Tropical fisheries substantially contribute to the well-being of societies in both the tropics and the extratropics, the latter through ‘telecoupling’ — linkages between distant human–natural systems. Tropical marine habitats and fish stocks, however, are vulnerable to the physical and biogeochemical oceanic changes associated with rising greenhouse gases. These changes to fish stocks, and subsequent impacts on fish production, have substantial implications for the UN Sustainable Development Goals. In this Review, we synthesize the effects of climate change on tropical marine fisheries, highlighting the socio-economic impacts to both tropical and extratropical nations, and discuss potential adaptation measures. Driven by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and sea-level rise, the maximum catch potential of tropical fish stocks in some tropical exclusive economic zones is projected to decline by up to 40% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, relative to the 2000s. Climate-driven reductions in fisheries production and alterations in fish-species composition will subsequently increase the vulnerability of tropical countries with limited adaptive capacity. Thus, given the billions of people dependent on tropical marine fisheries in some capacity, there is a clear need to account for the effects of climate change on these resources and identify practical adaptations when building climate-resilient sustainable-development pathways.
Tropical oceans will be where many of the first anthropogenic signals in physical and biogeochemical variables will exceed natural variability, with resulting impacts on socioecological systems.
Maximum catch potential in some tropical exclusive economic zones is projected to decline by up to 40% by the 2050s under continued high greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change impacts on tropical fisheries will affect sustainable development of both local economies and communities, and extratropical regions through ‘telecoupling’ of human–natural systems such as seafood trade and distant-water fishing.
The key impacts for developing tropical nations will be reduced capacity to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals related to food security (SDG2), poverty alleviation (SDG1) and economic growth (SDG8).
Effective and practical adaptation solutions for both small-scale and industrial fisheries, built on the involvement of all appropriate stakeholders and supporting policies, are needed to sustain fisheries productivity in the tropics.
Many substantial predicted biological and socio-economic impacts on tropical fisheries would be prevented if greenhouse gas-mitigation actions keep global atmospheric warming below 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.
Subscribe to Journal
Get full journal access for 1 year
only $4.92 per issue
All prices are NET prices.
VAT will be added later in the checkout.
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Rent or Buy article
Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.
All prices are NET prices.
Dyck, A. J. & Sumaila, U. R. Economic impact of ocean fish populations in the global fishery. J. Bioeconomics 12, 227–243 (2010).
Golden, C. D. et al. Nutrition: fall in fish catch threatens human health. Nature 534, 317–320 (2016).
Teh, L. C. L. & Pauly, D. Who brings in the fish? The relative contribution of small-scale and industrial fisheries to food security in Southeast Asia. Front. Mar. Sci. 5, 44 (2018).
Gillett, R. Fisheries in the Economies of Pacific Island Countries and Territories (Pacific Community, 2016).
Kawarazuka, N. & Béné, C. Linking small-scale fisheries and aquaculture to household nutritional security: an overview. Food Secur. 2, 343–357 (2010).
Sale, P. F. et al. Transforming management of tropical coastal seas to cope with challenges of the 21st century. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 85, 8–23 (2014).
Bell, J. D. et al. Planning the use of fish for food security in the Pacific. Mar. Policy 33, 64–76 (2009).
Hicks, C. C. et al. Harnessing global fisheries to tackle micronutrient deficiencies. Nature 574, 95–98 (2019).
Kennedy, G., Nantel, G. & Shetty, P. The scourge of “hidden hunger”: global dimensions of micronutrient deficiencies. Food Nutr. Agric. 32, 8–16 (2003).
Teh, L. S. L., Teh, L. C. L. & Sumaila, U. R. Quantifying the overlooked socio-economic contribution of small-scale fisheries in Sabah, Malaysia. Fish. Res. 110, 450–458 (2011).
Pauly, D. & Zeller, D. Sea Around Us Concepts, Design and Data. Sea Around Us http://www.seaaroundus.org (2015).
Béné, C. Small-scale fisheries: assessing their contribution to rural livelihoods in developing countries. FAO Fish. Circ. 1008, 46 (2006).
Williams, P. & Reid, C. Overview of tuna fisheries in the western and central Pacific Ocean, including economic conditions-2017. WCPFC Sci. Comm. SC14-2018/GN-WP-01 66pp (2018).
Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA). Tuna Development Indicators 2016. https://ffa.int/system/files/FFA Tuna Development Indicators Brochure.pdf (Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency, 2017).
Teh, L. C. L. & Sumaila, U. R. Contribution of marine fisheries to worldwide employment. Fish Fish. 14, 77–88 (2013).
Jentoft, S. Life above water—essays on human experiences of small-scale fisheries. TBTI Global Book Series 1 (2019).
Kurien, J. SSF guidelines: the beauty of the small. Samudra Rep. 72, 30–36 (2016).
Teh, L. S. L., Teh, L. C. L. & Sumaila, U. R. A global estimate of the number of coral reef fishers. PLoS One 8, e65397 (2013).
Alberti, M. et al. Research on coupled human and natural systems (CHANS): approach, challenges, and strategies. Bull. Ecol. Soc. Am. 92, 218–228 (2011).
