Over the modern satellite era, substantial climatic changes have been observed in the Antarctic, including atmospheric and oceanic warming, ice sheet thinning and a general Antarctic-wide expansion of sea ice, followed by a more recent rapid loss. Although these changes, featuring strong zonal asymmetry, are partially influenced by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and stratospheric ozone depletion, tropical–polar teleconnections are believed to have a role through Rossby wave dynamics. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of tropical teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere extratropics arising from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, focusing on the mechanisms and long-term climatic impacts. These teleconnections have contributed to observed Antarctic and Southern Ocean changes, including regional rapid surface warming, pre-2015 sea ice expansion and its sudden reduction thereafter, changes in ocean heat content and accelerated thinning of most of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, due to limited observations and inherent model biases, uncertainties remain in understanding and assessing the importance of these teleconnections versus those arising from greenhouse gases, ozone recovery and internal variability. Sustained pan-Antarctic efforts towards long-term observations, and more realistic dynamics and parameterizations in high-resolution climate models, offer opportunities to reduce these uncertainties.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Open Access articles citing this article.
Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes
Nature Climate Change Open Access 20 February 2023
Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Open Access 11 January 2023
The relative role of the subsurface Southern Ocean in driving negative Antarctic Sea ice extent anomalies in 2016–2021
Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 30 November 2022
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 per month
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 digital issues and online access to articles
$79.00 per year
only $6.58 per issue
Rent or buy this article
Get just this article for as long as you need it
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Domingues, C. M. et al. Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453, 1090–1093 (2008).
Gille, S. T. Decadal-scale temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere ocean. J. Clim. 21, 4749–4765 (2008).
Spence, P. et al. Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 4601–4610 (2014).
Bromwich, D. H. et al. Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. Nat. Geosci. 6, 139–145 (2013).
Steig, E. J. et al. Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature 457, 459–462 (2009).
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A. & Padman, L. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating. Science 348, 327–331 (2015).
Rignot, E. et al. Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling. Nat. Geosci. 1, 106–110 (2008).
Meehl, G. A. et al. Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016. Nat. Commun. 10, 14 (2019).
Parkinson, C. L. A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 14414–14423 (2019).
Stammerjohn, S. E., Martinson, D. G., Smith, R. C., Yuan, X. & Rind, D. Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 113, C03S90 (2008).
Stuecker, M. F., Bitz, C. M. & Armour, K. C. Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 9008–9019 (2017).
Turner, J. et al. Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 6868–6875 (2017).
Kennicutt, M. C. II et al. Sustained Antarctic research: a 21st century imperative. One Earth 1, 95–113 (2019).
Kennicutt, M. C. et al. A roadmap for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science for the next two decades and beyond. Antarctic Sci. 27, 3–18 (2015).
Dutrieux, P. et al. Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability. Science 343, 174–178 (2014).
Joughin, I. & Alley, R. B. Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world. Nat. Geosci. 4, 506–513 (2011).
Anilkumar, N., Chacko, R., Sabu, P. & George, J. V. Freshening of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Indian ocean sector of Southern ocean. Deep. Sea Res. Part II Top. Stud. Oceanogr. 118, 162–169 (2015).
Haumann, F. A., Gruber, N., Münnich, M., Frenger, I. & Kern, S. Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends. Nature 537, 89–92 (2016).
Ohshima, K. I. et al. Antarctic Bottom Water production by intense sea-ice formation in the Cape Darnley polynya. Nat. Geosci. 6, 235–240 (2013).
Wang, G. et al. Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low Antarctic sea-ice in 2016. Nat. Commun. 10, 13 (2019).
Jones, M. E. et al. Sixty years of widespread warming in the southern middle and high latitudes (1957–2016). J. Clim. 32, 6875–6898 (2019).
Thompson, D. W. & Solomon, S. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296, 895–899 (2002).
Thompson, D. W. et al. Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change. Nat. Geosci. 4, 741–749 (2011).
Wang, G., Cai, W. & Purich, A. Trends in Southern Hemisphere wind-driven circulation in CMIP5 models over the 21st century: Ozone recovery versus greenhouse forcing. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 119, 2974–2986 (2014).
Arblaster, J. M. & Meehl, G. A. Contributions of external forcings to southern annular mode trends. J. Clim. 19, 2896–2905 (2006).
Lecomte, O. et al. Vertical ocean heat redistribution sustaining sea-ice concentration trends in the Ross Sea. Nat. Commun. 8, 258 (2017).
Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. & Yang, X. Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 59–65 (2019).
Li, X., Holland, D. M., Gerber, E. P. & Yoo, C. Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice. Nature 505, 538–542 (2014).
Shepherd, A. et al. Mass balance of the antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature 558, 219–222 (2018).
Cavalieri, D. J., Parkinson, C. L. & Vinnikov, K. Y. 30-Year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1970 (2003).
King, J. Climate science: A resolution of the Antarctic paradox. Nature 505, 491–492 (2014).
Simpkins, G. R., Ciasto, L. M. & England, M. H. Observed variations in multidecadal Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979–2012. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3643–3648 (2013).
Bamber, J. L., Westaway, R. M., Marzeion, B. & Wouters, B. The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063008 (2018).
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F. & Aoki, S. Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters. Science 346, 1227–1231 (2014).
Smith, B. et al. Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes. Science 368, 1239–1242 (2020).
Turner, J., Phillips, T., Hosking, J. S., Marshall, G. J. & Orr, A. The Amundsen Sea low. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 1818–1829 (2013).
Ding, Q., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S. & Küttel, M. Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by central tropical Pacific warming. Nat. Geosci. 4, 398–403 (2011).
Meehl, G. A., Hu, A., Santer, B. D. & Xie, S.-P. Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 1005–1008 (2016).
Raphael, M. et al. The Amundsen Sea low: Variability, change, and impact on Antarctic climate. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97, 111–121 (2016).
