Focus 26 January 2021

Climate change impacts

Climate change not only affects environmental systems, but also alters the living conditions for many humans dramatically. On this page, we show articles that allow us to better understand the consequences of human emissions. Given the multitude of impacts, this includes research from all disciplines, in particular ecology, economics, social sciences, climatology and life science, but also multidisciplinary works.

Featured articles

East Antarctic warming forced by ice loss during the Last Interglacial

Climate simulations of the Last Interglacial show that Antarctic ice loss induces warming of East Antarctica. Meltwater equivalent to the ice loss induces warming of the subsurface. Both effects can further enhance Antarctic ice sheet deterioration
- David K. Hutchinson
- Laurie Menviel
- Andrew McC. Hogg
ArticleOpen Access3 Feb 2024 Nature Communications
Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years

Speleothems from the Savanna region in Brazil documents the occurrence of an unprecedented long-term drought driven by anthropogenic forcing. Staring in the 1970´s the current drought is the most severe that has struck the region in the past 700 years.
- Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis
- Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque
- Valdir Felipe Novello
ArticleOpen Access26 Feb 2024 Nature Communications
Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population

The authors disentangle uncertainty in rainfall projections, revealing regions where multiple global climate models agree on future drying and wetting patterns with implications for one to two thirds of the world’s population.
- Ralph Trancoso
- Jozef Syktus
- Robin Chadwick
ArticleOpen Access11 Jan 2024 Nature Communications
Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- Xun Li
- Lei Zhou
ArticleOpen Access2 Jan 2024 Nature Communications
Potential drivers of the recent large Antarctic ozone holes

The record-breaking ozone holes of recent years contribute to a steady decline of mid-spring ozone in the Antarctic, contrary to signs of early-spring recovery. Changes in descending air at the core of the ozone hole might be the driver.
- Hannah E. Kessenich
- Annika Seppälä
- Craig J. Rodger
ArticleOpen Access21 Nov 2023 Nature Communications
Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming

This study shows that lake heating in response to atmospheric warming slows as surface waters warm and evaporate. Lake sensitivity to warming air is higher in clear, cold, undisturbed, or elevated lakes, but declines when land-use practices fertilize basins.
- Jian Zhou
- Peter R. Leavitt
- Boqiang Qin
ArticleOpen Access16 Oct 2023 Nature Communications
Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters

By analyzing historical and Argo observations, the authors find that the warming of mode and intermediate water layers drives most of the global upper 2000 m ocean warming, highlighting the outsized heat uptake by regional water masses in both hemispheres.
- Zhi Li
- Matthew H. England
- Sjoerd Groeskamp
ArticleOpen Access28 Oct 2023 Nature Communications
Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models.
- Robert Vautard
- Julien Cattiaux
- Pascal Yiou
ArticleOpen Access26 Oct 2023 Nature Communications
Regionally sourced bioaerosols drive high-temperature ice nucleating particles in the Arctic

Primary bioaerosols, important for clouds and climate, were measured at an Arctic mountain site and traced to regional sources. Their seasonality was observed to peak in summer, where they significantly contribute to high-temperature ice nucleating particles.
- Gabriel Pereira Freitas
- Kouji Adachi
- Paul Zieger
ArticleOpen Access28 Sep 2023 Nature Communications
Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable

This study examines the effect of four marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predators, revealing a wide-array of predator responses both among and within heatwaves. Predator responses were highly predictable, demonstrating capacity for early warning systems of heatwave impacts, similar to weather forecasts.
- Heather Welch
- Matthew S. Savoca
- Elliott L. Hazen
ArticleOpen Access5 Sep 2023 Nature Communications
Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching mortality events threaten the persistence of coral communities on tropical reefs. This study demonstrates that the thermal tolerance of coral communities in Palau has likely increased since the late 1980s. Such ecological resilience could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.
- Liam Lachs
- Simon D. Donner
- James R. Guest
ArticleOpen Access22 Aug 2023 Nature Communications
Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

The risk of heat-mortality is increasing sharply. The authors report that heat-mortality levels of a 1-in-100-year summer in the climate of 2000 can be expected once every ten to twenty years in the current climate and at least once in five years with 2 °C of global warming.
- Samuel Lüthi
- Christopher Fairless
- Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
ArticleOpen Access24 Aug 2023 Nature Communications
Effects of drought and recovery on soil volatile organic compound fluxes in an experimental rainforest