Liu, J., Hull, V., Luo, J., Yang, W. & Liu, W. Multiple telecouplings and their complex interrelationships. Ecol. Soc. 20, 44 (2015).
Cinner, J. & McClanahan, T. R. Socioeconomic factors that lead to overfishing in small-scale coral reef fisheries of Papua New Guinea. Environ. Conserv. 33, 73–80 (2006).
McClanahan, T. R., Hicks, C. C. & Darling, E. S. Malthusian overfishing and efforts to overcome it on Kenyan coral reefs. Ecol. Appl. 18, 1516–1529 (2008).
Gardner, T. A., Côté, I. M., Gill, J. A., Grant, A. & Watkinson, A. R. Long-term region-wide declines in Caribbean corals. Science 301, 958–960 (2003).
Islam, M. S. & Tanaka, M. Impacts of pollution on coastal and marine ecosystems including coastal and marine fisheries and approach for management: a review and synthesis. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 48, 624–649 (2004).
Hodgson, G. & Dixon, J. A. Logging Versus Fisheries and Tourism in Palawan: An Environmental and Economic Analysis (East-West Environment and Policy Institute, 1988).
Hodgson, G. & Dixon, J. A. in Resources & Environment in Asia’s Marine Sector (ed. Marsh, J. B.) 421–446 (CRC, 1992).
Côté, I. M., Green, S. J. & Hixon, M. A. Predatory fish invaders: insights from Indo-Pacific lionfish in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. Biol. Conserv. 164, 50–61 (2013).
Lehodey, P., Senina, I., Calmettes, B., Hampton, J. & Nicol, S. Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries. Clim. Change 119, 95–109 (2013).
Asch, R. G., Cheung, W. W. L. & Reygondeau, G. Future marine ecosystem drivers, biodiversity, and fisheries maximum catch potential in Pacific Island countries and territories under climate change. Mar. Policy 88, 285–294 (2018).
Jones, M. C. & Cheung, W. W. L. Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 72, 741–752 (2015).
Lam, V. W. Y., Cheung, W. W. L., Reygondeau, G. & Sumaila, U. R. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change. Sci. Rep. 6, 32607 (2016).
Cinner, J. E. et al. Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 117–123 (2018).
Barange, M. et al. Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture. Synthesis of Current Knowledge, Adaptation and Mitigation Options (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2018).
Pörtner, H.-O. et al. IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019).
Bindoff, N. L. et al. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: From Global to Regional (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013).
Bindoff, N. L., Cheung, W. W. L. & Kairo, J. G. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Ch. 5 (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019).
Rodgers, K. B., Lin, J. & Frölicher, T. L. Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model. Biogeosciences 12, 3301–3320 (2015).
Frölicher, T. L., Rodgers, K. B., Stock, C. A. & Cheung, W. W. L. Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 30, 1224–1243 (2016).
Pörtner, H.-O. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Ch. 6 (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 411–484 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Abram, N. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Ch. 1 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019).
Cheng, L. et al. Record-setting ocean warmth continued in 2019. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 37, 137–142 (2020).
Huang, B. et al. Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST. v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons. J. Clim. 28, 911–930 (2015).
Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Hausfather, Z. & Trenberth, K. E. How fast are the oceans warming. Science 363, 128–129 (2019).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (ed. Pörtner, H.-O. et al) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019).
Xie, S.-P. et al. Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Clim. 23, 966–986 (2010).
Hobday, A. J. et al. A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Prog. Oceanogr. 141, 227–238 (2016).
Frölicher, T. L. & Laufkötter, C. Emerging risks from marine heat waves. Nat. Commun. 9, 650 (2018).
Smale, D. A. et al. Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 306–312 (2019).
Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature 543, 373–377 (2017).
Oliver, E. C. J. et al. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nat. Commun. 9, 1324 (2018).
Holbrook, N. J. et al. Keeping pace with marine heatwaves. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0068-4 (2020).
Frölicher, T. L., Fischer, E. M. & Gruber, N. Marine heatwaves under global warming. Nature 560, 360–364 (2018).
Collins, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Ch. 6 (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019).
Cai, W. et al. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 111–116 (2014).
Capotondi, A., Alexander, M. A., Bond, N. A., Curchitser, E. N. & Scott, J. D. Enhanced upper ocean stratification with climate change in the CMIP3 models. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 117, C04031 (2012).
Ganachaud, A. S. et al. in Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change (eds Bell, J. D., Johnson, J. E. & Hobday, A. J.) 101–187 (Secretariat of the Pacific Community, 2011).
Stramma, L., Johnson, G. C., Sprintall, J. & Mohrholz, V. Expanding oxygen-minimum zones in the tropical oceans. Science 320, 655–658 (2008).
Ito, T., Minobe, S., Long, M. C. & Deutsch, C. Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958–2015. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 4214–4223 (2017).
Schmidtko, S., Stramma, L. & Visbeck, M. Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades. Nature 542, 335–339 (2017).
Helm, K. P., Bindoff, N. L. & Church, J. A. Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L23602 (2011).
Bopp, L. et al. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models. Biogeosciences 10, 6225–6245 (2013).
Cocco, V. et al. Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections. Biogeosciences 10, 1849–1868 (2013).
Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A. & Kleypas, J. A. Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 1, 169–192 (2009).