Ding, Q., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S. & Wallace, J. M. Influence of the tropics on the Southern Annular Mode. J. Clim. 25, 6330–6348 (2012).
Fogt, R. L. & Bromwich, D. H. Decadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the high-latitude South Pacific governed by coupling with the southern annular mode. J. Clim. 19, 979–997 (2006).
Fogt, R. L., Bromwich, D. H. & Hines, K. M. Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO teleconnection. Clim. Dyn. 36, 1555–1576 (2011).
Hoskins, B. J. & Ambrizzi, T. Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1661–1671 (1993).
Hoskins, B. J. & Karoly, D. J. The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 1179–1196 (1981).
L’Heureux, M. L. & Thompson, D. W. Observed relationships between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation. J. Clim. 19, 276–287 (2006).
Schneider, D. P., Deser, C. & Okumura, Y. An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring. Clim. Dyn. 38, 323–347 (2012).
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Bitz, C. M., Chung, C. T. & Teng, H. Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability. Nat. Geosci. 9, 590–595 (2016).
Lefebvre, W., Goosse, H., Timmermann, R. & Fichefet, T. Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice–ocean system. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 109, C09005 (2004).
White, W. B. & Peterson, R. G. An Antarctic circumpolar wave in surface pressure, wind, temperature and sea-ice extent. Nature 380, 699–702 (1996).
Ding, M. et al. Towards more snow days in summer since 2001 at the Great Wall Station, Antarctic Peninsula: The role of the Amundsen Sea low. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 37, 494–504 (2020).
Welhouse, L. J., Lazzara, M. A., Keller, L. M., Tripoli, G. J. & Hitchman, M. H. Composite analysis of the effects of ENSO events on Antarctica. J. Clim. 29, 1797–1808 (2016).
Yuan, X. & Li, C. Climate modes in southern high latitudes and their impacts on Antarctic sea ice. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 113, C06S91 (2008).
Yuan, X. & Martinson, D. G. The Antarctic dipole and its predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 3609–3612 (2001).
Cai, W. et al. Pantropical climate interactions. Science 363, eaav4236 (2019).
Li, X., Gerber, E. P., Holland, D. M. & Yoo, C. A Rossby wave bridge from the tropical Atlantic to West Antarctica. J. Clim. 28, 2256–2273 (2015).
Li, X., Xie, S.-P., Gille, S. T. & Yoo, C. Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 275–279 (2016).
Nuncio, M. & Yuan, X. The influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on Antarctic sea ice. J. Clim. 28, 2682–2690 (2015).
Simpkins, G. R., Peings, Y. & Magnusdottir, G. Pacific influences on tropical Atlantic teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes. J. Clim. 29, 6425–6444 (2016).
Li, X., Holland, D. M., Gerber, E. P. & Yoo, C. Rossby waves mediate impacts of tropical oceans on West Antarctic atmospheric circulation in austral winter. J. Clim. 28, 8151–8164 (2015).
Alexander, M. A. et al. The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Clim. 15, 2205–2231 (2002).
Kidson, J. W. Principal modes of Southern Hemisphere low-frequency variability obtained from NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. J. Clim. 12, 2808–2830 (1999).
Mo, K. C. & Higgins, R. W. The Pacific–South American modes and tropical convection during the Southern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Weather Rev. 126, 1581–1596 (1998).
Garreaud, R. & Battisti, D. S. Interannual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) variability in the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation. J. Clim. 12, 2113–2123 (1999).
Ding, Q. & Steig, E. J. Temperature change on the Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Pacific. J. Clim. 26, 7570–7585 (2013).
Simpkins, G. R., McGregor, S., Taschetto, A. S., Ciasto, L. M. & England, M. H. Tropical connections to climatic change in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The role of Atlantic SST trends. J. Clim. 27, 4923–4936 (2014).
Ciasto, L. M., Simpkins, G. R. & England, M. H. Teleconnections between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and extratropical Southern Hemisphere climate. J. Clim. 28, 56–65 (2015).
Wilson, A. B., Bromwich, D. H. & Hines, K. M. Simulating the mutual forcing of anomalous high southern latitude atmospheric circulation by El Niño flavors and the Southern Annular Mode. J. Clim. 29, 2291–2309 (2016).
Hitchman, M. H. & Rogal, M. J. ENSO influences on Southern Hemisphere column ozone during the winter to spring transition. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115, D20104 (2010).
Jin, D. & Kirtman, B. P. The impact of ENSO periodicity on North Pacific SST variability. Clim. Dyn. 34, 1015–1039 (2010).
Schneider, D. P., Okumura, Y. & Deser, C. Observed Antarctic interannual climate variability and tropical linkages. J. Clim. 25, 4048–4066 (2012).
Scott Yiu, Y. Y. & Maycock, A. C. On the seasonality of the El Niño teleconnection to the Amundsen Sea region. J. Clim. 32, 4829–4845 (2019).
Karoly, D. J. Southern hemisphere circulation features associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. J. Clim. 2, 1239–1252 (1989).
Yuan, X. ENSO-related impacts on Antarctic sea ice: a synthesis of phenomenon and mechanisms. Antarctic Sci. 16, 415–425 (2004).
Yuan, X., Kaplan, M. R. & Cane, M. A. The interconnected global climate system — A review of tropical–polar teleconnections. J. Clim. 31, 5765–5792 (2018).
Liu, J., Yuan, X., Rind, D. & Martinson, D. G. Mechanism study of the ENSO and southern high latitude climate teleconnections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 24-1–24-4 (2002).
Rind, D. et al. Effects of glacial meltwater in the GISS coupled atmosphereocean model: 1. North Atlantic Deep Water response. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 106, 27335–27353 (2001).
Bals-Elsholz, T. M. et al. The wintertime Southern Hemisphere split jet: Structure, variability, and evolution. J. Clim. 14, 4191–4215 (2001).
