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  • It is now possible to model the climate system at the kilometre scale, but more work and resources are needed to harvest the full potential of these models to resolve long-standing model biases and enable new applications of climate models.

  • Sharp fronts and eddies that are ubiquitous in the world ocean, as well as features such as shelf seas and under-ice-shelf cavities, are not captured in climate projections. Such small-scale processes can play a key role in how the large-scale ocean and cryosphere evolve under climate change, posing a challenge to climate models.

    • Helene Hewitt
    • Baylor Fox-Kemper
    • Daniel Klocke
  • Current global climate models struggle to represent precipitation and related extreme events, with serious implications for the physical evidence base to support climate actions. A leap to kilometre-scale models could overcome this shortcoming but requires collaboration on an unprecedented scale.

    • Julia Slingo
    • Paul Bates
    • Georg Teutsch
  • Ice that melts at high elevation often refreezes and, therefore, does not contribute to the shrinking of ice sheets. Here, the authors show that the elevation at which melting ice starts to contribute to runoff has increased over recent years in Greenland, expanding the runoff area by 29%.

    • Andrew J. Tedstone
    • Horst Machguth
  • Many companies purchase renewable energy certificates to report reduced emissions, but this may not lead to actual emission reductions. We need emission accounting that is both accurate and that incentivizes companies to make impactful contributions to decarbonizing electricity grids.

    • Anders Bjørn
    • Shannon M. Lloyd
    • H. Damon Matthews
    Policy Brief
  • A study involving over 12,000 observations shows that high-quality cropland soils not only lead to a higher yield, but also to a smaller yield reduction and variability in response to warmer climates. Appropriate efforts to improve soil quality may reduce the decline in crop production induced by climate change in China by 20%.

    Research Briefing
  • Food demand is increasing, while climate change is impacting the magnitude and stability of crop yields. High-quality soils are able to buffer the negative impacts of climate change and lead to smaller yield reduction and higher yield stability, indicating a potential adaptation strategy.

    • Lei Qiao
    • Xuhui Wang
    • Mingsheng Fan
  • Companies commonly use renewable energy certificates to report progress towards emission reduction targets. However, this use of certificates is unlikely to result in actual emission reductions, which undermines the credibility of corporate emission reduction claims and their alignment with the Paris Agreement goal.

    • Anders Bjørn
    • Shannon M. Lloyd
    • H. Damon Matthews
  • The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping our society in many ways, and climate change is no exception. This Perspective presents a framework to assess how AI affects GHG emissions and proposes approaches to align the technology with climate change mitigation.

    • Lynn H. Kaack
    • Priya L. Donti
    • David Rolnick
    • Jasper Franke
    Research Highlight
  • Following a complete cessation of anthropogenic emissions, global warming will continue before cooling. We modelled this zero-emissions scenario in the context of realistic emissions pathways and revealed an existing commitment to temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming thresholds half a decade before these targets would have otherwise been reached.

    Research Briefing
  • Changes to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have substantial regional impacts but more remote effects are unclear. Here, model analysis shows that AMOC collapse causes excess heat to accumulate in the tropical south Atlantic Ocean, resulting in atmospheric changes globally.

    • Bryam Orihuela-Pinto
    • Matthew H. England
    • Andréa S. Taschetto