Research associate / PhD candidate (f/m/d) Statistical postprocessing of ensemble weather predictions - Statistical postprocessing of ensemble weather predictions

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

Karlsruhe, Germany

Work group:

Institute of Stochastics (STOCH)

Area of research:

Scientific / postdoctoral posts

Job description:

Our ability to predict the weather saves our societies billions of Euros annually and protects human life and property. Exponentially increasing computing power and new observations have led to continuous improvements in forecast quality, but nonetheless forecasts are sometimes strikingly poor. The Collaborative Research Center "Waves to Weather" (W2W, addresses the challenge of identifying the limits of predictability and producing the best forecasts that are physically possible. W2W brings together broad interdisciplinary scientific expertise in atmospheric sciences, mathematics and computer science from institutions at six research sites.

Modern weather forecasts are based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. These ensemble predictions often exhibit systematic errors that require correction via statistical postprocessing. The project “C5: Dynamical feature-based ensemble postprocessing of wind gusts within European winter storms” within W2W aims to better understand and predict strong gusts associated with storms, one of the most significant natural hazards over central Europe.

In close collaboration with atmospheric scientists, this project will focus on distributional regression models for statistical postprocessing of individual dynamical features of storms. Characteristic subregions such as cold, warm and sting jets will be objectively identified, and forecast evaluation and ensemble postprocessing will be conducted separately. Based on modern machine learning methods and customized similarity-based estimation techniques, statistical models ensuring physical consistency will be developed.

You must have a Master's degree in mathematics (with specialization in statistics/stochastics) or statistics. The ideal candidate (f/m/d) shows a strong interest in statistical modeling, computational statistics and machine learning. Programming skills in R or Python are required, and fluency in written and spoken English is a prerequisite. We are looking for a highly motivated candidate (f/m/d) with a strong commitment to research ethics and teamwork. Good communicative skills are mandatory due to the interdisciplinary structure of the project.


Salary category 13, depending on the fulfillment of professional and personal requirements.

Contract duration

limited to four years

Application up to


Contact person in line-management

For further information, please contact Dr. Sebastian Lerch, phone +49 6221/533-252 or Prof. Dr. Peter Knippertz, phone +49 721/608-43565.

Please apply via recruiter’s website.

Quote Reference: 2982