Focus |

Carbon budgets and the 1.5 °C target

Budgets of carbon emissions that are consistent with limiting warming to no more than 1.5 °C over preindustrial temperatures have been hotly debated, following the Paris Agreement on climate change targets. Here we present comments and primary research discussing the impacts of the debate on decision making processes, and the issues that the climate science community now needs to grapple with.

Carbon budgets

The remaining carbon budget consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allows 20 more years of current emissions according to one study, but is already exhausted according to another. Both are defensible. We need to move on from a unique carbon budget, and face the nuances.

Comment | | Nature Geoscience

If emissions continue at the present-day rate, about 22 years are left until global mean warming reaches the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target, suggests a new metric based on the observed level and rate of anthropogenic warming.

News & Views | | Nature Geoscience