Focus 26 January 2021

Climate change impacts

Climate change not only affects environmental systems, but also alters the living conditions for many humans dramatically. On this page, we show articles that allow us to better understand the consequences of human emissions. Given the multitude of impacts, this includes research from all disciplines, in particular ecology, economics, social sciences, climatology and life science, but also multidisciplinary works.

Featured articles

Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate

The study found that long-duration heatwaves are much more likely to follow power-damaging tropical cyclones in the future RCP8.5 climate, with the impact of longer-than-5-day tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard increasing by a factor of 23 over the 21st century.
- Kairui Feng
- Min Ouyang
- Ning Lin
Article Open Access 30 Jul 2022 Nature Communications
Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Responses of agriculture and fisheries to climate change are interlinked, yet rarely studied together. Here, the authors analyse more than 3000 households from 5 tropical countries and forecast mid-century climate change impacts, finding that communities with higher fishery dependence and lower socioeconomic status communities face greater losses.
- Joshua E. Cinner
- Iain R. Caldwell
- Richard Pollnac
Article Open Access 5 Jul 2022 Nature Communications
Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals

Without targeted climate adaptation, impacts of climate change threaten achievement of all 169 SDG targets. Fuldauer et al. provide an actionable framework to assess these impacts and help systematically align national adaptation plans with the SDGs.
- Lena I. Fuldauer
- Scott Thacker
- Jim W. Hall
Article Open Access 23 Jun 2022 Nature Communications
Adjusting agricultural emissions for trade matters for climate change mitigation

Understanding emissions flow with trade matters for climate action. Trade-adjusted emission accounting would close the carbon loophole generated by trade for more effective climate action targeted at producers, consumers, and intermediary traders
- Adrian Foong
- Prajal Pradhan
- Jürgen P. Kropp
Article Open Access 9 Jun 2022 Nature Communications
Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation

A new study shows the latest climate models tend to overestimate future Afro-Asian monsoon rainfall and runoff due to present-day biases of warming patterns. By constraining biases, the rainfall increase is 70% of the raw projection.
- Ziming Chen
- Tianjun Zhou
- Liwei Zou
Article Open Access 10 May 2022 Nature Communications
Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup

New experiments suggest that the Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland is unlikely to recover once a breakup occurs in the future. If this is not unique to this ice shelf, continued ocean warming may lead to high discharge from polar ice sheets.
- Henning Åkesson
- Mathieu Morlighem
- Martin Jakobsson
Article Open Access 9 May 2022 Nature Communications
Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential adverse outcomes point to the need for health sector planning with Global South leadership.
- Colin J. Carlson
- Rita Colwell
- Christopher H. Trisos
Article Open Access 20 Apr 2022 Nature Communications
New seasonal pattern of pollution emerges from changing North American wildfires

Growing emissions from Pacific Northwest wildfires have increased atmospheric carbon monoxide in August, raising questions about potential health impacts as the seasonal pattern of air quality changes for large regions of North America.
- Rebecca R. Buchholz
- Mijeong Park
- Sheryl Magzamen
Article Open Access 19 Apr 2022 Nature Communications
Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Tree mortality is increasing due to droughts and other climate change-related stressors, but isolating climate signals for tree mortality is challenging. Here, the authors assemble a geo-referenced global database that quantifies how drought and hotter climate drive tree mortality events.
- William M. Hammond
- A. Park Williams
- Craig D. Allen
Article Open Access 5 Apr 2022 Nature Communications
Large interannual variability in supraglacial lakes around East Antarctica

Antarctic supraglacial lakes (SGLs) have been linked to ice-shelf collapse and the subsequent acceleration of inland ice flow, but observations of SGLs remain relatively scarce and their interannual variability is largely unknown. This new study shows that lake area and volume vary substantially from year-to-year around the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and between ice shelves.
- Jennifer F. Arthur
- Chris R. Stokes
- Vincent Verjans
Article Open Access 31 Mar 2022 Nature Communications
Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer

The Northern Hemisphere summer circulation in the midlatitudes has become more “meandering” over the past decades, but the cause of the change remains elusive. Here the authors reveal that the waiver trending pattern results from internal climate forcing associated with sea surface temperature low frequency variability over the tropical Eastern Pacific.
- Xiaoting Sun
- Qinghua Ding
- Yihui Ding
Article Open Access 11 Mar 2022 Nature Communications
Wildfires enhance phytoplankton production in tropical oceans

Wildfires are expected to increase in frequency and severity. Here the authors use geochemical paleo-reconstructions to show that over decadal timescales in Earth history wildfires are positively correlated with phytoplankton production off the coast of Australia.
- Dongyan Liu
- Chongran Zhou
- Yan Du
Article Open Access 15 Mar 2022 Nature Communications
Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions

