Coastal subsidence contributes to relative sea-level rise and exacerbates flooding hazards, with the at-risk population expected to triple by 2070. Natural processes of vertical land motion, such as tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment and sediment compaction, as well as anthropogenic processes, such as fluid extraction, lead to globally variable subsidence rates. In this Review, we discuss the key physical processes driving vertical land motion in coastal areas. Use of space-borne and land-based techniques and the associated uncertainties for monitoring subsidence are examined, as are physics-based models used to explain contemporary subsidence rates and to obtain future projections. Steady and comparatively low rates of subsidence and uplift owing to tectonic processes and glacial isostatic adjustment can be assumed for the twenty-first century. By contrast, much higher and variable subsidence rates occur owing to compaction associated with sediment loading and fluid extraction, as well as large earthquakes. These rates can be up to two orders of magnitude higher than the present-day rate of global sea-level rise. Multi-objective predictive models are required to account for the underlying physical processes and socio-economic factors that drive subsidence.
Realistic estimates of the impact of sea-level rise on coastal communities require knowledge of coastal subsidence.
Subsidence rates due to glacial isostatic adjustment and basin tectonics are steady, except in places that experience contemporary ice loss.
Processes such as natural sediment compaction, organic-matter oxidation, aquifer-system and hydrocarbon-reservoir compaction, and large earthquakes cause coastal-subsidence rates that are highly variable in space and time.
Human effects in the coastal zone can accelerate subsidence, with rates up to two orders of magnitude higher than present-day rates of geocentric sea-level rise.
State-of-the-art, physics-based numerical models enable quantification of present and prediction of future coastal subsidence for a range of different natural and anthropogenic processes.
Coastal subsidence is a highly complex problem with large spatio-temporal variability owing to multiple processes, requiring multidisciplinary approaches to characterize the driving mechanisms and to elucidate their individual contributions, as well as to enable predictions.
This is a preview of subscription content
Subscribe to Journal
Get full journal access for 1 year
only $4.92 per issue
All prices are NET prices.
VAT will be added later in the checkout.
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Rent or Buy article
Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.
All prices are NET prices.
Hauer, M. E. et al. Sea-level rise and human migration. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1, 28–39 (2020).
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J. & Nicholls, R. J. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding-a global assessment. PLoS ONE 10, e0118571 (2015).
Milliman, J. & Haq, B. U. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence: Causes, Consequences, and Strategies Vol. 2 (Springer, 1996). A comprehensive overview that highlights the fact that coastal subsidence is commonly human-induced.
Hanson, S. et al. A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes. Clim. Change 104, 89–111 (2011).
Kulp, S. A. & Strauss, B. H. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nat. Commun. 10, 4844 (2019).
Cazenave, A. et al. Global sea-level budget 1993–present. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 1551–1590 (2018).
Frederikse, T. et al. The causes of sea-level rise since 1900. Nature 584, 393–397 (2020).
Gregory, J. M. et al. Concepts and terminology for sea level: mean, variability and change, both local and global. Surv. Geophys. 40, 1251–1289 (2019). Community paper that standardizes sea-level terminology, including VLM, in a mathematically rigorous way.
Khan, N. S. et al. Inception of a global atlas of sea levels since the Last Glacial Maximum. Quat. Sci. Rev. 220, 359–371 (2019).
Syvitski, J. P. et al. Sinking deltas due to human activities. Nat. Geosci. 2, 681–686 (2009).
Farrell, W. & Clark, J. A. On postglacial sea level. Geophys. J. Int. 46, 647–667 (1976).
Kendall, R. A., Mitrovica, J. X. & Milne, G. A. On post-glacial sea level–II. Numerical formulation and comparative results on spherically symmetric models. Geophys. J. Int. 161, 679–706 (2005).
Peltier, W. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth: the ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 32, 111–149 (2004).
Atwater, B. F. Evidence for great Holocene earthquakes along the outer coast of Washington State. Science 236, 942–944 (1987).
Nelson, A. R., Shennan, I. & Long, A. J. Identifying coseismic subsidence in tidal-wetland stratigraphic sequences at the Cascadia subduction zone of western North America. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 101, 6115–6135 (1996).
Cahoon, D. R., Reed, D. J. & Day, J. W. Jr. Estimating shallow subsidence in microtidal salt marshes of the southeastern United States: Kaye and Barghoorn revisited. Mar. Geol. 128, 1–9 (1995). Pioneering study that shows how the RSET method can be used to calculate subsidence rates within the shallowest subsurface of coastal wetlands.
