a Total GrIS discharge (black curve) with early (blue) and late-thinning (red dashes) scenarios between 1985 and 1999, and discharge estimates derived from wintertime InSAR velocities from Mouginot et al.4 in green. Gray shading is 2-σ uncertainty. b Net annual mass balance (Ba, black curve), annual surface mass balance (SMBa, blue dashes with circles) and total annual discharge (Da, red dashes with crosses). c Total shading shows the cumulative mass anomaly (Bc) of Ba since 1985 broken into cumulative contributions from discharge (Dc, red) and surface mass balance (SMBc, blue). Bc including SMB from peripheral ice caps, to match the GRACE domain, is plotted by dark blue line. GRACE estimates, updated from Wouters et al.16 for the 2002–2018 time period, are also plotted on this axis as a moving 12-month average (dotted black), and shifted along the y-axis to begin at the 2002 Bc value.