Gattuso, J.-P. et al. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios. Science 349, aac4722 (2015).
Burger, F. A., Frölicher, T. L. & John, J. G. Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2. Biogeosci. Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-22 (2020).
Oppenheimer, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Ch. 4 (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019).
Moon, J. H., Song, Y. T., Bromirski, P. D. & Miller, A. J. Multidecadal regional sea level shifts in the Pacific over 1958–2008. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 118, 7024–7035 (2013).
Han, W. et al. Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades. Clim. Dyn. 43, 1357–1379 (2014).
Thompson, P. R. & Mitchum, G. T. Coherent sea level variability on the North Atlantic western boundary. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 119, 5676–5689 (2014).
England, M. H. et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014).
Hamlington, B. D. et al. Uncovering an anthropogenic sea-level rise signal in the Pacific Ocean. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 782–785 (2014).
McGregor, S. et al. Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 888–892 (2014).
Le Borgne, R. et al. in Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change (eds Bell, J. D., Johnson, J. E. & Hobday, A. J.) 189–249 (Secretariat of the Pacific Community, 2011).
Steinacher, M. et al. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis. Biogeosciences 7, 979–1005 (2010).
Laufkötter, C. et al. Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models. Biogeosciences 12, 6955–6984 (2015).
Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P. & John, J. G. Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate. Biogeosciences 11, 7125–7135 (2014).
Cheung, W. W. L. & Pauly, D. in Explaining Ocean Warming: Causes, Scale, Effects and Consequences (eds Laffoley D. & Baxter J. M.) 239–253 (IUCN, 2016).
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. The Coral Triangle and Climate Change: Ecosystems, People and Societies at Risk (WWF Australia, 2009).
Hughes, T. P. et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene. Science 359, 80–83 (2018).
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. in Global Warming of 1.5°C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2018).
Li, X., Bellerby, R., Craft, C. & Widney, S. E. Coastal wetland loss, consequences, and challenges for restoration. Anthropocene Coasts 1, 1–15 (2018).
Pörtner, H.-O. et al. Climate induced temperature effects on growth performance, fecundity and recruitment in marine fish: developing a hypothesis for cause and effect relationships in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and common eelpout (Zoarces viviparus). Cont. Shelf Res. 21, 1975–1997 (2001).
Pörtner, H. O. & Farrell, A. P. Physiology and climate change. Science 322, 690–692 (2008).
Pauly, D. & Cheung, W. W. L. Sound physiological knowledge and principles in modeling shrinking of fishes under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 24, e15–e26 (2018).
Pinsky, M. L., Worm, B., Fogarty, M. J., Sarmiento, J. L. & Levin, S. A. Marine taxa track local climate velocities. Science 341, 1239–1242 (2013).
Poloczanska, E. S. et al. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 919–925 (2013).
Cheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J., Sarmiento, J. L. & Pauly, D. Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 68, 1008–1018 (2011).
Perry, A. L., Low, P. J., Ellis, J. R. & Reynolds, J. D. Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308, 1912–1915 (2005).
Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y. & Pauly, D. in Modelling Present and Climate-shifted Distribution of Marine Fishes and Invertebrates 5–50 (Fisheries Centre, 2008).
Cheung, W. W. L. et al. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish Fish. 10, 235–251 (2009).
Mueter, F. J. & Litzow, M. A. Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf. Ecol. Appl. 18, 309–320 (2008).
Dulvy, N. K. et al. Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas. J. Appl. Ecol. 45, 1029–1039 (2008).
Pörtner, H.-O. Oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance: a matrix for integrating climate-related stressor effects in marine ecosystems. J. Exp. Biol. 213, 881–893 (2010).
Pauly, D. & Kinne, O. Gasping Fish and Panting Squids: Oxygen, Temperature and the Growth of Water-Breathing Animals Vol. 22 (International Ecology Institute, 2010).
Mackenzie, C. L. et al. Ocean warming, more than acidification, reduces shell strength in a commercial shellfish species during food limitation. PLoS One 9, e86764 (2014).
Rosas-Navarro, A., Langer, G. & Ziveri, P. Temperature affects the morphology and calcification of Emiliania huxleyi strains. Biogeosciences 13, 2913–2926 (2016).
Pörtner, H.-O., Bock, C. & Mark, F. C. Oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance: bridging ecology and physiology. J. Exp. Biol. 220, 2685–2696 (2017).
Daufresne, M., Lengfellner, K. & Sommer, U. Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 12788–12793 (2009).
Baudron, A. R., Needle, C. L. & Marshall, C. T. Implications of a warming North Sea for the growth of haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus. J. Fish. Biol. 78, 1874–1889 (2011).
Sheridan, J. A. & Bickford, D. Shrinking body size as an ecological response to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 1, 401–406 (2011).
Cheung, W. W. L. et al. Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 254–258 (2013).
Lotze, H. K. et al. Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 12907–12912 (2019).
Cheung, W. W. L. et al. Structural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change. Ecol. Model. 325, 57–66 (2016).
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2018).
Pauly, D. & Zeller, D. Catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining. Nat. Commun. 7, 10244 (2016).