A strong decrease or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would cool down the northern high latitudes. This study reveals the possibility that such cooling could be amplified under deliberate CO₂ removal from the atmosphere.
- Jörg Schwinger
- Ali Asaadi
- Hanna Lee
Article Open Access 1 Mar 2022 Nature Communications
Black carbon footprint of human presence in Antarctica

The snow surrounding research facilities and shore tourist-landing sites in Antarctica was found to be darker than elsewhere in the continent, which suggests that local emissions of black carbon are accelerating seasonal snowmelt in impacted regions.
- Raúl R. Cordero
- Edgardo Sepúlveda
- Gino Casassa
Article Open Access 22 Feb 2022 Nature Communications
Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030

Understanding benefits of carbon mitigation is an important impetus for governments to adopt more ambitious climate targets. Here, the authors show positive air quality and health co-benefits are possible if China’s CO₂ emissions peak before 2030.
- Rong Tang
- Jing Zhao
- Haikun Wang
Article Open Access 23 Feb 2022 Nature Communications
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

The degree to which Arctic sea ice decline influences the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is widely debated. Here, the authors use a coordinated multi-model experiment to show that Arctic sea ice loss causes a weakening of the mid-latitude westerly winds, but the effect is overall small.
- D. M. Smith
- R. Eade
- A. Walsh
Article Open Access 7 Feb 2022 Nature Communications
Consistent cooling benefits of silvopasture in the tropics

A new study shows that tropical silvopasture systems can provide significant cooling services for local communities, and identifies where these silvopasture systems can most effectively counteract global climate change to help communities adapt to warming.
- Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello
- Susan C. Cook-Patton
- Yuta J. Masuda
Article Open Access 4 Feb 2022 Nature Communications
The 2018 European heatwave led to stem dehydration but not to consistent growth reductions in forests

Forest dynamics are monitored at large scales with remote sensing, but individual tree data are necessary for ground-truthing and mechanistic insights. This study on high temporal resolution dendrometer data across Europe reveals that the 2018 heatwave affected tree physiology and growth in unexpected way.
- Roberto L. Salomón
- Richard L. Peters
- Kathy Steppe
Article Open Access 10 Jan 2022 Nature Communications
Regional trade agreement burdens global carbon emissions mitigation

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will come into force in January 2022. Here the authors quantify ex ante economic and environmental effects following RCEP tariff reductions.
- Kailan Tian
- Yu Zhang
- Shouyang Wang
Article Open Access 20 Jan 2022 Nature Communications
Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21^st century

Climate change does not only increase mean temperatures, but also the magnitude of year-to-year temperature variability. Here, the authors use large model ensembles to show that these changes can be statistically distinguished from the baseline variability in most regions of the world during the 21st century.
- Dirk Olonscheck
- Andrew P. Schurer
- Gabriele C. Hegerl
Article Open Access 13 Dec 2021 Nature Communications
Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

The reasons for concern framework are an effective visualisation of climate change related risks. Here, the authors propose a new framework by which different levels of uncertainty can be included into this aggregated assessment in order to ensure a transparent communication of risks.
- Luke J. Harrington
- Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Friederike E. L. Otto
Perspective Open Access 8 Dec 2021 Nature Communications
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected

The Arctic warms faster than other areas of the planet, which also influences precipitation. Here, the authors show that the latest CMIP6 model ensemble shows a faster Arctic warming and sea-ice loss, causing an earlier transition from a snow- to a rain-dominated Arctic than previously thought.
- Michelle R. McCrystall
- Julienne Stroeve
- James A. Screen
Article Open Access 30 Nov 2021 Nature Communications
Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise

The exposure of populations to sea-level rise is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. The authors identify three spatial zones of flooding such as mean higher water, the 100 year floodplain and the low-elevation coastal zone and show population exposure can differ between those zones.
- Mathew E. Hauer
- Dean Hardy
- Peter U. Clark
Article Open Access 25 Nov 2021 Nature Communications
Temperature effects on carbon storage are controlled by soil stabilisation capacities

The extent to which temperature controls soil carbon storage remains highly uncertain. Here, the authors show that, globally, soil carbon stocks decline strongly with temperature, but the effect is much greater in coarse-textured soils with limited organic matter stabilisation capacities, than in fine-textured soils.
- Iain P. Hartley
- Tim C. Hill
- Gustaf Hugelius
Article Open Access 18 Nov 2021 Nature Communications
Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Comprehensive policy measures are needed to close the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and emissions goals of the Paris Agreement. Here the authors present a Bridge scenario that may aid in closing the emissions gap by 2030.
- Heleen L. van Soest
- Lara Aleluia Reis
- Detlef P. van Vuuren
Article Open Access 5 Nov 2021 Nature Communications
Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations

Accurate assessments of ice-sheet runoff are essential for sea-level projections. A new method using satellite altimeter observations can provide near real-time surface mass balance measurements across an entire ice sheet and reveal runoff variability not captured by global climate models.
- Thomas Slater
- Andrew Shepherd
- Kate Briggs
Article Open Access 1 Nov 2021 Nature Communications
Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

The western United States have seen an increase in wildfire activity in recent decades, the causes of which are not well understood. Here, the authors show that Arctic sea ice decline contributed to this increase through its influence on regional circulation which enhanced fire-favourable weather conditions.
- Yufei Zou
- Philip J. Rasch
- Rudong Zhang
Article Open Access 26 Oct 2021 Nature Communications
Altered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020

We combine data from global forest resource assessments with a forest model to quantify the role of major drivers of net carbon fluxes from global forest biomass at national resolution between 1990 and 2020. We find that growth-condition changes, more than reforestation, counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions mostly driven by deforestation.
- Julia Le Noë
- Karl-Heinz Erb
- Simone Gingrich
Article Open Access 19 Oct 2021 Nature Communications
Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening

New climate models show a stronger warming with greenhouse gas emissions than is suggested by observations. Here, the authors argue that internal variability of the Atlantic Ocean may have dampened some of the recent warming, which could explain part of the disagreement between the newer models and observations.
- Rémy Bonnet
- Didier Swingedouw
- Adriana Sima
Article Open Access 20 Oct 2021 Nature Communications
Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality

Tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific have shifted north in recent decades, but the reasons for this are not well understood. Here, the authors show that this is caused by changes in the seasonality of tropical cyclones and is mainly driven by fewer late-season storms.
- Xiangbo Feng
- Nicholas P. Klingaman
- Kevin I. Hodges
Article Open Access 27 Oct 2021 Nature Communications
Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe

Heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent and more intense, causing severe economic impacts through reduced labour productivity. Here, the authors show that economic damages in Europe exceed 1% of the GDP in vulnerable areas, which might increase by a factor of almost five in the medium term without climate action.
- David García-León
- Ana Casanueva
- Lars Nybo
Article Open Access 4 Oct 2021 Nature Communications
Considering socio-political framings when analyzing coastal climate change effects can prevent maldevelopment on small islands

Climate change adaptation and sea level rise pose challenges for both natural and societal dynamics. Here the authors analyse coastal processes and socio-political dimensions of erosion, leading to maldevelopment on Fuvahmulah in the Maldives.
- C. Gabriel David
- Arne Hennig
- Torsten Schlurmann
Article Open Access 7 Oct 2021 Nature Communications
Significance of the organic aerosol driven climate feedback in the boreal area

Vegetation emits organic vapors which can form aerosols in the atmosphere and influence cloud properties. Here, the authors show observational evidence that warmer temperatures lead to increased emissions of these aerosols in boreal forests which cause surface cooling, demonstrating a negative climate feedback mechanism.
- Taina Yli-Juuti
- Tero Mielonen
- Annele Virtanen
Article Open Access 24 Sep 2021 Nature Communications
Global increase in tropical cyclone rain rate

How much the potential intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) increases in warmer environments is not well known. Here, the authors show that TC rainfall rates have increased by 1.3% per year between 1998 and 2018, a trend that is mainly driven by stronger rainfall in the outer-core region of TCs.
- Oscar Guzman
- Haiyan Jiang
Article Open Access 9 Sep 2021 Nature Communications
CO₂, nitrogen deposition and a discontinuous climate response drive water use efficiency in global forests

Water use efficiency is a key measure of plant responses to climate change. Here, the authors investigate its control by CO2, nitrogen deposition, and water availability using a global tree-ring dataset. They find an aridity threshold and quantify changes in control over the past 50 years.
- Mark A. Adams
- Thomas N. Buckley
- Tarryn L. Turnbull
Article Open Access 31 Aug 2021 Nature Communications
Future phytoplankton diversity in a changing climate

Phytoplankton form the base of the marine ecosystem but current ocean models used for climate change projections are too simple to assess potential changes in plankton community structure. This study analyses a complex ecosystem model with 35 phytoplankton types to evaluate the changes in phytoplankton community composition, turnover and size structure over the 21st century.
- Stephanie A. Henson
- B. B. Cael
- Stephanie Dutkiewicz
Article Open Access 10 Sep 2021 Nature Communications
Climate warming promotes pesticide resistance through expanding overwintering range of a global pest

Climate-driven range shifts may affect pesticide resistance. Here, the authors analyse experimentally parameterised and field-tested models to show that a cosmopolitan insect pest, the diamondback moth, is acquiring resistance against local pesticides through expanding overwintering range.
- Chun-Sen Ma
- Wei Zhang
- Volker H. W. Rudolf
Article Open Access 9 Sep 2021 Nature Communications
Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions

How climate change influences the lifecycle of stratospheric volcanic aerosols and the associated radiative forcing is unknown. Here, the authors present model experiments suggesting that climate change amplifies the forcing of large-magnitude tropical eruptions but reduces the forcing of moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions.
- Thomas J. Aubry
- John Staunton-Sykes
- Anja Schmidt
Article Open Access 12 Aug 2021 Nature Communications
Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions

The linkage between temperature change and extinction rates in the fossil record is well-known qualitatively but little explored quantitatively. Here the authors investigate the relationship of marine animal extinctions with rate and magnitude of temperature change across the last 450 million years, and identify thresholds in climate change linked to mass extinctions.
- Haijun Song
- David B. Kemp
- Xu Dai
Article Open Access 4 Aug 2021 Nature Communications
Future global urban water scarcity and potential solutions

This paper quantifies global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 and explores potential solutions. One third to nearly half of the global urban population is projected to face water scarcity problems.
- Chunyang He
- Zhifeng Liu
- Brett A. Bryan
Article Open Access 3 Aug 2021 Nature Communications
Revealing the widespread potential of forests to increase low level cloud cover

Forests can influence climate by affecting low cloud formation, but where and when this occurs is not well known. Here, the authors provide a global-scale assessment, based on satellite remote sensing observations, suggesting afforestation mostly increases low cloud cover which could potentially cool surface temperatures.
- Gregory Duveiller
- Federico Filipponi
- Alessandro Cescatti
Article Open Access 15 Jul 2021 Nature Communications
The mortality cost of carbon

Climate change is expected to have impacts on human mortality, e.g. through increases in heat waves. Here, the author proposes a new metric to account for excess deaths from additional CO2 emissions, which allows to assess the mortality impacts of marginal emissions and leads to a substantial increase in the social costs of carbon.
- R. Daniel Bressler
Article Open Access 29 Jul 2021 Nature Communications
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Release of freshwater into the oceans as a result of ice sheet melting could impact the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases. Here, the authors show that a rapid ice sheet melting in Greenland could cause an emergence of malaria in Southern Africa whilst transmission risks in West Africa may decline.
- Alizée Chemison
- Gilles Ramstein
- Cyril Caminade
Article Open Access 25 Jun 2021 Nature Communications
Global LiDAR land elevation data reveal greatest sea-level rise vulnerability in the tropics

Predicting the risk of flooding in coastal environments relies on accurate land elevation data, but this is not available in many parts of the world. Here the authors apply a global lowland digital terrain model derived from satellite LiDAR and determine that the regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise are in the tropics.
- A. Hooijer
- R. Vernimmen
Article Open Access 29 Jun 2021 Nature Communications
Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets

Climate models project an intensification of extreme precipitation under climate change, but this effect is difficult to detect in the observational record. Here, the authors show that a physically interpretable anthropogenic impact on extreme precipitation is detectable in global observational data sets.
- Gavin D. Madakumbura
- Chad W. Thackeray
- Alex Hall
Article Open Access 6 Jul 2021 Nature Communications
A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

As sea levels rise, coasts are being increasingly threatened by overtopping caused by the combination of sea level rise, storm surge and wave runup. Here the authors find that global coastal overtopping has increased by over 50% in the last two decades, and under a RCP 8.5 scenario this could increase up to 50 times by 2100 compared to today.
- Rafael Almar
- Roshanka Ranasinghe
- Elodie Kestenare
Article Open Access 18 Jun 2021 Nature Communications
Responses of plant diversity to precipitation change are strongest at local spatial scales and in drylands

The responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in precipitation patterns are highly context-dependent. Here the authors perform a quantitative synthesis of field rainfall manipulation experiments, showing stronger effects of precipitation on plant diversity at small spatial scales and in arid biomes.
- Lotte Korell
- Harald Auge
- Tiffany M. Knight
Article Open Access 3 May 2021 Nature Communications
Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways

Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial (harvested) forestry is disputed. Here the authors apply dynamic life cycle assessment to show that new commercial conifer forests can achieve up to 269% more GHG mitigation than semi-natural forests, over 100 years.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- John R. Healey
- David Styles
Article Open Access 22 Jun 2021 Nature Communications
Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone

Despite a ban on ozone depleting substances, ozone depletion during cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere has been increasing in recent decades. Here, the authors show conditions favourable for Arctic ozone depletion could worsen as a response of stratospheric temperature and water to continued release of greenhouse gases.
- Peter von der Gathen
- Rigel Kivi
- Markus Rex
Article Open Access 23 Jun 2021 Nature Communications
Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects

Aviation contributes to climate change and ways to reduce its emissions are widely debated. Here, the authors assess the effects of technology improvements and the use of sustainable aviation fuels and find that even when these are considered aviation is unlikely to meet emissions goals in line with the Paris Agreement.
- Volker Grewe
- Arvind Gangoli Rao
- Katrin Dahlmann
Article Open Access 22 Jun 2021 Nature Communications

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