Pugliese et al., show that severe drought and rewetting have a major impact on the capacity of rainforest soil to consume and emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs), affecting the atmospheric VOC budget and thereby atmospheric chemistry and climate.
- Giovanni Pugliese
- Johannes Ingrisch
- Jonathan Williams
ArticleOpen Access21 Aug 2023 Nature Communications
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast

AMOC-induced heat advection controls ocean temperature in the subtropical North Atlantic, drives year-to-year changes of basin-wide and coastal sea level, and accounts for 30-50% of flood days along the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico coasts in 2015-2020.
- Denis L. Volkov
- Kate Zhang
- Dimitris Menemenlis
ArticleOpen Access22 Aug 2023 Nature Communications
Comparative genomic analyses reveal the genetic basis of the yellow-seed trait in Brassica napus

Yellow-seed trait is preferred in rapeseed breeding as it can greatly improve seed oil yield and quality. Here, the authors assemble the genome of two rapeseed lines with yellow-seed and black-seed phenotypes, and clone an R2R3-MYB-type transcription factor encoding gene as a key regulator of seed color.
- Cunmin Qu
- Meichen Zhu
- Jiana Li
ArticleOpen Access25 Aug 2023 Nature Communications
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
- Peter Ditlevsen
- Susanne Ditlevsen
ArticleOpen Access25 Jul 2023 Nature Communications
Satellite record reveals 1960s acceleration of Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica

Historical velocity maps reveal over five decade-long acceleration and high-level discharge in Totten Glacier, East Antarctica, from 1963-2018, induced by warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water.
- Rongxing Li
- Yuan Cheng
- Wenkai Ye
ArticleOpen Access10 Jul 2023 Nature Communications
Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe

Storm severity indices of European winter storms in climate models show future increased storm losses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population.
- Alexander S. Little
- Matthew D. K. Priestley
- Jennifer L. Catto
ArticleOpen Access22 Jul 2023 Nature Communications
Oxygen availability and body mass modulate ectotherm responses to ocean warming

This study presents an absolute metabolic index that quantifies how ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and organismal mass interact to constrain the oxygen budget an organism can use to fuel aerobic metabolism. The index is calibrated with physiological measurements from purple sea urchin and red abalone and the authors test if the index can delimit the distribution of these two species.
- Murray I. Duncan
- Fiorenza Micheli
- Erik A. Sperling
ArticleOpen Access27 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across crop-producing regions are major threats to global food security. A strongly meandering jet can trigger these, however, climate and crop models underestimate effects with consequences for climate risk assessments.
- Kai Kornhuber
- Corey Lesk
- Radley M. Horton
ArticleOpen Access4 Jul 2023 Nature Communications
Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

This study shows that climate change will alter the sea surface temperature - precipitation relationships and our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100.
- Phong V. V. Le
- James T. Randerson
- Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
ArticleOpen Access28 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover

A shift in summer atmospheric circulation has accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet melt. The authors show that diminished North American snow cover supports these conditions by inducing a stationary Rossby wave that favors high pressure over Greenland.
- Jonathon R. Preece
- Thomas L. Mote
- Gabriel J. Kooperman
ArticleOpen Access23 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Reassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests

Tree growth in boreal forests is generally predicted to increase under warming. Here, the authors demonstrate a method to analyze physiologically informed temperature series of tree-ring data, finding potentially overlooked growth-temperature responses and projecting increasing risks of warming to boreal larch forests.
- Wenqing Li
- Rubén D. Manzanedo
- Neil Pederson
ArticleOpen Access8 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Demonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk

This paper presents a method for quantifying the benefits of beaches in reducing storm and long-term coastal flood risk. This method can contribute to cost-effective decision-making on climate change adaptation in many of the world’s coasts.
- Alexandra Toimil
- Iñigo J. Losada
- Gonéri Le Cozannet
ArticleOpen Access12 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Trajectories of freshwater microbial genomics and greenhouse gas saturation upon glacial retreat

Diverse microbial trajectories in carbon and nitrogen cycle processes represent a positive feedback loop of deglaciation on climate warming.
- Jing Wei
- Laurent Fontaine
- Alexander Eiler
ArticleOpen Access3 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
The effectiveness of global protected areas for climate change mitigation

Protected areas are important for climate change mitigation. Here, the authors use satellite data and statistical matching to show that terrestrial protected areas have higher C stocks than non-protected areas, roughly equivalent to one year of annual global fossil fuel emissions.
- L. Duncanson
- M. Liang
- A. Zvoleff
ArticleOpen Access1 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate

