The regression pattern of (a) TPT from the MERRA data and (c) SST anomalies from the HadISST data on the ENSO index (e). The ENSO index is the leading PC of observed global SST anomalies from the HadISST data for the period 1900–2014, with the seasonal cycle and linear trend removed. The ENSO mode explains 19% of variance of the SST anomalies. Black contour lines in (a) show the explained variance in percent with a contour interval of 15%. Stippling in (a) indicates the 95% significance level, with autocorrelation effects taken into account. (b,d,f) Same as (a,c,e), but for the Natural CESM-WACCM experiment for the period 1955–2099. The right hand side number in (d) is the pattern correlation between (d,c). Maps were produced using licensed IDL (http://www.harrisgeospatial.com/ProductsandSolutions/GeospatialProducts/IDL.aspx), version 8.1.