Chen, B., Smith, S. R. & Bromwich, D. H. Evolution of the tropospheric split jet over the South Pacific Ocean during the 1986–89 ENSO cycle. Mon. Weather Rev. 124, 1711–1731 (1996).
Carleton, A. M. & Carpenter, D. A. Satellite climatology of ‘polar lows’ and broadscale climatic associations for the Southern Hemisphere. Int. J. Climatol. 10, 219–246 (1990).
Sinclair, M. R. Objective identification of cyclones and their circulation intensity, and climatology. Weather Forecast. 12, 595–612 (1997).
Okumura, Y. M., Schneider, D., Deser, C. & Wilson, R. Decadal–interdecadal climate variability over Antarctica and linkages to the tropics: Analysis of ice core, instrumental, and tropical proxy data. J. Clim. 25, 7421–7441 (2012).
Cai, W., Van Rensch, P., Cowan, T. & Hendon, H. H. Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall. J. Clim. 24, 3910–3923 (2011).
Saji, N., Ambrizzi, T. & Ferraz, S. E. T. Indian Ocean Dipole mode events and austral surface air temperature anomalies. Dyn. Atmos. Ocean. 39, 87–101 (2005).
Cai, W. et al. Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming. Nature 510, 254–258 (2014).
Pohl, B., Fauchereau, N., Reason, C. & Rouault, M. Relationships between the Antarctic Oscillation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and ENSO, and consequences for rainfall analysis. J. Clim. 23, 238–254 (2010).
Rondanelli, R., Hatchett, B., Rutllant, J., Bozkurt, D. & Garreaud, R. Strongest MJO on record triggers extreme Atacama rainfall and warmth in Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 3482–3491 (2019).
Yoo, C., Lee, S. & Feldstein, S. The impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation trend on the Antarctic warming during the 1979–2008 austral winter. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 13, 194–199 (2012).
Flatau, M. & Kim, Y.-J. Interaction between the MJO and polar circulations. J. Clim. 26, 3562–3574 (2013).
Rutllant, J. & Fuenzalida, H. Synoptic aspects of the central Chile rainfall variability associated with the Southern Oscillation. Int. J. Climatol. 11, 63–76 (1991).
Pope, J. O., Holland, P. R., Orr, A., Marshall, G. J. & Phillips, T. The impacts of El Niño on the observed sea ice budget of West Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 6200–6208 (2017).
Paolo, F. et al. Response of Pacific-sector Antarctic ice shelves to the El Niño/Southern oscillation. Nat. Geosci. 11, 121–126 (2018).
Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Battisti, D. & Jenkins, A. Tropical forcing of Circumpolar Deep Water inflow and outlet glacier thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol. 53, 19–28 (2012).
Hobbs, W. R. et al. A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings. Glob. Planet. Change 143, 228–250 (2016).
Raphael, M. N. & Hobbs, W. The influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on Antarctic sea ice during ice advance and retreat seasons. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 5037–5045 (2014).
Fogt, R. L. & Zbacnik, E. A. Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea low to stratospheric ozone depletion. J. Clim. 27, 9383–9400 (2014).
Jones, J. M. et al. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 917–926 (2016).
Turner, J. et al. Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L08502 (2009).
Henley, B. J. et al. A tripole index for the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. Clim. Dyn. 45, 3077–3090 (2015).
Purich, A., Cai, W., England, M. H. & Cowan, T. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes. Nat. Commun. 7, 10409 (2016).
Meehl, G. A., Hu, A. & Teng, H. Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Nat. Commun. 7, 11718 (2016).
Clem, K. R. & Fogt, R. L. South Pacific circulation changes and their connection to the tropics and regional Antarctic warming in austral spring, 1979–2012. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120, 2773–2792 (2015).
Brown, J. R. et al. South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics, variability and impacts in a changing climate. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1, 530–543 (2020).
Clem, K. R., Lintner, B. R., Broccoli, A. J. & Miller, J. R. Role of the South Pacific convergence zone in West Antarctic decadal climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 6900–6909 (2019).
Clem, K. R., Renwick, J. A., McGregor, J. & Fogt, R. L. The relative influence of ENSO and SAM on Antarctic Peninsula climate. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 121, 9324–9341 (2016).
Schlesinger, M. E. & Ramankutty, N. An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature 367, 723–726 (1994).
McGregor, S. et al. Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 888–892 (2014).
Meehl, G. A. et al. Atlantic and Pacific tropics connected by mutually interactive decadal-timescale processes. Nat. Geosci. 14, 36–42 (2021).
Marshall, G. J., Di Battista, S., Naik, S. S. & Thamban, M. Analysis of a regional change in the sign of the SAM–temperature relationship in Antarctica. Clim. Dyn. 36, 277–287 (2011).
Nicolas, J. P. & Bromwich, D. H. New reconstruction of Antarctic near-surface temperatures: Multidecadal trends and reliability of global reanalyses. J. Clim. 27, 8070–8093 (2014).
Bromwich, D. H. et al. Tropospheric clouds in Antarctica. Rev. Geophys. 50, RG1004 (2012).
Wang, Y., Huang, G. & Hu, K. Internal variability in multidecadal trends of surface air temperature over Antarctica in austral winter in model simulations. Clim. Dyn. 55, 2835–2847 (2020).
Turner, J. et al. Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability. Nature 535, 411–415 (2016).
Clem, K. R. et al. Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 762–770 (2020).
Kwok, R., Comiso, J. C., Lee, T. & Holland, P. R. Linked trends in the South Pacific sea ice edge and Southern Oscillation Index. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 10,295–10,302 (2016).
Schneider, D. P. & Deser, C. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: Reconciling observed and modeled trends. Clim. Dyn. 50, 4599–4618 (2018).
Turner, J. et al. Antarctic Temperature Variability and Change from Station Data. Int. J. Climatol. 40, 2986–3007 (2020).
Orr, A. et al. Characteristics of summer airflow over the Antarctic Peninsula in response to recent strengthening of westerly circumpolar winds. J. Atmos. Sci. 65, 1396–1413 (2008).
