Table 3: Parameter Estimates for Ebola Zaire excluding the ongoing outbreak in West Africa

From: A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making

Parameter Estimate
Incubation Period Distribution (range of central estimates, (range)) * 5.3–12.7 (1–21) days
Serial interval Distribution (range of mean estimates) 10–16.1 days
Khan et al. (mean) 5 14 days
Muyembe & Kipasa (approximation) 70 10 days
Dowell et al. (median, (range)) 39 Med=17 days (9–25)
White & Pagano (mean, (IQR)) 60 5.82 days (5.43–7.60)
Maganga et al. (median, (range), mean, s.d.) 49 Med=16 days (3–27), 16.1 days, 4.4
R 0 (range of estimates) 1.36–4.71
Chowell et al. (estimate, s.d.) 44 1.83, 0.06
Ferrari et al. (estimate, (95% CI) 58 3.65 (3.05, 4.33)
Legrand et al. (estimate, (95% CI)) 59 2.7 (1.9, 2.8)
Lekone & Finkenstädt (estimate, s.d.) 42 1.36, 0.13
Ndanguza et al. (estimate, (95% CI)) 35 2.22 (1.90, 2.73)
White & Pagano (estimate, (IQR)) 60 1.93 (1.74–2.78)
Camacho et al. (estimate, (95% CI)) 38 4.71 (3.92, 5.66)
R t (range of estimates) 0.84–1.29
Maganga et al. (estimate, (95% CI) 49) 1.29 (−4.72, 7.29)
0.84 (−0.38, 2.06)
Delay Distributions (days)
 Infectious period
  Chowell et al. (mean, s.d.) 44 5.61,0.19
 Symptom onset to…
  … hospitalization (range of mean and median estimates) 4–5; Med=3–4
   Khan et al. (mean, median, (range), n) 5 5, Med=4 (0–19), n=219
   Rowe et al. (mean, s.d., median, (range)) 20 4, 3.3, Med=3 (0–14)
   Camacho et al. (median, (95% CI)) 38 Med=3.00 (2.81, 3.20)
  … death (range of mean estimates) 6–10.1
   Camacho et al. (median, (95% CI)) 38 Med=7.49 (7.30, 7.69)
   Bwaka et al. (mean, (range), n) 37 10.1 (3–21), n=86
   Dowell et al. (median) 39 Med=10
   Khan et al. (mean, median, (range), n) 5 9.6, Med=9 (0–34), n=224
   Nkoghe et al. (mean, (range), n) 25 6.2 (3–13), n=12
Med=6 (<15 years old)
Med=9 (15–29 years old)
   Sadek et al. (median, n) 50 Med=10 (30–44 years old)
Med=8 (45–59 years old)
Med=9.5 (>59 years old), overall n=226
   Georges et al. (range) 6 12–18
   Maganga et al. (median, (range), mean, s.d.) 49 11 (1–30), 11.3, 6.8
  … recovery 10
   Camacho et al. (median, (95% CI)) 38 10.00 (9.80, 10.19)
 Hospitalization to…
  … discharge 17
   Khan et al. (mean, median, (range), n) 5 17, Med=14 (0–56), n=34
  … death 4.6
   Khan et al. (mean, median, (range), n) 5 4.6, Med=4 (0–20), n=185
 Death to burial
  Camacho et al. (median, (95% CI)) 38 Med=0.99 (0.8, 1.18)
Overall Case Fatality Rate (range of estimates)α 0.69–0.88
International Commission (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 2 0.88, n=318, 1976
Muyembe & Kipasa (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 70 0.74, n=136, 1995
Ndambi et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 43 0.78, n=23, 1995
Khan et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 5 0.81, n=315, 1995
Overall: 0.807, n=310, 1995
0.778 (<15 years old)
Sadek et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 50 0.69 (15–29 years old)
0.796 (30–44 years old)
0.89 (45–59 years old)
0.957 (>59 years old)
Chowell et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 44 0.81, n=315, 1995
Nkoghe et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 25 0.83, n=12, 2005
Camacho et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 38 0.88, n=262, 1976
Maganga et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 49 0.74, n=69, 2014
  1. Med=median; s.d.=standard deviation.
  2. *See Fig. 1 for individual estimates; extreme outlier estimate from Ndanguza et al. 35 not included.
  3. generation time estimated as serial interval.
  4. No methodology provided.
  5. α*See Fig. 2 for CFR estimates.