Swartz, W., Sumaila, R. & Watson, R. Global ex-vessel fish price database revisited: a new approach for estimating ‘missing’ prices. Environ. Resour. Econ. 56, 467–480 (2013).
Pauly, D., Christensen, V., Dalsgaard, J., Froese, R. & Torres, F. Fishing down marine food webs. Science 279, 860–863 (1998).
Worm, B. et al. Rebuilding global fisheries. Science 325, 578–585 (2009).
Costello, C. et al. Status and solutions for the world’s unassessed fisheries. Science 338, 517–520 (2012).
Garcia, S. M. & Rosenberg, A. A. Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 365, 2869–2880 (2010).
Anderson, S. C., Branch, T. A., Ricard, D. & Lotze, H. K. Assessing global marine fishery status with a revised dynamic catch-based method and stock-assessment reference points. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 69, 1491–1500 (2012).
Costello, C. et al. Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 5125–5129 (2016).
Thorson, J. T., Branch, T. A. & Jensen, O. P. Using model-based inference to evaluate global fisheries status from landings, location, and life history data. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 69, 645–655 (2012).
McOwen, C. J., Cheung, W. W. L., Rykaczewski, R. R., Watson, R. A. & Wood, L. J. Is fisheries production within large marine ecosystems determined by bottom-up or top-down forcing? Fish Fish. 16, 623–632 (2015).
Stock, C. A. et al. Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, E1441–E1449 (2017).
Free, C. M. et al. Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production. Science 363, 979–983 (2019).
Cheung, W. W. L., Watson, R. & Pauly, D. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch. Nature 497, 365–368 (2013).
Cheung, W. W. L., Reygondeau, G. & Frölicher, T. L. Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5 C global warming target. Science 354, 1591–1594 (2016).
Cheung, W. W. L., Jones, M. C., Reygondeau, G. & Frölicher, T. L. Opportunities for climate-risk reduction through effective fisheries management. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 5149–5163 (2018).
Sumaila, U. R., Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Pauly, D. & Herrick, S. Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries. Nat. Clim. Change 1, 449–456 (2011).
Allison, E. H. et al. Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries. Fish Fish. 10, 173–196 (2009).
Bell, J. D. et al. Adaptations to maintain the contributions of small-scale fisheries to food security in the Pacific Islands. Mar. Policy 88, 303–314 (2018).
The Pacific Community (SPC) Implications of Climate-driven Redistribution of Tuna for Pacific Island Economies (The Pacific Community (SPC), 2019).
Blasiak, R. et al. Climate change and marine fisheries: least developed countries top global index of vulnerability. PLoS One 12, e0179632 (2017).
Srinivasan, U., Cheung, W., Watson, R. & Sumaila, U. Food security implications of global marine catch losses due to overfishing. J. Bioeconomics 12, 183–200 (2010).
Oyinlola, M. A., Reygondeau, G., Wabnitz, C. C. C. & Cheung, W. W. L. Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 2134–2148 (2020).
Froehlich, H. E., Gentry, R. R. & Halpern, B. S. Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 1745–1750 (2018).
Porter, J. R. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Ch. 7 (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 485–533 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Gaines, S. D. et al. Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change. Sci. Adv. 4, eaao1378 (2018).
Smith, M. D. et al. Sustainability and global seafood. Science 327, 784–786 (2010).
Asche, F., Bellemare, M. F., Roheim, C., Smith, M. D. & Tveteras, S. Fair enough? Food security and the international trade of seafood. World Dev. 67, 151–160 (2015).
Kurien, J. Responsible Fish Trade and Food Security (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2005).
Watson, R. A., Nichols, R., Lam, V. W. Y. & Sumaila, U. R. Global seafood trade flows and developing economies: Insights from linking trade and production. Mar. Policy 82, 41–49 (2017).
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO Yearbook of Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2017).
Gorez, B. West Africa: fishmeal, mealy deal. Samudra Rep. 78, 33–35 (2018).
Corten, A., Braham, C.-B. & Sadegh, A. S. The development of a fishmeal industry in Mauritania and its impact on the regional stocks of sardinella and other small pelagics in Northwest Africa. Fish. Res. 186, 328–336 (2017).
Merino, G., Barange, M., Mullon, C. & Rodwell, L. Impacts of global environmental change and aquaculture expansion on marine ecosystems. Glob. Environ. Change 20, 586–596 (2010).
Naylor, R. L. et al. Feeding aquaculture in an era of finite resources. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 15103–15110 (2009).
Cashion, T., Le Manach, F., Zeller, D. & Pauly, D. Most fish destined for fishmeal production are food-grade fish. Fish Fish. 18, 837–844 (2017).
New, M. B. & Wijkström, U. N. Use of fishmeal and fish oil in aquafeeds: further thoughts on the fishmeal trap. FAO Fisheries Circular No. 975 (2002).
Jackson, A. & Shepherd, J. in Advancing the Aquaculture Agenda: Workshop Proceedings 331–343 (OECD, 2010).
Kristofersson, D. & Anderson, J. L. Is there a relationship between fisheries and farming? Interdependence of fisheries, animal production and aquaculture. Mar. Policy 30, 721–725 (2006).
Deutsch, L. et al. Feeding aquaculture growth through globalization: Exploitation of marine ecosystems for fishmeal. Glob. Environ. Change 17, 238–249 (2007).