Kaye, C. A. & Barghoorn, E. S. Late Quaternary sea-level change and crustal rise at Boston, Massachusetts, with notes on the autocompaction of peat. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 75, 63–80 (1964).
Van Asselen, S., Stouthamer, E. & Van Asch, T. W. Effects of peat compaction on delta evolution: a review on processes, responses, measuring and modeling. Earth Sci. Rev. 92, 35–51 (2009).
Zoccarato, C., Minderhoud, P. S. & Teatini, P. The role of sedimentation and natural compaction in a prograding delta: insights from the mega Mekong delta, Vietnam. Sci. Rep. 8, 11437 (2018).
Gambolati, G. et al. Peat land oxidation enhances subsidence in the Venice watershed. Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 86, 217–220 (2005).
Hooijer, A. et al. Subsidence and carbon loss in drained tropical peatlands. Biogeosciences 9, 1053–1071 (2012).
Koster, K. et al. Three-dimensional distribution of organic matter in coastal-deltaic peat: implications for subsidence and carbon dioxide emissions by human-induced peat oxidation. Anthropocene 22, 1–9 (2018).
Schothorst, C. Subsidence of low moor peat soils in the western Netherlands. Geoderma 17, 265–291 (1977).
van Asselen, S. et al. The relative contribution of peat compaction and oxidation to subsidence in built-up areas in the Rhine-Meuse delta, The Netherlands. Sci. Total Environ. 636, 177–191 (2018).
Galloway, D. L. & Burbey, T. J. Review: regional land subsidence accompanying groundwater extraction. Hydrol. J. 19, 1459–1486 (2011).
Ingebritsen, S. E. & Galloway, D. L. Coastal subsidence and relative sea level rise. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 091002 (2014).
Tosi, L., Teatini, P., Carbognin, L. & Brancolini, G. Using high resolution data to reveal depth-dependent mechanisms that drive land subsidence: the Venice coast, Italy. Tectonophysics 274, 271–284 (2009).
DeConto, R. M. & Pollard, D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591–597 (2016).
Oppenheimer, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Ch. 4 (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 321–445 (IPCC, 2019).
Bierkens, M. F. & Wada, Y. Non-renewable groundwater use and groundwater depletion: a review. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 063002 (2019).
Rehrl, T. & Friedrich, R. Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: the LOPEX model. Energy Policy 34, 2413–2428 (2006).
Bertrand, S. et al. Sedimentary record of coseismic subsidence in Hersek coastal lagoon (Izmit Bay, Turkey) and the late Holocene activity of the North Anatolian Fault. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 12, Q06002 (2011).
Hawkes, A. D., Horton, B., Nelson, A., Vane, C. & Sawai, Y. Coastal subsidence in Oregon, USA, during the giant Cascadia earthquake of AD 1700. Quat. Sci. Rev. 30, 364–376 (2011).
Jankowski, K. L., Törnqvist, T. E. & Fernandes, A. M. Vulnerability of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands to present-day rates of relative sea-level rise. Nat. Commun. 8, 14792 (2017).
Brown, S. & Nicholls, R. Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: the case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna. Sci. Total Environ. 527, 362–374 (2015).
Dixon, T. H. et al. Space geodesy: subsidence and flooding in New Orleans. Nature 441, 587–588 (2006).
Mazzotti, S., Lambert, A., Van der Kooij, M. & Mainville, A. Impact of anthropogenic subsidence on relative sea-level rise in the Fraser River delta. Geology 37, 771–774 (2009).
Minderhoud, P., Middelkoop, H., Erkens, G. & Stouthamer, E. Groundwater extraction may drown mega-delta: projections of extraction-induced subsidence and elevation of the Mekong delta for the 21st century. Environ. Res. Commun. 2, 011005 (2020). Modelling approach to capture uncertainty of future human-induced subsidence and its effect on RSL rise using extraction scenarios.
Aerts, J. C. J. H. et al. Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities. Science 344, 472–474 (2014).
Morris, E. P., Gomez-Enri, J. & van der Wal, D. Copernicus downstream service supports nature-based flood defense use of sentinel earth observation satellites for coastal needs. Sea Technol. 56, 23–26 (2015).
Brain, M. J. Past, present and future perspectives of sediment compaction as a driver of relative sea level and coastal change. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 2, 75–85 (2016).
Higgins, S. A. Advances in delta-subsidence research using satellite methods. Hydrogeol. J. 24, 587–600 (2016).
Wöppelmann, G. & Marcos, M. Vertical land motion as a key to understanding sea level change and variability. Rev. Geophys 54, 64–92 (2016).
