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There are discernible differences in climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. The extent of countries' near-term mitigation ambition will determine the success of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal.
Large growth in East Asia's sea-borne trade has increased premature deaths and atmospheric warming in the region. New legislation could reduce these impacts in areas around China, but joint efforts are needed for region-wide benefits.
Malaria risk in West Africa is expected to fall (western region) or remain the same (eastern region) in response to climate change over the twenty-first century. This is primarily due to extreme temperature conditions projected under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
Analysis of over 18,000 vessels shows that the CO2 emissions from shipping in East Asia accounted for 16% of global shipping emissions in 2013 (compared to 4–7% in 2002–2005), and account for 14,500–37,500 premature deaths per year.
The importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been hotly debated. Research based on ten years of field observations and a model that simulates village-scale transmission for West Africa suggests that we should not be overly concerned.
In 2014–2015 the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced a strong marine heatwave. This study shows teleconnections to the tropical Pacific and the weak El Niño were key sources in the atmospheric forcing and persistence of the event.
Mortality rates based on data representing 400 million people in 200 European regions show countries other than the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium remain exposed to increased mortality due to winter temperature fluctuations.
The Sahel has suffered through severe droughts but recent years have seen increased rainfall. Now research suggests warming of the Mediterranean Sea surface may dictate future rainfall in the region.
Recent observations of Earth's energy budget indicate low climate sensitivity. Research now shows that these estimates should be revised upward, resolving an apparent mismatch with climate models and implying a warmer future.
Energy budget and climate model estimates of transient climate response match when model output is processed in the same manner as an observational record. Removal of observational sampling biases infers an estimate of 1.66 °C, consistent with model estimates.
Historically the sea surface temperature of the tropical oceans has influenced Sahel rainfall. This study shows that increased surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea have driven recent rainfall increases.
The North America winter cooling trend in the early 2000s can be explained by decadal climate signals. For the northwest, fluctuations in the remote tropical Pacific were responsible, whereas for central North America it was mid-latitude circulation changes.
Observed northern extratropical land greening is consistent with anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but not with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability.