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Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming

Nature Geoscience volume 6, pages 999–1007 (2013)Cite this article

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Abstract

Natural modes of variability centred in the tropics, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are a significant source of interannual climate variability across the globe. Future climate warming could alter these modes of variability. For example, with the warming projected for the end of the twenty-first century, the mean climate of the tropical Indian Ocean is expected to change considerably. These changes have the potential to affect the Indian Ocean Dipole, currently characterized by an alternation of anomalous cooling in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and warming in the west in a positive dipole event, and the reverse pattern for negative events. The amplitude of positive events is generally greater than that of negative events. Mean climate warming in austral spring is expected to lead to stronger easterly winds just south of the Equator, faster warming of sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean compared with the eastern basin, and a shoaling equatorial thermocline. The mean climate conditions that result from these changes more closely resemble a positive dipole state. However, defined relative to the mean state at any given time, the overall frequency of events is not projected to change — but we expect a reduction in the difference in amplitude between positive and negative dipole events.

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Figure 1: Observed and projected changes in IOD variability.
Figure 2: Historical austral spring mean climate and positive IOD conditions for the twentieth century, and future austral spring mean climate.
Figure 3: Projected changes in the IOD characteristics and associated ocean–atmosphere feedback strengths.
Figure 4: Projected changes in SST skewness of the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program, the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955600), the Goyder Research Institute, and the NFSC (41106010). M.C. was supported by the NERC SAPRISE project (NE/I022841/1). W.Y. was supported by the Chinese State Oceanic Administration Indian Ocean Climate Program.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

    Wenju Cai, Evan Weller & Tim Cowan

  2. Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Wenju Cai & Xiao-Tong Zheng

  3. Key Laboratory of Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shangdong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Xiao-Tong Zheng

  4. College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Harrison Building, Streatham Campus, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Mat Collins

  5. Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approaches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN, Paris, France

    Matthieu Lengaigne

  6. First Institute of Oceanology, State Ocean Administration, Qingdao, China

    Weidong Yu

  7. Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan

    Toshio Yamagata

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Cai, W., Zheng, XT., Weller, E. et al. Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming. Nature Geosci 6, 999–1007 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2009

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