• Letter |

    An analysis of more than 30,000 national polls from 351 general elections in 45 countries over the period between 1942 and 2017 shows that, contrary to popular belief, election polling misses have not become more prevalent.

    • Will Jennings
    •  & Christopher Wlezien
  • Letter |

    Galesic et al. show that election poll questions that ask participants about the voting intentions of their social contacts, in addition to their own intentions, improve predictions of voting in the 2016 US and 2017 French presidential elections.

    • M. Galesic
    • , W. Bruine de Bruin
    • , M. Dumas
    • , A. Kapteyn
    • , J. E. Darling
    •  & E. Meijer
  • Letter |

    Using fMRI data from healthy controls, the authors construct probabilistic maps of the multiple-demand and language-selective regions in the brain to classify patient lesions. They find that only multiple-demand-weighted lesion volumes predict deficits in fluid intelligence.

    • Alexandra Woolgar
    • , John Duncan
    • , Facundo Manes
    •  & Evelina Fedorenko
  • Letter |

    The authors exploit a 1972 policy that increased the minimum school leaving age to investigate the causal effects of staying in school on health. Using a large dataset, they find that remaining in school reduces the risk of diabetes and mortality.

    • Neil M. Davies
    • , Matt Dickson
    • , George Davey Smith
    • , Gerard J. van den Berg
    •  & Frank Windmeijer
  • Letter |

    The collective wisdom of crowds often provides better answers to problems than individual judgements. Here, a large experiment that split a crowd into many small deliberative groups produced better estimates than the average of all answers in the crowd.

    • Joaquin Navajas
    • , Tamara Niella
    • , Gerry Garbulsky
    • , Bahador Bahrami
    •  & Mariano Sigman
  • Letter |

    Field experiments and network data show that the witchcraft label ‘zhu’ influences labour-sharing and intermarriage in a large network of southwest Chinese villages. Zhu is not an indicator of pro-sociality, but may function to spite or damage rivals.

    • Ruth Mace
    • , Matthew G. Thomas
    • , Jiajia Wu
    • , QiaoQiao He
    • , Ting Ji
    •  & Yi Tao
  • Letter |

    Jebb et al. use data from the Gallup World Poll to show that happiness does not rise indefinitely with income: globally, income satiation occurs at US$95,000 for life evaluation and US$60,000 to US$75,000 for emotional well-being.

    • Andrew T. Jebb
    • , Louis Tay
    • , Ed Diener
    •  & Shigehiro Oishi
  • Letter |

    The authors use a computational data-driven approach to study the determinants of conscious processing of human faces. They show that the speed at which a face reaches conscious awareness depends on its perceived power or dominance.

    • Yaniv Abir
    • , Asael Y. Sklar
    • , Ron Dotsch
    • , Alexander Todorov
    •  & Ran R. Hassin
  • Letter |

    The authors use large, real-world guessing competition datasets to test whether accuracy can be improved by aggregating repeated estimates by the same individual. They find that estimates do improve, but substantially less than with between-person aggregation.

    • Dennie van Dolder
    •  & Martijn J. van den Assem
  • Letter |

    Two surveys of a large cohort of US parents find that concerns about purity and liberty are strongly associated with vaccine hesitancy. This suggests that vaccination campaigns may be more effective by targeting these moral values.

    • Avnika B. Amin
    • , Robert A. Bednarczyk
    • , Cara E. Ray
    • , Kala J. Melchiori
    • , Jesse Graham
    • , Jeffrey R. Huntsinger
    •  & Saad B. Omer
  • Letter |

    Nook et al. show that emotion concept representations develop from a monodimensional focus on positive versus negative valence in childhood to multidimensional organization in adulthood. This expansion is facilitated by increasing verbal knowledge.

    • Erik C. Nook
    • , Stephanie F. Sasse
    • , Hilary K. Lambert
    • , Katie A. McLaughlin
    •  & Leah H. Somerville
  • Letter |

    Personality traits differ across geographical regions, suggesting a role for environmental factors. Wei, Lu, and colleagues show an association between regional ambient temperature and personality in two large studies conducted in China and the United States.

    • Wenqi Wei
    • , Jackson G. Lu
    • , Adam D. Galinsky
    • , Han Wu
    • , Samuel D. Gosling
    • , Peter J. Rentfrow
    • , Wenjie Yuan
    • , Qi Zhang
    • , Yongyu Guo
    • , Ming Zhang
    • , Wenjing Gui
    • , Xiao-Yi Guo
    • , Jeff Potter
    • , Jian Wang
    • , Bingtan Li
    • , Xiaojie Li
    • , Yang-Mei Han
    • , Meizhen Lv
    • , Xiang-Qing Guo
    • , Yera Choe
    • , Weipeng Lin
    • , Kun Yu
    • , Qiyu Bai
    • , Zhe Shang
    • , Ying Han
    •  & Lei Wang
  • Letter |

    Cao et al. demonstrate that people systematically rely on social base rates when making judgements about individuals, even when these base rates are statistically irrelevant. The authors show that multiple remedies are required to eliminate this bias of base rate intrusion.

    • Jack Cao
    • , Max Kleiman-Weiner
    •  & Mahzarin R. Banaji
  • Letter |

    Using the 2014 New York Police Department slowdown as a natural experiment, the authors show that civilian complaints of major crime decreased during and after reductions in proactive policing, which challenges existing research on the topic.

    • Christopher M. Sullivan
    •  & Zachary P. O’Keeffe
  • Letter |

    There are striking similarities among creole languages. Blasi et al. show that these similarities can in fact be explained by the same processes as for non-creole languages, the difference being that creoles have more than one language in their ancestry.

    • Damián E. Blasi
    • , Susanne Maria Michaelis
    •  & Martin Haspelmath
  • Letter |

    Gächter et al. use experiments and simulations to show that low levels of cooperation (the ‘tragedy of the commons’) are systematically more likely in maintaining a public good than in providing a new one, even under identical incentives.

    • Simon Gächter
    • , Felix Kölle
    •  & Simone Quercia
  • Letter |

    Global groundwater resources are threatened by over-extraction. An agent-based model is presented, incorporating cooperative and collective action theory that reveals tipping points in social attitudes toward conservation in three at-risk regions.

    • Juan Carlos Castilla-Rho
    • , Rodrigo Rojas
    • , Martin S. Andersen
    • , Cameron Holley
    •  & Gregoire Mariethoz