Probabilistic assessment of natural sea-level change based on equations 1–3.
The heavy line is the probability maximum (peak of the probability distribution), the grey envelope marks the 68% probability interval and the dashed blue (red) lines mark the 90% (95%) probability intervals, respectively. (a). Rates of SLR relative to 1700, in m cy−1 (i.e., 100 × result from equation 1). (b). SLR after equation (2). (c). Zoomed-in portion of (b), ending at 2200. The brown wedge is the range of semi-empirical projections by Vermeer and Rahmstorf12, the heavy dot outlines the most-likely projection by Pfeffer et al9. and the heavy dashed black line represents the full range of SLR estimates of Pfeffer et al9. Historical sea-level reconstructions of Jevrejeva et al11. (green dots) and Church and White51 (magenta dots) are also shown. (d). As (c), but zoomed in on 1700–2100.