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The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 5, pages 588–604 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) strongly affects the climate of the Indo-Pacific. Observations suggest a shift towards stronger and earlier positive IOD (pIOD) events alongside an increased amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but uncertainty remains, impeding assessments of ongoing changes. In this Review, we synthesize the available knowledge of projected changes in the IOD during the twenty-first century under anthropogenic warming. Compared to observations, models struggle to simulate the Bjerknes feedback, asymmetry in the strength of positive and negative IOD anomalies and El Niño–Southern Oscillation or monsoonal forcings. Yet several models do capture important feedbacks reasonably well and offer useful tools with which to assess IOD evolution. A pIOD-like SST warming pattern (an enhanced west-minus-east SST gradient) alongside shifts in feedback process drive corresponding changes to the IOD. Over the course of the twenty-first century, robust changes include: enhanced IOD SST variability (as measured by the first principal component of spring SST variability, not the dipole mode index); an increase in strong rainfall pIOD events; an increase and decrease in the frequency of strong-pIOD and moderate-pIOD, respectively, as defined by SST; and an increase in the frequency of early-pIOD events. Palaeo evidence reveals similar increases in the magnitude and frequency of pIOD events underpinned by a similar pattern of mean state change (Last Glacial Maximum, post-1960), reinforcing IOD projections. Sustained international efforts are needed to improve IOD simulations and reduce projection uncertainties.

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Fig. 1: The observed characteristics and changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole since 1958.
Fig. 2: Simulated twentieth-century Indian Ocean Dipole characteristics.
Fig. 3: Projected changes in the mean state and feedbacks.
Fig. 4: Projected changes in first principal mode SST variability, the strong- and moderate-pIOD regimes, and changes in IOD teleconnection.
Fig. 5: Projected changes in ENSO–IOD and monsoon–IOD couplings, and impacts of mean state bias on the IOD changes.
Fig. 6: Past, present and future context for the IOD.
Fig. 7: Time of emergence of climate change signals in the tropical Indian Ocean.

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Acknowledgements

This work is funded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB40030000). G.W. and B.N. are supported by the Australian government under the National Environmental Science Program. N.A. is funded by the Australian Research Council (CE170100023 and SR200100008). K.Y. is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42105032). T.G. is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China project (42206209, 42276006) and the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents (BX20220279). Y.D. is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42090042, 42149910 and 42049910) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (133244KYSB20190031, 183311KYSB20200015). J.L. is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42288101). T.L. is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42088101). T.I. is funded by the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD). S.S. is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41976021). T.T. is funded by the JSPS KAKENHI (JP22K18727). X.Z. is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41975092). S.H. is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42022040).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Guojian Wang, Agus Santoso, Benjamin Ng, Kai Yang & Yi Liu

  2. Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Wenju Cai, Tao Geng, Xiaotong Zheng, Yi Liu & Lixin Wu

  3. Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China

    Wenju Cai, Tao Geng, Jianping Li, Xiaotong Zheng, Lixin Wu, Fan Jia & Shijian Hu

  4. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China

    Wenju Cai

  5. State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science & College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China

    Wenju Cai

  6. Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Agus Santoso & Sebastian McKenna

  7. International CLIVAR Project Office, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Agus Santoso

  8. Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie Abram

  9. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie Abram

  10. ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie Abram

  11. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Kai Yang

  12. Application Laboratory (APL)/Research Institute for Value-Added-Information Generation (VAiG)/Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan

    Takeshi Doi

  13. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China

    Yan Du

  14. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Yan Du

  15. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 241 SECOPOL IRD/UPF/IFREMER/ILM, Université de la Polynésie Française (UPF), Tahiti, French Polynesia

    Takeshi Izumo

  16. Physical Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia

    Karumuri Ashok

  17. Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hyderabad, Gachibowli, India

    Karumuri Ashok

  18. Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multi-spheres and Earth System (DOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Academy of Future Ocean, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Jianping Li

  19. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA

    Tim Li

  20. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Tim Li

  21. First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China

    Shuangwen Sun

  22. Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center, Qingdao, China

    Shuangwen Sun

  23. Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao, China

    Shuangwen Sun

  24. Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Tomoki Tozuka

  25. Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting, Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China

    Fan Jia & Shijian Hu

  26. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Xichen Li

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Contributions

G.W., W.C. and A.S. conceived the Review and coordinated the manuscript preparation, interpretation, discussion and writing. B.N., K.Y. and A.S. led the sections on the observed and simulated IOD processes. N.A. led the section on palaeoclimate data and created Fig. 6 with input from G.W. G.W. and T.G. conducted analysis and created Fig. 7. W.C. and G.W. led the remaining sections, and G.W. conducted analysis and generated other figures. All authors contributed to the manuscript preparation, interpretation, discussion and writing.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Guojian Wang or Wenju Cai.

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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment thanks Shanshan Liu, and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Wang, G., Cai, W., Santoso, A. et al. The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world. Nat Rev Earth Environ 5, 588–604 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7

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