. Marx
  • Article |

    Scenarios that constrain warming to 1.5 °C currently place a large emphasis on CO2 removal. Alternative pathways involving lifestyle change, rapid electrification and reduction of non-CO2 gases could reduce the need for such negative emission technologies.

    • Detlef P. van Vuuren
    • , Elke Stehfest
    • , David E. H. J. Gernaat
    • , Maarten van den Berg
    • , David L. Bijl
    • , Harmen Sytze de Boer
    • , Vassilis Daioglou
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Oreane Y. Edelenbosch
    • , Mathijs Harmsen
    • , Andries F. Hof
    •  & Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld
  • Article |

    Fisheries generated a total of 179 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent GHG emissions in 2011 (4% of global food production). Emissions grew by 28% between 1990 and 2011, primarily driven by increased harvests from fuel-intensive crustacean fisheries.

    • Robert W. R. Parker
    • , Julia L. Blanchard
    • , Caleb Gardner
    • , Bridget S. Green
    • , Klaas Hartmann
    • , Peter H. Tyedmers
    •  & Reg A. Watson
  • Article |

    Nations are currently pursuing efforts to constrain anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C. In such a world, model projections suggest the Arctic will be ice-free every one in forty years, compared to one in every five under stabilized 2 °C warming.

    • Michael Sigmond
    • , John C. Fyfe
    •  & Neil C. Swart
  • Article |

    Marine ecosystems and their stored carbon are threatened by warming and marine heatwaves. During a 2010–2011 heatwave, around a third of a Western Australian seagrass ecosystem suffered damage, potentially releasing 2–9 Tg CO2 in the following years.

    • A. Arias-Ortiz
    • , O. Serrano
    • , P. Masqué
    • , P. S. Lavery
    • , U. Mueller
    • , G. A. Kendrick
    • , M. Rozaimi
    • , A. Esteban
    • , J. W. Fourqurean
    • , N. Marbà
    • , M. A. Mateo
    • , K. Murray
    • , M. J. Rule
    •  & C. M. Duarte
  • Article |

    Scenarios that constrain end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m–2, and thus global mean temperature increases to below 1.5 °C, are explored. Effective scenarios reduce energy use, deploy CO2 removal measures, and shift to non-emitting energy sources.

    • Joeri Rogelj
    • , Alexander Popp
    • , Katherine V. Calvin
    • , Gunnar Luderer
    • , Johannes Emmerling
    • , David Gernaat
    • , Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Jessica Strefler
    • , Tomoko Hasegawa
    • , Giacomo Marangoni
    • , Volker Krey
    • , Elmar Kriegler
    • , Keywan Riahi
    • , Detlef P. van Vuuren
    • , Jonathan Doelman
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Jae Edmonds
    • , Oliver Fricko
    • , Mathijs Harmsen
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Florian Humpenöder
    • , Elke Stehfest
    •  & Massimo Tavoni
  • Article |

    Ecological niche modelling of king penguins in the Southern Ocean, validated with population genomics and palaeodemography data, is used to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia under climate change.

    • Robin Cristofari
    • , Xiaoming Liu
    • , Francesco Bonadonna
    • , Yves Cherel
    • , Pierre Pistorius
    • , Yvon Le Maho
    • , Virginie Raybaud
    • , Nils Christian Stenseth
    • , Céline Le Bohec
    •  & Emiliano Trucchi
  • Article |

    Large-scale sea-level rise is primarily dominated by thermal expansion and ice melt. However, wave processes are found to significantly influence local sea-level trends at the coast, amplifying or reducing steric and eustatic contributions.

    • Angélique Melet
    • , Benoit Meyssignac
    • , Rafael Almar
    •  & Gonéri Le Cozannet
  • Article |

    In comparison to conventional bonds, green bonds have been penalized on the municipal market. However, in recent years the credit quality of green bonds has improved, and they now represent an increasingly feasible option to unlock climate finance.

    • Andreas Karpf
    •  & Antoine Mandel
  • Article |

    A spatially extensive survey of lake CH4 and CO2 emissions in Arctic Alaska shows the source material to be primarily relatively young organic matter (up to about 3,500 years old). Contributions from ancient C sources were twice as large in fine textured sediments.

    • Clayton D. Elder
    • , Xiaomei Xu
    • , Jennifer Walker
    • , Jordan L. Schnell
    • , Kenneth M. Hinkel
    • , Amy Townsend-Small
    • , Christopher D. Arp
    • , John W. Pohlman
    • , Benjamin V. Gaglioti
    •  & Claudia I. Czimczik
  • Article |

    Human behaviour is an important driver of emissions. A system-dynamics model that couples a psychological model of behaviour with a model of emissions and climate change shows that behaviour can influence global temperature in the year 2100 by up to 1.5 °C.

    • Brian Beckage
    • , Louis J. Gross
    • , Katherine Lacasse
    • , Eric Carr
    • , Sara S. Metcalf
    • , Jonathan M. Winter
    • , Peter D. Howe
    • , Nina Fefferman
    • , Travis Franck
    • , Asim Zia
    • , Ann Kinzig
    •  & Forrest M. Hoffman