Figure 1 : NH (left) and Global (right) mean temperature observations (GISTEMP-red) vs. CMIP5 mean estimated forced component (black) using CMIP5 all-forcing experiments.

From: The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth

Figure 1

Here and in subsequent figures, model hemispheric and global mean surface temperatures are based on a combination (“TAS/TOS”) of surface air temperature (“TAS”) over land and sea surface temperature (“TOS”) over ocean. Here and elsewhere in the article, temperatures are defined as anomalies relative to the the long-term (1880-2014) mean.