Probabilities of observing trends of indicated lengths and magnitudes associated with the CGCM-produced forced signals incorporating the RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios.
(a), (b) and (c) show the probability of observing a linear trend of a given length and within the given magnitude bin from 1993 to 2050 as indicated by superimposing the ESRUN on the RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 forced signals respectively. The yellow line represents the observed trends in the GISTEMP dataset ending in 2013 and progressing backwards in time for the length of the trend (e.g., the yellow star associated with the 15-year trend length represents the linear trend from 1998 to 2013). This comparison helps indicate whether or not the observed rate of warming from 1993–2013 is consistent with the mean rate of warming from 1993–2050 expected from the 3 CGCM-produced forced signals. (d), Cancellation Timescale (see text for definition) at 0.5%, 2.5% and 5% for RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 (e), probability of observing at least 1 negative linear trend of the given length over the period 1993–2050 (see Methods). The red dashed line in both (d) and (e) represents the negative 11-year trend that was observed in GISTEMP from 2002 to 2013. All trends were calculated with an ordinary least squares procedure.