Mullon, C. et al. Modeling the global fishmeal and fish oil markets. Nat. Resour. Model. 22, 564–609 (2009).
Merino, G. et al. Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate? Glob. Environ. Change 22, 795–806 (2012).
Liu, Y. & Sumaila, U. R. Can farmed salmon production keep growing? Mar. Policy 32, 497–501 (2008).
Pinsky, M. L. et al. Preparing ocean governance for species on the move. Science 360, 1189–1191 (2018).
Jacobs, A. China’s appetite pushes fisheries to the brink. New York Times (30 Apr 2017).
Tickler, D., Meeuwig, J. J., Palomares, M.-L., Pauly, D. & Zeller, D. Far from home: Distance patterns of global fishing fleets. Sci. Adv. 4, eaar3279 (2018).
Campling, L. Trade politics and the global production of canned tuna. Mar. Policy 69, 220–228 (2016).
Eurofish. Overview of the Spanish fisheries and aquaculture sector. https://www.eurofish.dk/spain (2019).
Arrizabalaga, H. et al. Global habitat preferences of commercially valuable tuna. Deep Sea Res. Part II Top. Stud. Oceanogr. 113, 102–112 (2015).
Erauskin-Extramiana, M. et al. Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 2043–2060 (2019).
FFA and SPC. Future of Fisheries: A Regional Roadmap for Sustainable Pacific Fisheries (FFA and SPC, 2015).
Heltberg, R., Siegel, P. B. & Jorgensen, S. L. Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: toward a ‘no-regrets’ approach. Glob. Environ. Change 19, 89–99 (2009).
Brouwer, S. et al. The Western and Central Pacific Tuna Fishery: 2018 Overview and Status of Stocks (Pacific Community, 2019).
Bell, J. D. et al. Diversifying the use of tuna to improve food security and public health in Pacific Island countries and territories. Mar. Policy 51, 584–591 (2015).
Senina, I. et al. Predicting skipjack tuna dynamics and effects of climate change using SEAPODYM with fishing and tagging data. Scientific Committee Twelfth Regular Session, Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission 1–70 (2016).
Robinson, M. Climate Justice: Hope, Resilience, and the Fight for a Sustainable Future (Bloomsbury Publishing, 2018).
United Nations. Transforming Our World: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development https://doi.org/10.1891/9780826190123.ap02 (2015).
Pecl, G. T. et al. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science 355, eaai9214 (2017).
Singh, G. G. et al. Climate impacts on the ocean are making the Sustainable Development Goals a moving target travelling away from us. People Nat. 1, 317–330 (2019).
Guillaumont, P. Assessing the economic vulnerability of small island developing states and the least developed countries. J. Dev. Stud. 46, 828–854 (2010).
Narayan, S. et al. The effectiveness, costs and coastal protection benefits of natural and nature-based defences. PLoS One 11, e0154735 (2016).
Moosavi, S. Ecological coastal protection: pathways to living shorelines. Procedia Eng. 196, 930–938 (2017).
Mutombo, K. & Ölçer, A. A three-tier framework for port infrastructure adaptation to climate change: balancing breadth and depth of knowledge. Ocean Yearb. Online 30, 564–577 (2016).
Forzieri, G. et al. Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe. Glob. Environ. Change 48, 97–107 (2018).
Beiler, M. O., Marroquin, L. & McNeil, S. State-of-the-practice assessment of climate change adaptation practices across metropolitan planning organizations pre-and post-Hurricane Sandy. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 88, 163–174 (2016).
Thorne, J. H. et al. The impact of climate change uncertainty on California’s vegetation and adaptation management. Ecosphere 8, e02021 (2017).
Ziervogel, G. & Ericksen, P. J. Adapting to climate change to sustain food security. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 1, 525–540 (2010).
Heenan, A. et al. A climate-informed, ecosystem approach to fisheries management. Mar. Policy 57, 182–192 (2015).
Poulain, F., Himes-Cornell, A. & Shelton, C. in Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture. Synthesis of Current Knowledge, Adaptation and Mitigation Options FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 627 Ch. 25 535–566 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2018).
Bell, J. et al. Impacts and effects of ocean warming on the contributions of fisheries and aquaculture to food security (IUCN, 2016).
Cochrane, K. L., Andrew, N. L. & Parma, A. M. Primary fisheries management: a minimum requirement for provision of sustainable human benefits in small-scale fisheries. Fish Fish. 12, 275–288 (2011).
Free, C. M. et al. Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries. PLoS One 15, e0224347 (2020).
Armitage, D. Adaptive capacity and community-based natural resource management. Environ. Manage. 35, 703–715 (2005).
MECM/MFMR. Solomon Islands National Plan of Action. Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security (Solomon Islands Government, 2010).
Bell, J. D. et al. Optimising the use of nearshore fish aggregating devices for food security in the Pacific Islands. Mar. Policy 56, 98–105 (2015).
Tilley, A. et al. Nearshore fish aggregating devices show positive outcomes for sustainable fisheries development in Timor-Leste. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, 487 (2019).
