Articles

Existing global economic damage assessments only focus on the impacts induced by annual temperature changes. Including variability and extremes of temperature and precipitation in climate damage projections raises global gross domestic product losses and exacerbates global disparities of economic damage.

The 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) in Copenhagen marked an important step in global climate action with parties submitting 2020 mitigation targets. However, this retrospective study shows that many countries either have failed to meet their targets or have reduced their emissions through carbon leakage.

The authors link intensification of cold upwelling in two western boundary currents to the observed death of marine organisms, and upwelling avoidance behaviour in bull sharks. They raise concerns of increased risk of cold-mortality events for climate migrants at their poleward distribution limits.

The authors use individual-based models to assess the contribution of frugivore-mediated seed dispersal to forest restoration. They show that the movement of large birds—which disperse seeds with higher carbon storage potential—is limited in landscapes with low forest cover (<40%).

The degree to which changes in marine organisms due to warming can influence tropical cyclones is not well known. Here the authors show that changing chlorophyll patterns can lead to more landfalling tropical cyclones in East Asia.

Hydrological sensitivity describes how much precipitation changes for a given warming. Here, the authors show that the hydrological sensitivity differs between the three tropical ocean basins, which influences land rainfall changes across the tropical and mid-latitude regions.

The authors use resurrected strains of a diatom species to compare temperature optima, cell size and gene expression across 60 years. Modern samples have a 1 °C higher temperature optima and probably support increased nutrient uptake, highlighting the adaptation potential of diatoms to global change.

Using a global meta-analysis approach, the authors show that elevated CO₂ alone can increase primary productivity and leaf C/N ratio and stimulate nitrogen fixation and nitrogen use efficiency. They project increasing carbon sink and decreasing reactive nitrogen loss under climate change.

As the financial system is increasingly important in catalysing the green transition, it is critical to assess the impediments it may face. This study shows that existing financial regulations may impair the shift of financial resources from high-carbon to low-carbon assets.

Rapid population ageing is challenging for climate adaptation. Considering ageing demographics and green infrastructure development in 26,885 Southeast Asian communities, the authors find a reduction in green space in ageing communities, especially in socio-economically disadvantaged areas, with implications for vulnerability.

Countries use corporate tax cuts to attract foreign investment, which reshapes patterns of global production. This research shows that such competition will lead to higher carbon emissions and shift them to developing countries, while a global minimum tax could help alleviate these problems.

The coastal ocean is a dynamic environment, and CO₂ uptake is increasing faster than in the open ocean. Incorporating coastal processes into a global model shows that biological responses to climate-induced circulation changes and riverine nutrient inputs are key to the enhanced uptake.

How the climate system changes under negative emissions is not well known. Here the authors show that the mid-latitude storm tracks change in an asymmetric way, leading to stronger Northern Hemisphere and weaker Southern Hemisphere storm tracks after recovery to present-day CO₂ concentrations.

Grazing has been shown to have diverse effects on soil carbon, with local variation. This study assesses carbon changes related to grazing globally and finds that, although grazing has reduced soil carbon stocks, managing intensity could increase carbon uptake in both soils and vegetation.

It is important to detect human influence on the climate, but natural variability can hide signals of change. Here the authors show the anthropogenic signal has emerged for sea surface temperature seasonality, primarily driven by greenhouse gas increases, and with geographical differences in change.

How groundwater recharge changes with global warming is not well constrained. Here, the authors use an empirical relationship to show that groundwater recharge is more sensitive to aridity changes than expected, implying a strong response of water resources to climate change.

The authors develop a biophysical model to understand the impacts of tree loss and climate change on the activity patterns and population trends of a diurnal ectotherm (lizard). They show that deforestation can reverse the positive effects of climate change and even accelerate population declines.

Increasing exposure to climate hazards under climate change will disproportionately impact poor communities. This study shows that disruptions to infrastructure service threaten progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals in coastal Bangladesh, but impacts can be mediated through adaptation.

The authors use stomach contents from six fish species sampled for 12 years to show that warming shifts foraging behaviour to favour consumption of less energetically rewarding prey. Using food web models, they show that this flexible foraging could lead to reduced community biodiversity.

City fiscal and budgetary decisions play an essential role in the success of urban climate action. Using US cities as a case study, this Article reveals the interrelationship between urban climate finance, action and justice, as well as promising pathways to transform municipal finance practices.