Van Lipzig, N. P., Marshall, G. J., Orr, A. & King, J. C. The relationship between the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and Antarctic Peninsula summer temperatures: Analysis of a high-resolution model climatology. J. Clim. 21, 1649–1668 (2008).
Holland, P. R. The seasonality of Antarctic sea ice trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 4230–4237 (2014).
Lu, J., Vecchi, G. A. & Reichler, T. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06805 (2007).
Meehl, G. A., Chung, C. T. Y., Arblaster, J. M., Holland, M. M. & Bitz, C. M. Tropical decadal variability and the rate of Arctic sea ice decrease. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 11,326–11,333 (2018).
Stammerjohn, S., Massom, R., Rind, D. & Martinson, D. Regions of rapid sea ice change: An inter-hemispheric seasonal comparison. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06501 (2012).
Jacobs, S. S. & Comiso, J. C. Climate variability in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. J. Clim. 10, 697–709 (1997).
Liu, Z. & Wu, L. Atmospheric response to North Pacific SST: the role of ocean–atmosphere coupling. J. Clim. 17, 1859–1882 (2004).
Smith, R. C. & Stammerjohn, S. E. Variations of surface air temperature and sea-ice extent in the western Antarctic Peninsula region. Ann. Glaciol. 33, 493–500 (2001).
Yuan, X. & Martinson, D. G. Antarctic sea ice extent variability and its global connectivity. J. Clim. 13, 1697–1717 (2000).
Parkinson, C. L. Southern Ocean sea ice and its wider linkages: insights revealed from models and observations. Antarctic Sci. 16, 387–400 (2004).
Stammerjohn, S. & Smith, R. Opposing Southern Ocean climate patterns as revealed by trends in regional sea ice coverage. Clim. Change 37, 617–639 (1997).
Holland, M. M., Landrum, L., Raphael, M. N. & Kwok, R. The regional, seasonal, and lagged influence of the Amundsen sea low on Antarctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 11227–11234 (2018).
Holland, P. R. & Kwok, R. Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift. Nat. Geosci. 5, 872–875 (2012).
Hosking, J. S., Orr, A., Marshall, G. J., Turner, J. & Phillips, T. The influence of the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas low on the climate of West Antarctica and its representation in coupled climate model simulations. J. Clim. 26, 6633–6648 (2013).
Haumann, F. A., Notz, D. & Schmidt, H. Anthropogenic influence on recent circulation-driven Antarctic sea ice changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 8429–8437 (2014).
Kwok, R., Pang, S. S., Kacimi, S. & Carmack, E. C. Sea ice drift in the Southern Ocean: Regional patterns, variability, and trends. Elementa Sci. Anthrop. 5, 32 (2017).
Raphael, M. N. & Holland, M. M. Twentieth century simulation of the Southern Hemisphere climate in coupled models. Part 1: Large scale circulation variability. Clim. Dyn. 26, 217–228 (2006).
Turner, J. et al. Atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions in the Amundsen Sea embayment, West Antarctica. Rev. Geophys. 55, 235–276 (2017).
Goosse, H. & Zunz, V. Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback. Cryosphere 8, 453–470 (2014).
Bintanja, R., Van Oldenborgh, G., Drijfhout, S., Wouters, B. & Katsman, C. Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion. Nat. Geosci. 6, 376–379 (2013).
Haumann, F. A., Gruber, N. & Münnich, M. Sea-ice induced Southern Ocean subsurface warming and surface cooling in a warming climate. AGU Adv. 1, e2019AV000132 (2020).
Schlosser, E., Haumann, F. A. & Raphael, M. N. Atmospheric influences on the anomalous 2016 Antarctic sea ice decay. Cryosphere 12, 1103–1119 (2018).
Wang, Z., Turner, J., Wu, Y. & Liu, C. Rapid decline of total antarctic sea ice extent during 2014–16 controlled by wind-driven sea ice drift. J. Clim. 32, 5381–5395 (2019).
Purich, A. & England, M. H. Tropical teleconnections to Antarctic sea ice during austral spring 2016 in coupled pacemaker experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 6848–6858 (2019).
Hu, S. & Fedorov, A. V. The extreme El Niño of 2015–2016 and the end of global warming hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3816–3824 (2017).
Thoma, M., Greatbatch, R. J., Kadow, C. & Gerdes, R. Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 6454–6461 (2015).
Armour, K. C., Marshall, J., Scott, J. R., Donohoe, A. & Newsom, E. R. Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport. Nat. Geosci. 9, 549–554 (2016).
Böning, C. W., Dispert, A., Visbeck, M., Rintoul, S. & Schwarzkopf, F. U. The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change. Nat. Geosci. 1, 864–869 (2008).
Giglio, D. & Johnson, G. C. Middepth decadal warming and freshening in the South Atlantic. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 122, 973–979 (2017).
Gille, S. T. Warming of the Southern Ocean since the 1950s. Science 295, 1275–1277 (2002).
Purkey, S. G. & Johnson, G. C. Warming of global abyssal and deep Southern Ocean waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to global heat and sea level rise budgets. J. Clim. 23, 6336–6351 (2010).
Talley, L. et al. Changes in ocean heat, carbon content, and ventilation: a review of the first decade of GO-SHIP global repeat hydrography. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 8, 185–215 (2016).
Cazenave, A. & Llovel, W. Contemporary sea level rise. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2, 145–173 (2010).
Stammer, D., Cazenave, A., Ponte, R. M. & Tamisiea, M. E. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 5, 21–46 (2013).
Swart, N. C., Gille, S. T., Fyfe, J. C. & Gillett, N. P. Recent Southern Ocean warming and freshening driven by greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion. Nat. Geosci. 11, 836–841 (2018).
Cai, W., Cowan, T., Godfrey, S. & Wijffels, S. Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean. J. Clim. 23, 197–206 (2010).