Mills, D. J. et al. Developing Timor-Leste’s Coastal Economy: Assessing Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options. Final Report to the Australian Government Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security National Initiative (WorldFish, 2013).
Pomeroy, R. S. Community-based and co-management institutions for sustainable coastal fisheries management in Southeast Asia. Ocean Coast. Manag. 27, 143–162 (1995).
Foale, S., Cohen, P., Januchowski-Hartley, S., Wenger, A. & Macintyre, M. Tenure and taboos: origins and implications for fisheries in the Pacific. Fish Fish. 12, 357–369 (2011).
Tompkins, E. L. & Adger, W. N. Does adaptive management of natural resources enhance resilience to climate change? Ecol. Soc. 9, 10 (2004).
Biggs, R. et al. Toward principles for enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 37, 421–448 (2012).
Cohen, P. J. & Foale, S. J. Sustaining small-scale fisheries with periodically harvested marine reserves. Mar. Policy 37, 278–287 (2013).
Carvalho, P. G. et al. Optimized fishing through periodically harvested closures. J. Appl. Ecol. 56, 1927–1936 (2019).
Cinner, J. E. et al. Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change. PLoS One 8, e74321 (2013).
Ford, J. D. et al. Including indigenous knowledge and experience in IPCC assessment reports. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 349–353 (2016).
McNamara, K. E. & Westoby, R. Local knowledge and climate change adaptation on Erub Island, Torres Strait. Local Environ. 16, 887–901 (2011).
Miller, D. D., Ota, Y., Sumaila, U. R., Cisneros-Montemayor, A. M. & Cheung, W. W. L. Adaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems. Glob. Change Biol. 24, e1–e14 (2018).
Weeks, R. & Jupiter, S. D. Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji. Conserv. Biol. 27, 1234–1244 (2013).
Ogier, E. M. et al. Fisheries management approaches as platforms for climate change adaptation: comparing theory and practice in Australian fisheries. Mar. Policy 71, 82–93 (2016).
Bruno, J. F., Côté, I. M. & Toth, L. T. Climate change, coral loss, and the curious case of the parrotfish paradigm: why don’t marine protected areas improve reef resilience? Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 11, 307–334 (2019).
Oremus, K. L. et al. Governance challenges for tropical nations losing fish species due to climate change. Nat. Sustain. 3, 277–280 (2020).
Mendenhall, E. et al. Climate change increases the risk of fisheries conflict. Mar. Policy 117, 103954 (2020).
Moore, B. R. et al. Defining the stock structures of key commercial tunas in the Pacific Ocean I: current knowledge and main uncertainties. Fish. Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105525 (2020).
Moore, B. R. et al. Defining the stock structures of key commercial tunas in the Pacific Ocean II: Sampling considerations and future directions. Fish. Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105524 (2020).
Gattuso, J.-P. et al. Ocean solutions to address climate change and its effects on marine ecosystems. Front. Mar. Sci. 5, 337 (2018).
Sumaila, U. R. et al. Benefits of the Paris Agreement to ocean life, economies, and people. Sci. Adv. 5, eaau3855 (2019).
Gallo, N. D., Victor, D. G. & Levin, L. A. Ocean commitments under the Paris Agreement. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 833–838 (2017).
Mcleod, E. et al. A blueprint for blue carbon: toward an improved understanding of the role of vegetated coastal habitats in sequestering CO2. Front. Ecol. Environ. 9, 552–560 (2011).
Herr, D. & Landis, E. Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems. Opportunities for Nationally Determined Contributions. Policy Brief (IUCN, 2016).
Goldstein, A. et al. Protecting irrecoverable carbon in Earth’s ecosystems. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 287–295 (2020).
Pendleton, L. et al. Estimating global “blue carbon” emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems. PLoS One 7, e43542 (2012).
Zarate-Barrera, T. G. & Maldonado, J. H. Valuing blue carbon: carbon sequestration benefits provided by the marine protected areas in Colombia. PLoS One 10, e0126627 (2015).
Wylie, L., Sutton-Grier, A. E. & Moore, A. Keys to successful blue carbon projects: lessons learned from global case studies. Mar. Policy 65, 76–84 (2016).
Locatelli, T. et al. Turning the tide: how blue carbon and payments for ecosystem services (PES) might help save mangrove forests. Ambio 43, 981–995 (2014).
Barbesgaard, M. C. Blue carbon: ocean grabbing in disguise? Transnational Institute https://www.tni.org/en/publication/blue-carbon-ocean-grabbing-in-disguise (2016).
Sharp, M. The benefits of fish aggregating devices in the Pacific. SPC Fish. Newsl. 135, 28–36 (2011).
Grafton, R. Q. Adaptation to climate change in marine capture fisheries. Mar. Policy 34, 606–615 (2010).
Kurien, J. Voluntary guidelines for securing sustainable small-scale fisheries in the context of food security and poverty eradication: summary (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2015).
Castree, N. et al. Changing the intellectual climate. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 763–768 (2014).
Allison, E. H. & Bassett, H. R. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses. Science 350, 778–782 (2015).
Bobrowsky, P., Cronin, V. S., Di Capua, G., Kieffer, S. W. & Peppoloni, S. 11. The emerging field of geoethics. Sci. Integr. Ethics Geosci. 73, 175 (2017).