In this study, the authors use eddy-resolving climate model simulations and project an almost linear increase of extreme atmospheric rivers with global warming and a doubling of their occurrence under a high emission scenario.
- Shuyu Wang
- Xiaohui Ma
- Bolan Gan
ArticleOpen Access3 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Patterns in soil microbial diversity across Europe

“Factors influencing soil microbiota functioning remain understudied. Here, the authors describe bacterial and fungal diversity across Europe and along a gradient of land-use perturbation, observing that the occurrence of pathogens, symbionts and saprotrophs varied among cropland, woodland and grassland.”
- Maëva Labouyrie
- Cristiano Ballabio
- Alberto Orgiazzi
ArticleOpen Access8 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario

A dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in all months. By scaling climate models’ sea ice response to best match observed trends, an ice-free Arctic in September is projected under all scenarios.
- Yeon-Hee Kim
- Seung-Ki Min
- Elizaveta Malinina
ArticleOpen Access6 Jun 2023 Nature Communications
Quantifying the recarbonization of post-agricultural landscapes

Despite worldwide prevalence, post-agricultural landscapes remain one of the least constrained human-induced land carbon sinks. To appraise their role in rebuilding the planet’s natural carbon stocks through ecosystem restoration, we need to better understand their spatial and temporal legacies.
- Stephen M. Bell
- Samuel J. Raymond
- César Terrer
CommentOpen Access14 Apr 2023 Nature Communications
Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

This study shows that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be ~2.6 times higher by the end of the 21st century compared to 1979–2019, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between the two extremes.
- Xuezhi Tan
- Xinxin Wu
- Bingjun Liu
ArticleOpen Access18 May 2023 Nature Communications
Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

Adaptation policies can considerably influence the intensity and spatial patterns of sealevel rise-related migration, with managed retreat and setback zones leading to outmigration, while hard protection measures favor migration toward the coast.
- Lena Reimann
- Bryan Jones
- Athanasios T. Vafeidis
ArticleOpen Access6 May 2023 Nature Communications
The potential for coral reef restoration to mitigate coastal flooding as sea levels rise

The capacity of coral reefs to keep pace with sea-level rise is central to their ability to continue to provide shoreline protection to vulnerable coastal communities. Here, the study shows that whereas restoration has the potential to minimize climate-change impacts, doing nothing will amplify them.
- Lauren T. Toth
- Curt D. Storlazzi
- Richard B. Aronson
ArticleOpen Access21 Apr 2023 Nature Communications
The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves

The global risk of record-breaking heatwaves is assessed, with the most at-risk regions identified. It is shown that record-smashing events that currently appear implausible could happen anywhere as a result of climate change.
- Vikki Thompson
- Dann Mitchell
- Julia M. Slingo
ArticleOpen Access25 Apr 2023 Nature Communications
Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability

Sea level rise along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast has accelerated since 2010 due to changes in steric expansion and the ocean’s circulation. The acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and natural climate variability.
- Sönke Dangendorf
- Noah Hendricks
- Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
ArticleOpen Access10 Apr 2023 Nature Communications
High economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests

Tropical forest ecosystems supply ecosystem services of global importance. Here, the authors show that climate change reduces climate regulation and habitat services in Central American forests and results in high economic costs.
- Lukas Baumbach
- Thomas Hickler
- Marc Hanewinkel
ArticleOpen Access11 Apr 2023 Nature Communications
Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation

In contrast to the North Atlantic, the projected overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas increases throughout most of the 21st century in global climate model simulations. The Nordic Seas could therefore be a stabilizing factor in the future AMOC.
- Marius Årthun
- Helene Asbjørnsen
- Kjetil Våge
ArticleOpen Access12 Apr 2023 Nature Communications
U.S. West Coast droughts and heat waves exacerbate pollution inequality and can evade emission control policies

Heat waves and droughts increase air pollution from power plants in California, which disproportionately damages counties with a majority of people of color. Droughts cause chronic increases in pollution damages. Heat waves are responsible for the days with the highest damages.
- Amir Zeighami
- Jordan Kern
- August A. Bruno
ArticleOpen Access23 Mar 2023 Nature Communications
Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers

Extreme ice sheet melt events in northeast Greenland occur after intense water vapor transport into northwest Greenland by atmospheric rivers. Through the foehn effect, the air becomes warmer and drier as it descends the ice sheet slope.
- Kyle S. Mattingly
- Jenny V. Turton
- Thomas L. Mote
ArticleOpen Access29 Mar 2023 Nature Communications
Elevation-dependent intensification of fire danger in the western United States

Elevation-dependent warming trends have been previously identified, but its effect on fire danger is still unclear. Here the authors show that there has been widespread increases in fire danger across the mountainous western US from 1979 to 2020 with most acute trends at high-elevation regions above 3000 m.
- Mohammad Reza Alizadeh
- John T. Abatzoglou
- Mojtaba Sadegh
ArticleOpen Access30 Mar 2023 Nature Communications
Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America

The authors investigate marine heatwaves on the ocean bottom in the shallow waters surrounding North America. Relative to their surface counterparts, bottom marine heatwaves are often more intense, more persistent, and can occur independently.
- Dillon J. Amaya
- Michael G. Jacox
- Adam S. Phillips
ArticleOpen Access13 Mar 2023 Nature Communications
Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes

Climate projections at km-scale show that local hourly precipitation extremes in the UK become 4-times more frequent by 2070, while they do not intensify gradually with warming, but tend to cluster in time.
- Elizabeth J. Kendon
- Erich M. Fischer
- Chris J. Short
ArticleOpen Access7 Mar 2023 Nature Communications
Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Coastal connectivity between ecosystems increases with sea level rise but fails to maintain landscape carbon storage and marsh extent at extreme rates of sea level rise.
- Kendall Valentine
- Ellen R. Herbert
- Matthew L. Kirwan
ArticleOpen Access13 Mar 2023 Nature Communications
Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels

This study discovered non-monotonic variations in river flows for seven rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C, which then resulted in different consequences for riparian countries
- Tong Cui
- Yukun Li
- Fuqiang Tian
ArticleOpen Access1 Mar 2023 Nature Communications
Soil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO₂

When soil moisture is within the transitional regime that is neither too dry nor too wet, its variation affects evaporation and thus climate. This study shows that, under global warming, more areas will experience a transitional regime.
- Hsin Hsu
- Paul A. Dirmeyer
ArticleOpen Access1 Mar 2023 Nature Communications
The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021

The 2021 unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave broke temperature records by extraordinary amounts. Impacts included hundreds of deaths, mass-mortalities of marine life, increased wildfires, reduced crop and fruit yields, and river flooding.
- Rachel H. White
- Sam Anderson
- Greg West
ArticleOpen Access9 Feb 2023 Nature Communications
Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model

Most global sea level projections ignore the active role of ice-sheet-climate coupling. Including this effect, a new modeling system simulates irreversible Antarctic ice-sheet loss and accelerating sea level rise for global mean temperatures >1.8oC.
- Jun-Young Park
- Fabian Schloesser
- Arjun Babu Nellikkattil
ArticleOpen Access14 Feb 2023 Nature Communications
Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities

Desert-dwelling species are adapted to high temperatures, but further warming may push them beyond their physiological limits. Here, the authors integrate biophysical models and species distributions to project physiological impacts of climate change on desert birds globally and identify potential refugia.
- Liang Ma
- Shannon R. Conradie
- David S. Wilcove
ArticleOpen Access13 Jan 2023 Nature Communications
Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

The authors link the frequency of convective storms in the Amazon basin to the density of large forest mortality events (windthrows) and project an increase in forest disturbance from these dynamics due to climate warming over this century.
- Yanlei Feng
- Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez
- Jeffrey Q. Chambers
ArticleOpen Access6 Jan 2023 Nature Communications
Hidden heatwaves and severe coral bleaching linked to mesoscale eddies and thermocline dynamics

Hidden marine heatwaves, associated with ocean eddies that modulate undersea internal waves, threaten coastal ecosystems by driving unexpected sub-surface heating and severe coral bleaching and mortality across depths.
- Alex S. J. Wyatt
- James J. Leichter
- Scott C. Burgess
ArticleOpen Access6 Jan 2023 Nature Communications
Global droughts connected by linkages between drought hubs

This study shows prominent synchronous co-evolution of drought events in drought hubs in sub-tropical regions, influenced by sea surface temperature patterns and teleconnections. Such simultaneous occurrence of droughts may have detrimental impacts.
- Somnath Mondal
- Ashok K. Mishra
- Benjamin Cook
ArticleOpen Access10 Jan 2023 Nature Communications

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