Fan, T., Deser, C. & Schneider, D. P. Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 2419–2426 (2014).
Meredith, M. P. & King, J. C. Rapid climate change in the ocean west of the Antarctic Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L19604 (2005).
Cook, A. J. et al. Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula. Science 353, 283–286 (2016).
Martinson, D. G., Stammerjohn, S. E., Iannuzzi, R. A., Smith, R. C. & Vernet, M. Western Antarctic Peninsula physical oceanography and spatio–temporal variability. Deep. Sea Res. Part II Top. Stud. Oceanogr. 55, 1964–1987 (2008).
Spence, P. et al. Localized rapid warming of West Antarctic subsurface waters by remote winds. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 595–603 (2017).
Holland, P. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A. & Steig, E. J. West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing. Nat. Geosci. 12, 718–724 (2019).
Jenkins, A. et al. West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability. Nat. Geosci. 11, 733–738 (2018).
Thoma, M., Jenkins, A., Holland, D. & Jacobs, S. Modelling circumpolar deep water intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18602 (2008).
Auger, M., Morrow, R., Kestenare, E., Sallée, J.-B. & Cowley, R. Southern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability. Nat. Commun. 12, 514 (2021).
Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., Timmermann, R., Determann, J. & Rae, J. Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current. Nature 485, 225–228 (2012).
Jacobs, S. et al. The Amundsen Sea and the Antarctic ice sheet. Oceanography 25, 154–163 (2012).
Durack, P. J., Wijffels, S. E. & Matear, R. J. Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000. Science 336, 455–458 (2012).
Helm, K. P., Bindoff, N. L. & Church, J. A. Changes in the global hydrological-cycle inferred from ocean salinity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L18701 (2010).
Purkey, S. G. & Johnson, G. C. Antarctic Bottom Water warming and freshening: Contributions to sea level rise, ocean freshwater budgets, and global heat gain. J. Clim. 26, 6105–6122 (2013).
van Wijk, E. M. & Rintoul, S. R. Freshening drives contraction of Antarctic bottom water in the Australian Antarctic Basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 1657–1664 (2014).
Swart, N. & Fyfe, J. The influence of recent Antarctic ice sheet retreat on simulated sea ice area trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 4328–4332 (2013).
Dotto, T. S. et al. Variability of the Ross Gyre, Southern Ocean: drivers and responses revealed by satellite altimetry. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 6195–6204 (2018).
Meijers, A., Cerovečki, I., King, B. A. & Tamsitt, V. A see-saw in Pacific subantarctic mode water formation driven by atmospheric modes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 13152–13160 (2019).
Pritchard, H. et al. Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves. Nature 484, 502–505 (2012).
Rignot, E. et al. Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 1095–1103 (2019).
Shepherd, A. et al. Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation and mass. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 8174–8183 (2019).
Scott, R. C., Nicolas, J. P., Bromwich, D. H., Norris, J. R. & Lubin, D. Meteorological drivers and large-scale climate forcing of West Antarctic surface melt. J. Clim. 32, 665–684 (2019).
Wouters, B. et al. Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula. Science 348, 899–903 (2015).
Mohajerani, Y., Velicogna, I. & Rignot, E. Mass loss of Totten and Moscow University glaciers, East Antarctica, using regionally optimized GRACE mascons. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 7010–7018 (2018).
Jenkins, A. et al. Decadal ocean forcing and Antarctic ice sheet response: Lessons from the Amundsen Sea. Oceanography 29, 106–117 (2016).
Gudmundsson, G. H., Paolo, F. S., Adusumilli, S. & Fricker, H. A. Instantaneous Antarctic ice sheet mass loss driven by thinning ice shelves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 13903–13909 (2019).
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E. & Medley, B. Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica. Science 344, 735–738 (2014).
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E. & Scheuchl, B. Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 1576–1584 (2014).
Seroussi, H. et al. Continued retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, controlled by bed topography and ocean circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 6191–6199 (2017).
Davis, P. E. et al. Variability in basal melting beneath Pine Island Ice Shelf on weekly to monthly timescales. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 123, 8655–8669 (2018).
Kimura, S. et al. Oceanographic controls on the variability of ice-shelf basal melting and circulation of glacial meltwater in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 122, 10131–10155 (2017).
Berthier, E., Scambos, T. A. & Shuman, C. A. Mass loss of Larsen B tributary glaciers (Antarctic Peninsula) unabated since 2002. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L13501 (2012).
Minchew, B. M., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gardner, A. S., Paolo, F. S. & Fricker, H. A. Modeling the dynamic response of outlet glaciers to observed ice-shelf thinning in the Bellingshausen Sea Sector, West Antarctica. J. Glaciol. 64, 333–342 (2018).
Royston, S. & Gudmundsson, G. H. Changes in ice-shelf buttressing following the collapse of Larsen A Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and the resulting impact on tributaries. J. Glaciol. 62, 905–911 (2016).
Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C., Fahnestock, M. & Bohlander, J. The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula. J. Glaciol. 46, 516–530 (2000).
Barrand, N. et al. Trends in Antarctic Peninsula surface melting conditions from observations and regional climate modeling. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 118, 315–330 (2013).
Massom, R. A. et al. Antarctic ice shelf disintegration triggered by sea ice loss and ocean swell. Nature 558, 383–389 (2018).
Bronselaer, B. et al. Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater. Nature 564, 53–58 (2018).
Hunke, E. C. & Comeau, D. Sea ice and iceberg dynamic interaction. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 116, C05008 (2011).
Jeong, H. et al. Impacts of ice-shelf melting on water-mass transformation in the Southern Ocean from E3SM simulations. J. Clim. 33, 5787–5807 (2020).
Stern, A., Adcroft, A. & Sergienko, O. The effects of Antarctic iceberg calving-size distribution in a global climate model. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 121, 5773–5788 (2016).
Frölicher, T. L. et al. Dominance of the Southern Ocean in anthropogenic carbon and heat uptake in CMIP5 models. J. Clim. 28, 862–886 (2015).
