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The yield gap is the difference between the potential yield of a crop under management that minimizes yield losses from biotic and abiotic stresses and the actual farm yields under dominant management practices and soil conditions. A wheat simulation model was used at 53 study sites across the world under optimum local wheat cultivar management practices to estimate potential yield (globally, 6 dry matter tonne per hectare (DM t ha–1)), and the difference between the current mean global wheat yield (3 DM t ha–1) indicates a global yield gap of 50% due to sub-optimal crop and soil conditions.
Genetic yield potential represents the yield that could be achieved in target environments through genetic improvements compared with yields from current local cultivars. Eight wheat traits relating to canopy structure, phenology, root water uptake and drought tolerance that are considered important for yield improvement, large available genetic variation, high heritability and breeder friendliness were optimized in designed wheat ideotypes based on current cultivars. The global genetic yield gap is estimated to be 51%, ranging from 30% (lowest, New Zealand) to 70% (highest, Australia and Kazakhstan). The genetic yield gap quantifies opportunity for increasing productivity through genetic improvement.
The Ukraine–Russia war will impact global food security over months if not years. In the wake of COVID-19 and in the face of increasing climate change, we propose responses to a multi-layered global food crisis that mitigate near-term food security risks, stabilize wheat supplies and transition towards long-term agri-food system resilience.
Nutrient security in the United Kingdom appears to be stable and secure, but it is unclear whether this will continue to be the case if dietary patterns change, or if new trade arrangements emerge.
In silico cultivar selection estimates that the global potential wheat yield may be doubled. However, there remain many challenges in leveraging the yield potential into practice.
Advancing wheat sowing dates has a large benefit to crop yields in the Eastern Ganges Plain of India. The contribution of better crop calendar management to yield gains should be studied more extensively around the world, especially in underperforming regions.
Tillage on slopes thins the soil and reduces crop yields. Increased yields in regions where soil is deposited partially compensate for this reduction in crop yields at regional scales. However, continued increases in tillage intensity and climate-change-induced increases in dry spells may lead to reduced crop yields.
The role of social resilience in mitigating hunger related to climate change is explored in North Korea, South Korea and China, regions with similar climatic conditions but varying levels of economic development.
Micronutrient availability is key to future global food security. A macroanalysis reveals how sources of micronutrients and countries of origin have varied in the United Kingdom over the six decades before Brexit. Through scenario analysis, the effects of trade and dietary choices on nutrient supply and demand are also explored.
Shifting from cattle farming to camels and goats could deliver more sustainable milk production under climate-change-induced heat stress and resource scarcity in the drylands of north sub-Saharan Africa.
The wheat genetic yield gap globally ranges from 30% to 70%, indicating current wheat yields are substantially below achievable genetic yield potentials. There is potential to close the existing genetic yield gap with crop genetic improvement and adaption.
Current cropping calendar management erodes wheat yield potential in the rice–wheat cropping system of eastern India. By combining field and household survey data, time series of remotely sensed information and dynamic crop simulations, this study shows that exploitable wheat yield gaps could increase by 69% through planting date adjustments that enhance climate resilience.