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  • Review Article
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The imbalance of the Asian water tower

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 3, pages 618–632 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

The Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan system, named the Third Pole because it is the largest global store of frozen water after the polar regions, provides a reliable water supply to almost 2 billion people. Marked atmospheric warming has changed the balance of this so-called Asian water tower and altered water resources in downstream countries. In this Review, we synthesize observational evidence and model projections that describe an imbalance in the Asian water tower caused by accelerated transformation of ice and snow into liquid water. This phase change is associated with a south–north disparity due to the spatio-temporal interaction between the westerlies and the Indian monsoon. A corresponding spatial imbalance is exhibited by alterations in freshwater resources in endorheic or exorheic basins. Global warming is expected to amplify this imbalance, alleviating water scarcity in the Yellow and Yangtze River basins and increasing scarcity in the Indus and Amu Darya River basins. However, the future of the Asian water tower remains highly uncertain. Accurate predictions of future water supply require the establishment of comprehensive monitoring stations in data-scarce regions and the development of advanced coupled atmosphere–cryosphere–hydrology models. Such models are needed to inform the development of actionable policies for sustainable water resource management.

Key points

  • During 1980–2018, warming of the Asian Water Tower (AWT) was 0.42 °C per decade, twice the global average rate.

  • Annual precipitation in the AWT increased by 11 mm per decade in endorheic basins and 12 mm per decade in exorheic basins, despite decreased precipitation in some large river basins.

  • From 2000 to 2018, total glacier mass in the AWT decreased by about 340 Gt whereas total water mass in lakes increased by 166 Gt.

  • Changes in the westerlies and the Indian monsoon led the AWT to develop an imbalance characterized by water gains in endorheic basins and water losses in exorheic basins.

  • Ubiquitous increases in precipitation and river run-off are projected in the future of the AWT; however, these changes cannot meet the accelerating water demands of downstream regions and countries.

  • Comprehensive monitoring systems, advanced modelling capacity and sustainable water management are needed to develop adaptation policies for the AWT through collaboration between upstream and downstream regions and countries.

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Fig. 1: Synthesis of observed changes in different components of the Asian water tower.
Fig. 2: Projected changes in precipitation, glaciers and river run-off in the Asian water tower.
Fig. 3: Projected changes in anthropogenic water resource demand in the Asian water tower.
Fig. 4: Projected changes in water resources for the Asian water tower and its downstream dependent areas.
Fig. 5: Schematic of the status of the Asian water tower in the past, present and future.

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Acknowledgements

The authors’ research work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) programme (2019QZKK0201,2019QZKK0208) and the Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20060201, XDA20100300). The authors are listed in alphabetic order by family name, except for the first author.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Tandong Yao, Jing Gao, Shilong Piao, Fengge Su, Lei Wang, Tao Wang, Guangjian Wu, Baiqing Xu, Wei Yang & Guoqing Zhang

  2. School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK

    Tobias Bolch

  3. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden

    Deliang Chen

  4. Faculty of Geosciences, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Walter Immerzeel

  5. Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

    Shilong Piao

  6. Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

    Lonnie Thompson

  7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Yoshihide Wada

  8. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

    Ping Zhao

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Contributions

T.Y. designed the Review. T.Y., S.P., G.Z., T.W., W.Y., J.G., L.W., F.S. and P.Z. wrote the first draft of the manuscript. T.B., D.C., L.T., W.I., W.Y., B.X. and G.W. reviewed and edited the manuscript. All authors made substantial contributions to discussions of its content.

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Correspondence to Tandong Yao or Guoqing Zhang.

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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment thanks Jida Wang, who co-reviewed with Fangfang Yao, Anamika Barua and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Yao, T., Bolch, T., Chen, D. et al. The imbalance of the Asian water tower. Nat Rev Earth Environ 3, 618–632 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4

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