Bohle, M. One realm: thinking geoethically and guiding small-scale fisheries? Eur. J. Dev. Res. 31, 253–270 (2019).
UNEP-WCMC, WorldFish Centre, WRI & TNC. Global distribution of warm-water coral reefs, compiled from multiple sources including the Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project. Version 4.0. Includes contributions from IMaRS-USF and IRD (2005), IMaRS-USF (2005) and Spalding et al. (2001) (UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 2018).
UNEP-WCMC & Short, F. T. Global distribution of seagrasses (version 5.0). Fourth update to the data layer used in Green and Short (2003) (UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 2017).
Giri, C. et al. Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data (version 1.3, updated by UNEP-WCMC). Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20, 154–159 (2011).
Mcowen, C. J. et al. A global map of saltmarshes. Biodivers. Data J. 5, e11764 (2017).
Lehodey, P. et al. in Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change (eds Bell, J. D., Johnson, J. E. & Hobday, A. J.) 433–492 (Secretariat of the Pacific Community, 2011).
Lehodey, P. et al. Modelling the impact of climate change including ocean acidification on Pacific yellowfin tuna. Scientific Committee Thirteenth Regular Session, Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission 1–25 (2017).
Senina, I. et al. Impact of climate change on tropical Pacific tuna and their fisheries in Pacific Islands waters and high seas areas. Scientific Committee Fourteenth Regular Session, Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission 1–43 (2018).
Bell, J. D. et al. Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 591–599 (2013).
Bell, J. D. et al. in Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change (eds Bell, J. D., Johnson, J. E. & Hobday, A. J.) 733–801 (Secretariat of the Pacific Community, 2011).
Bell, J. D. et al. in Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture. Synthesis of Current Knowledge, Adaptation and Mitigation Options FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 627 Ch. 14 305–324 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2018).
Scott, F., Scott, R., Yao, N., Pilling, G. M. & Hampton, J. Considering uncertainty when testing and monitoring WCPFC harvest strategies. Scientific Committee Fifteenth Regular Session, Western Central Pacific Fisheries Commission 1–23 (2019).
Pratchett, M. S. et al. Vulnerabilty of coastal fisheries in the tropical Pacific to climate change (eds Bell, J. D., Johnson, J. E. & Hobday, A. J.) in Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change 493–576 (Secretariat of the Pacific Community, 2011).
Gasalla, M. A., Abdallah, P. R. & Lemos, D. in Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture. A Global Analysis. Vol. 1 (eds Philips, B. F. & Pérez-Ramírez, M.) 455–477 (Wiley, 2017).
Popova, E. et al. From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 2038–2053 (2016).
Schulz, C. et al. Physical, ecological and human dimensions of environmental change in Brazil’s Pantanal wetland: synthesis and research agenda. Sci. Total Environ. 687, 1011–1027 (2019).
Barros, D. F. & Albernaz, A. L. M. Possible impacts of climate change on wetlands and its biota in the Brazilian Amazon. Braz. J. Biol. 74, 810–820 (2014).
Johnson, J. E. et al. Climate change adaptation: vulnerability and challenges facing small-scale fisheries on small islands. FAO Fish. Aquacult. Proc. 61, 65–80 (2019).
Martins, I. M. & Gasalla, M. A. Perceptions of climate and ocean change impacting the resources and livelihood of small-scale fishers in the South Brazil Bight. Clim. Change 147, 441–456 (2018).
Martins, I. M., Gammage, L. C., Jarre, A. & Gasalla, M. A. Different but similar? Exploring vulnerability to climate change in Brazilian and South African small-scale fishing communities. Hum. Ecol. 47, 515–526 (2019).
Gasalla, M. A. Six decades of change in the South Brazil Bight Ecosystem in Proc. 3rd GLOBEC Open Science Meeting: From Ecosystem Function to Ecosystem Prediction (2008).
Dahlet, L. I., Downey-Breedt, N., Arce, G., Sauer, W. H. H. & Gasalla, M. A. Comparative study of skipjack tuna Katsuwonus pelamis (Scombridae) fishery stocks from the South Atlantic and western Indian oceans. Sci. Mar. 83, 19–30 (2019).
Araújo, F. G., Teixeira, T. P., Guedes, A. P. P., de Azevedo, M. C. C. & Pessanha, A. L. M. Shifts in the abundance and distribution of shallow water fish fauna on the southeastern Brazilian coast: a response to climate change. Hydrobiologia 814, 205–218 (2018).
Gasalla, M. A. An overview of climate change effects in South Brazil Bight fisheries in Proc. 6th World Fisheries Congress (2012).
Santos, L. C. M., Gasalla, M. A., Dahdouh-Guebas, F. & Bitencourt, M. D. Socio-ecological assessment for environmental planning in coastal fishery areas: a case study in Brazilian mangroves. Ocean Coast. Manag. 138, 60–69 (2017).
Zou, D. & Gao, K. in Seaweeds and Their Role in Globally Changing Environments (eds Seckbach, J., Einav, R. & Israel, A.) 115–126 (Springer, 2010).