Silvano, A. et al. Recent recovery of Antarctic Bottom Water formation in the Ross Sea driven by climate anomalies. Nat. Geosci. 13, 780–786 (2020).
Marshall, J. & Speer, K. Closure of the meridional overturning circulation through Southern Ocean upwelling. Nat. Geosci. 5, 171–180 (2012).
Landschützer, P. et al. The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. Science 349, 1221–1224 (2015).
Sigman, D. M., Hain, M. P. & Haug, G. H. The polar ocean and glacial cycles in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Nature 466, 47–55 (2010).
Rye, C. D. et al. Rapid sea-level rise along the Antarctic margins in response to increased glacial discharge. Nat. Geosci. 7, 732–735 (2014).
Chen, X. & Tung, K.-K. Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature 559, 387–391 (2018).
Roemmich, D. et al. Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 240–245 (2015).
Chen, X. et al. The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 492–495 (2017).
Armitage, T. W., Kwok, R., Thompson, A. F. & Cunningham, G. Dynamic topography and sea level anomalies of the Southern Ocean: Variability and teleconnections. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 123, 613–630 (2018).
Cai, W. Antarctic ozone depletion causes an intensification of the Southern Ocean super-gyre circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L03712 (2006).
Xie, S.-P. et al. Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Clim. 23, 966–986 (2010).
Cai, W. et al. ENSO and greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 849–859 (2015).
Cai, W. et al. More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming. Nature 488, 365–369 (2012).
Cai, W. et al. Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming. Nature 585, 68–73 (2020).
Maher, N., Matei, D., Milinski, S. & Marotzke, J. ENSO change in climate projections: Forced response or internal variability? Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 390–311,398 (2018).
Zheng, X.-T., Hui, C. & Yeh, S.-W. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability. Clim. Dyn. 50, 4019–4035 (2018).
Cai, W. et al. Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming. Nature 564, 201–206 (2018).
Jin, F.-F. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 811–829 (1997).
Hui, C. & Zheng, X.-T. Uncertainty in Indian Ocean dipole response to global warming: The role of internal variability. Clim. Dyn. 51, 3597–3611 (2018).
Zheng, X.-T. et al. Indian Ocean dipole response to global warming in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. J. Clim. 26, 6067–6080 (2013).
Cai, W. et al. Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 27–32 (2021).
Cai, W. et al. Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South America. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1, 215–231 (2020).
Bonfils, C. J. et al. Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate. J. Clim. 28, 9997–10013 (2015).
Chen, Z., Gan, B., Wu, L. & Jia, F. Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn. 50, 4379–4403 (2018).
Huang, P. Time-varying response of ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 models. Part I: Multimodel ensemble results. J. Clim. 29, 5763–5778 (2016).
Yan, Z. et al. Eastward shift and extension of ENSO-induced tropical precipitation anomalies under global warming. Sci. Adv. 6, eaax4177 (2020).
Yeh, S. W. et al. ENSO atmospheric teleconnections and their response to greenhouse gas forcing. Rev. Geophys. 56, 185–206 (2018).
Zhou, Z.-Q., Xie, S.-P., Zheng, X.-T., Liu, Q. & Wang, H. Global warming–induced changes in El Niño teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America. J. Clim. 27, 9050–9064 (2014).
Cai, W. et al. Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z (2021).
Cheng, J. et al. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 3175–3178 (2016).
Geng, T., Yang, Y. & Wu, L. On the mechanisms of Pacific decadal oscillation modulation in a warming climate. J. Clim. 32, 1443–1459 (2019).
Li, S. et al. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 30–34 (2020).
Lu, J., Vecchi, G. A. & Reichler, T. Correction to “Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L14808 (2007).
Fyfe, J., Boer, G. & Flato, G. The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 1601–1604 (1999).
Fyfe, J. C., Saenko, O. A., Zickfeld, K., Eby, M. & Weaver, A. J. The role of poleward-intensifying winds on Southern Ocean warming. J. Clim. 20, 5391–5400 (2007).
Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. & Ribbe, J. The response of the Southern Annular Mode, the East Australian Current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L23706 (2005).
Russell, J. L., Dixon, K. W., Gnanadesikan, A., Stouffer, R. J. & Toggweiler, J. The Southern Hemisphere westerlies in a warming world: Propping open the door to the deep ocean. J. Clim. 19, 6382–6390 (2006).
Bracegirdle, T. J. et al. Twenty first century changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 21, e984 (2020).
Holland, D. M., Nicholls, K. W. & Basinski, A. The Southern Ocean and its interaction with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science 367, 1326–1330 (2020).
Marzeion, B., Cogley, J. G., Richter, K. & Parkes, D. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes. Science 345, 919–921 (2014).
McMillan, M. et al. Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat-2. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3899–3905 (2014).
Riser, S. C., Swift, D. & Drucker, R. Profiling floats in SOCCOM: Technical capabilities for studying the Southern Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 123, 4055–4073 (2018).
Zilberman, N. Deep Argo: sampling the total ocean volume in state of the climate in 2016. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98, S73–S74 (2017).
Lange, B. A., Katlein, C., Nicolaus, M., Peeken, I. & Flores, H. Sea ice algae chlorophyll a concentrations derived from under-ice spectral radiation profiling platforms. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 121, 8511–8534 (2016).
Lazzara, M. A., Weidner, G. A., Keller, L. M., Thom, J. E. & Cassano, J. J. Antarctic automatic weather station program: 30 years of polar observation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 1519–1537 (2012).
Lai, C.-Y. et al. Vulnerability of Antarctica’s ice shelves to meltwater-driven fracture. Nature 584, 574–578 (2020).
Hyder, P. et al. Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors. Nat. Commun. 9, 3625 (2018).
Li, G. & Xie, S.-P. Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems. J. Clim. 27, 1765–1780 (2014).
Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S.-P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501, 403–407 (2013).
Kay, J. E. et al. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 1333–1349 (2015).
Lenton, T. M. et al. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786–1793 (2008).
Steffen, W. et al. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347, 1259855 (2015).
DeConto, R. M. & Pollard, D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591–597 (2016).
Fretwell, P. et al. Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica. Cryosphere 7, 375–393 (2013).
Morlighem, M. et al. Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nat. Geosci. 13, 132–137 (2020).
Clem, K. R., Renwick, J. A. & McGregor, J. Autumn cooling of Western East Antarctica linked to the tropical Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123, 89–107 (2018).
Marshall, G. J. & Thompson, D. W. The signatures of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability in Antarctic surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 121, 3276–3289 (2016).
England, M. R., Polvani, L. M., Sun, L. & Deser, C. Tropical climate responses to projected Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice loss. Nat. Geosci. 13, 275–381 (2020).
Hwang, Y. T., Xie, S. P., Deser, C. & Kang, S. M. Connecting tropical climate change with Southern Ocean heat uptake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 9449–9457 (2017).
Zhang, X., Deser, C. & Sun, L. Is there a tropical response to recent observed Southern Ocean cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2020GL091235 (2020).
Cohen, J. L., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M. A., Alexeev, V. A. & Cherry, J. E. Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 014007 (2012).
Mori, M., Watanabe, M., Shiogama, H., Inoue, J. & Kimoto, M. Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nat. Geosci. 7, 869–873 (2014).
Zhang, J., Tian, W., Chipperfield, M. P., Xie, F. & Huang, J. Persistent shift of the Arctic polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent in recent decades. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 1094–1099 (2016).
Rayner, N. A. et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108, 4407 (2003).
Turner, J. et al. The SCAR READER project: Toward a high-quality database of mean Antarctic meteorological observations. J. Clim. 17, 2890–2898 (2004).
Peng, G., Meier, W. N., Scott, D. & Savoie, M. A long-term and reproducible passive microwave sea ice concentration data record for climate studies and monitoring. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 5, 311–318 (2013).
Good, S. A., Martin, M. J. & Rayner, N. A. EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 118, 6704–6716 (2013).
Cheng, L. & Zhu, J. Benefits of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble in reconstructing historical ocean subsurface temperature variations. J. Clim. 29, 5393–5416 (2016).
Ishii, M. et al. Accuracy of global upper ocean heat content estimation expected from present observational data sets. Sola 13, 163–167 (2017).
Feng, X. et al. A multidecadal-scale tropically driven global teleconnection over the past millennium and its recent strengthening. J. Clim. 34, 2549–2565 (2021).
Huang, Y., Ding, Q., Dong, X., Xi, B. & Baxter, I. Summertime low clouds mediate the impact of the large-scale circulation on Arctic sea ice. Commun. Earth Environ. 2, 38 (2021).
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., Branstator, G. & Phillips, A. S. Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 911–916 (2014).
Grunseich, G. & Wang, B. Arctic sea ice patterns driven by the Asian summer monsoon. J. Clim. 29, 9097–9112 (2016).
Wu, B. & Francis, J. A. Summer Arctic cold anomaly dynamically linked to East Asian heat waves. J. Clim. 32, 1137–1150 (2019).
Wu, B., Zhang, R., Wang, B. & D’Arrigo, R. On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L09501 (2009).
Labe, Z., Peings, Y. & Magnusdottir, G. The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 7663–7671 (2019).
Lee, S., Gong, T., Johnson, N. C., Feldstein, S. B. & Pollard, D. On the possible link between tropical convection and the Northern Hemisphere Arctic surface air temperature change between 1958 and 2001. J. Clim. 24, 4350–4367 (2011).
Martin, Z. et al. The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the Madden–Julian oscillation. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 477–489 (2021).
Steig, E. J. et al. Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years. Nat. Geosci. 6, 372–375 (2013).
Shakun, J. D. et al. Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature 484, 49–54 (2012).
Tudhope, A. W. et al. Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle. Science 291, 1511–1517 (2001).
Turney, C. S. et al. Millennial and orbital variations of El Nino/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period. Nature 428, 306–310 (2004).
Ford, H. L., Ravelo, A. C. & Polissar, P. J. Reduced El Niño–Southern Oscillation during the last glacial maximum. Science 347, 255–258 (2015).
Merkel, U., Prange, M. & Schulz, M. ENSO variability and teleconnections during glacial climates. Quat. Sci. Rev. 29, 86–100 (2010).
Sadekov, A. Y. et al. Palaeoclimate reconstructions reveal a strong link between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific mean state. Nat. Commun. 4, 2692 (2013).
Jones, T. R. et al. Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography. Nature 554, 351–355 (2018).
Blunier, T. et al. Asynchrony of Antarctic and Greenland climate change during the last glacial period. Nature 394, 739–743 (1998).
Dansgaard, W. et al. A new Greenland deep ice core. Science 218, 1273–1277 (1982).
Menviel, L. C., Skinner, L. C., Tarasov, L. & Tzedakis, P. C. An ice–climate oscillatory framework for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1, 677–693 (2020).
Kang, S. M., Frierson, D. M. & Held, I. M. The tropical response to extratropical thermal forcing in an idealized GCM: The importance of radiative feedbacks and convective parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci. 66, 2812–2827 (2009).
Deplazes, G. et al. Links between tropical rainfall and North Atlantic climate during the last glacial period. Nat. Geosci. 6, 213–217 (2013).
Peterson, L. C., Haug, G. H., Hughen, K. A. & Röhl, U. Rapid changes in the hydrologic cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the last glacial. Science 290, 1947–1951 (2000).
Wang, X. et al. Interhemispheric anti-phasing of rainfall during the last glacial period. Quat. Sci. Rev. 25, 3391–3403 (2006).
Ceppi, P., Hwang, Y. T., Liu, X., Frierson, D. M. & Hartmann, D. L. The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 5136–5146 (2013).