Ramaglia, A. C., de Castro, L. M. & Augusto, A. Effects of ocean acidification and salinity variations on the physiology of osmoregulating and osmoconforming crustaceans. J. Comp. Physiol. B 188, 729–738 (2018).
Freduah, G., Fidelman, P. & Smith, T. F. The impacts of environmental and socio-economic stressors on small scale fisheries and livelihoods of fishers in Ghana. Appl. Geogr. 89, 1–11 (2017).
Bunce, M., Rosendo, S. & Brown, K. Perceptions of climate change, multiple stressors and livelihoods on marginal African coasts. Environ. Dev. Sustain. 12, 407–440 (2010).
Burke, L.M., Reytar, K., Spalding, M. & Perry, A. Reefs at risk revisited: World Resources Institute. (2017).
Roberts, C. M. et al. Marine biodiversity hotspots and conservation priorities for tropical reefs. Science 295, 1280–1284 (2002).
Lam, V. W. Y., Cheung, W. W. L., Swartz, W. & Sumaila, U. R. Climate change impacts on fisheries in West Africa: implications for economic, food and nutritional security. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 34, 103–117 (2012).
Barange, M. et al. Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 211–216 (2014).
Blanchard, J. L. et al. Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 367, 2979–2989 (2012).
Belhabib, D., Lam, V. W. Y. & Cheung, W. W. L. Overview of West African fisheries under climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptive responses of the artisanal and industrial sectors. Mar. Policy 71, 15–28 (2016).
The authors thank S. Heron for advice on the effects of ocean warming on corals, C. Reid for assistance with information on the value of tuna exports and catches from Pacific Island fisheries and G. Reygondeau for providing concept and design on the figures. V.W.Y.L. acknowledges funding support from Nippon Foundation Nereus Program and the World Bank. E.H.A. acknowledges funding from Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus Program, CGIAR Research Program on Fish Agri-Food Systems and the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, for a visiting professorship. J.D.B. acknowledges funding support from the Moccasin Lake Foundation. W.W.L.C. thanks the Hans Sigrist Foundation and the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research for financial support for his residence at the University of Bern. W.W.L.C. also acknowledges funding support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Social Sciences (Discovery Grant), Humanity Research Council of Canada through the OceanCanada Partnership, the Nippon Foundation–University of British Columbia Nereus Program and the Killam Research Fellowship. T.L.F. has received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (PP00P2_170687) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 820989 (project COMFORT, Our common future ocean in the Earth system — quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points). M.A.G. acknowledges support from CNPq (Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development) and FAPESP (Sao Paulo Research Foundation). U.R.S. thanks the funding support from Social Sciences (Discovery Grant), Humanity Research Council of Canada through the OceanCanada Partnership and the World Bank.
The authors declare no competing interests.
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency: www.ffa.int
Sea Around Us catch database: www.seaaroundus.org
United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database: https://comtrade.un.org/Data/
Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Convention Area: www.wcpfc.int/doc/convention-area-map
- Landed value
The value of marine fish catches when removed from vessels in domestic or foreign ports.
- Exclusive economic zones
(EEZs). A 200-nautical-mile region from a nation’s coast over which a country has the sovereign right to explore and exploit, conserve and manage living and non-living resources in the water column and on the seafloor, as prescribed by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Strong CO2 emission mitigation results in falling greenhouse gas concentrations and total radiative forcing of 2.6 Wm−2 by 2100 (relative to 1750), leading to global increases in mean surface air temperature of 1.3–1.9 °C.
No CO2 mitigation leads to total radiative forcing of 8.5 Wm−2 by 2100 (relative to 1750), increasing global mean surface air temperature by 4.0–6.1 °C, an outcome resembling the A1F1, A2 and A1B scenarios included in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.
- Maximum sustainable yield
The highest possible annual catch that can be removed from a population while keeping the maximum growth over a long period of time. The maximum sustainable yield refers to a hypothetical equilibrium state between the exploited population and the fishing activity.
- Maximum catch potential
(MCP). The potential of the fish stocks to provide long-term fish catches; it is considered a proxy of the maximum sustainable yield.
- Species turnover
The number of species locally extinct and newly established in a particular area, used to represent the extent of changes in the species assemblage.
- Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP). Four climate change scenarios are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Only scenarios with the highest (RCP8.5) and lowest (RCP2.6) radiative forcing are mentioned in this Review.
- Maximum revenue potential
(MRP). Landed values at the maximum catch potential.
- Human development index
A summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and a decent standard of living.
- Provisioning services
Includes tangible products from ecosystems that humans make use of, such as fish and seafood, agricultural crops, timber or fresh water.
- Regulating services
The benefits people obtain owing to the regulation of natural processes, such as carbon sequestration and storage, erosion prevention, waste-water treatment and moderation of extreme events.
- Supporting services
The services that are necessary for the maintenance of all other ecosystem services including biomass production, life-cycle maintenance for both fauna and local, element and nutrient cycling.
- Cultural services
Tourism, recreational, aesthetic and spiritual benefits.
About this article
Cite this article
Lam, V.W.Y., Allison, E.H., Bell, J.D. et al. Climate change, tropical fisheries and prospects for sustainable development. Nat Rev Earth Environ 1, 440–454 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0071-9
Nature Communications (2021)
Nature Sustainability (2021)