Chiang, J. C., Lee, S.-Y., Putnam, A. E. & Wang, X. South Pacific Split Jet, ITCZ shifts, and atmospheric North–South linkages during abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 406, 233–246 (2014).
Markle, B. R. et al. Global atmospheric teleconnections during Dansgaard–Oeschger events. Nat. Geosci. 10, 36–40 (2017).
Buizert, C. et al. Abrupt ice-age shifts in southern westerly winds and Antarctic climate forced from the north. Nature 563, 681–685 (2018).
Pedro, J. B. et al. The spatial extent and dynamics of the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Nat. Geosci. 9, 51–55 (2016).
Rae, J. W. et al. CO2 storage and release in the deep Southern Ocean on millennial to centennial timescales. Nature 562, 569–573 (2018).
This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0605700). X.Li is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFC1509100), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 41676190 and no. 41825012), and the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CXPT2020015). G.A.M. was supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of Earth and Environmental System Modeling in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1947282 and by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977. X.Y. is supported by the LDEO endowment for this work. M.R. is supported by the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. NSF-OPP-1745089). D.M.H. is supported by the Center for Global Sea Level Change (CSLC) of NYU Abu Dhabi Research Institute (G1204) in the UAE and NSF PLR-1739003. Q.D. is supported by Climate Variability & Predictability (NA18OAR4310424) as part of NOAA’s Climate Program Office. R.L.F. was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. U.S. NSF PLR-1744998. B.R.M. was supported, in part, by a Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship. D.H.B. was supported by the U.S. NSF award OPP-1823135. S.P.X. was supported by the National Science Foundation (AGS-2105654, AGS-1934392 and AGS-1637450). S.T.G. was supported by the U.S. NSF awards PLR-1425989 and OPP-1936222, and by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (award DE-SC0020073). M.A.L. is supported by the Office of Polar Programs, National Science Foundation grant (no. 1924730). X.Chen is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFC1509100) and the National Science Foundation of China (no. 41825012). S.E.S. was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. U.S. NSF PLR-1440435. M.M.H. was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. U.S. NSF OPP-1724748. S.F.P. is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research programme. Z.W. is supported by China National Natural Science Foundation (NSFC) project nos. 41941007 and 41876220. E.P.G. is supported by the NSF grant AGS-1852727. H.G. is a research director within the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique-FNRS. C.Y. is supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) (grant NRF-2019R1C1C1003161).
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review information
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment thanks the anonymous reviewers for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
- Southern Annular Mode
(SAM). The leading mode of extratropical Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, characterized by pressure variability between the mid and high southern latitudes, influencing the strength and position of the mid-latitude jet.
- Anthropogenic forcings
Climatic forcings linked to anthropogenic factors, typically, increased greenhouse gas concentrations associated with fossil fuel burning, sulfate aerosols produced as an industrial by-product, stratospheric ozone depletion and human-induced changes in land surface properties.
- Amundsen Sea Low
(ASL). A climatological low-pressure centre located over the southern end of the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of West Antarctica, that exhibits substantial variability in strength, influencing the climate of West Antarctica and the adjacent oceanic environment.
- El Niño–Southern Oscillation
(ENSO). An irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean on interannual timescales; the warming phase, El Niño, is characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperature over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, together with high and low surface pressure in the tropical western and eastern Pacific, respectively, and the cooling phase, La Niña, with generally opposite conditions.
- Rossby wave trains
A series of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices with a typical spatial scale of a thousand kilometres, superimposed on the uniform west-to-east flow, making up a succession of wave packages occurring at periodic intervals.
- Antarctic Circumpolar Wave
Large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns, propagating eastward around the Southern Ocean with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, on interannual and sub-decadal timescales. Features can be detected in sea level pressure, sea surface height, sea surface temperature and atmospheric/oceanic circulation.
- Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
(IPO). A climate mode describing changes in Pacific sea surface temperature on 20–30-year timescales; positive phases are characterized by an anomalous warming over the tropical eastern Pacific and cooling patterns over the extratropical–mid-latitude western Pacific.
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
(AMO). A climate mode that affects the sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean on multidecadal timescales, with an estimated period of ~60–70 years, and an amplitude of the spatial mean temperature up to 0.5°C.
- Hadley circulation
Vertical–meridional overturning atmospheric circulation over the low-latitude troposphere, characterized by rising motion near the equator, with air flowing poleward at the upper troposphere and descending over the subtropics.
- Subtropical jet
A belt of strong upper-troposphere westerly winds in the subtropics, affecting precipitation and temperatures over the tropics and mid-latitudes.
A certain layer of atmosphere, usually acted upon by the mean jet, in which the wave is trapped due to refraction, just as an electromagnetic wave propagates in a metal waveguide.
- Thermal wind balance
The balance between vertical wind shear and horizontal gradients of virtual temperature in the atmosphere.
- Walker circulation
Vertical–zonal overturning atmospheric circulation over the tropical belt; the dominant Pacific Walker cell is characterized by easterly winds at the lower troposphere, westerly winds at the upper troposphere, rising motion over the western Pacific and descending motion over the eastern Pacific.
- South Pacific Convergence Zone
(SPCZ). A band of low-level convergence, cloudiness and precipitation extending from the Western Pacific Warm Pool at the Maritime Continent south-eastwards of the French Polynesia and as far as the Cook Islands (160°W, 20°S).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Li, X., Cai, W., Meehl, G.A. et al. Tropical teleconnection impacts on Antarctic climate changes. Nat Rev Earth Environ 2, 680–698 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00204-5
This article is cited by
Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes
Nature Climate Change (2023)
Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2023)
Weakened relationship between ENSO and Antarctic sea ice in recent decades
Climate Dynamics (2023)
Externally forced symmetric warming in the Arctic and Antarctic during the second half of the twentieth century
Geoscience Letters (2022)
Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability
Nature Climate Change (2022)