Allen, M. B., Macdonald, D. I., Xun, Z., Vincent, S. J. & Brouet-Menzies, C. Early Cenozoic two-phase extension and late Cenozoic thermal subsidence and inversion of the Bohai Basin, northern China. Mar. Pet. Geol. 14, 951–972 (1997).
Sclater, J. G., Taupart, C. & Galson, D. The heat flow through oceanic and continental crust and the heat loss of the Earth. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 18, 269–311 (1980).
Leeper, R. et al. Evidence for coseismic subsidence events in a southern California coastal saltmarsh. Sci. Rep. 7, 44615 (2017).
Milker, Y. et al. Differences in coastal subsidence in southern Oregon (USA) during at least six prehistoric megathrust earthquakes. Quat. Sci. Rev. 142, 143–163 (2016).
Segall, P. Earthquake and Volcano Deformation. Ch. 2 & Ch. 3 (Princeton Univ. Press, 2010).
Dura, T. et al. Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile. Quat. Sci. Rev. 113, 93–111 (2015).
Dura, T. et al. Subduction zone slip variability during the last millennium, south-central Chile. Quat. Sci. Rev. 175, 112–137 (2017). A multi-proxy paleoseismic study from the overlap of the 1960 and 2010 Chilean earthquakes that documents a mixed coseismic uplift and subsidence history of the coastline.
Fujiwara, O., Fujino, S., Komatsubara, J., Morita, Y. & Namegaya, Y. Paleoecological evidence for coastal subsidence during five great earthquakes in the past 1500 years along the northern onshore continuation of the Nankai subduction zone. Quat. Int. 397, 523–540 (2016).
Govers, R., Furlong, K. P., Van de Wiel, L., Herman, M. & Broerse, T. The geodetic signature of the earthquake cycle at subduction zones: model constraints on the deep processes. Rev. Geophys. 56, 6–49 (2018).
Sawai, Y. et al. Transient uplift after a 17th-century earthquake along the Kuril subduction zone. Science 306, 1918–1920 (2004).
Satirapod, C., Trisirisatayawong, I., Fleitout, L., Garaud, J. & Simons, W. Vertical motions in Thailand after the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake from GPS observations and its geophysical modelling. Adv. Space Res. 51, 1565–1571 (2013).
Brown, L. F. Jr, Loucks, R. G., Trevino, R. H. & Hammes, U. Understanding growth-faulted, intraslope subbasins by applying sequence-stratigraphic principles: Examples from the south Texas Oligocene Frio Formation. AAPG Bull. 88, 1501–1523 (2004).
Karegar, M. A., Dixon, T. H. & Malservisi, R. A three-dimensional surface velocity field for the Mississippi Delta: implications for coastal restoration and flood potential. Geology 43, 519–522 (2015).
McClay, K., Dooley, T., Ferguson, A. & Poblet, J. Tectonic evolution of the Sanga Sanga Block, Mahakam Delta, Kalimantan, Indonesia. AAPG Bull. 84, 765–786 (2000).
Shen, Z. et al. Mechanisms of Late Quaternary fault throw-rate variability along the north central Gulf of Mexico coast: implications for coastal subsidence. Basin Res. 29, 557–570 (2017).
Edwards, M. B. Growth faults in upper Triassic deltaic sediments, Svalbard. AAPG Bull. 60, 341–355 (1976).
Morley, C. K. & Guerin, G. Comparison of gravity-driven deformation styles and behavior associated with mobile shales and salt. Tectonics 15, 1154–1170 (1996).
Thorsen, C. E. Age of growth faulting in southeast Louisiana. GCAGS Trans. 13, 103–110 (1963).
Vendeville, B. Mechanisms generating normal fault curvature: a review illustrated by physical models. Geol. Soc. London Spec. Publ. 56, 241–249 (1991).
Crans, W., Mandl, G. & Haremboure, J. On the theory of growth faulting*: a geomechanical delta model based on gravity sliding. J. Pet. Geol. 2, 265–307 (1980).
White, N., Jackson, J. & McKenzie, D. The relationship between the geometry of normal faults and that of the sedimentary layers in their hanging walls. J. Struct. Geol. 8, 897–909 (1986).
Back, S., Höcker, C., Brundiers, M. & Kukla, P. Three-dimensional-seismic coherency signature of Niger Delta growth faults: integrating sedimentology and tectonics. Basin Res. 18, 323–337 (2006).
Dokka, R. K. The role of deep processes in late 20th century subsidence of New Orleans and coastal areas of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 116, B06403 (2011).
Frederick, B. C., Blum, M., Fillon, R. & Roberts, H. Resolving the contributing factors to Mississippi Delta subsidence: past and present. Basin Res. 31, 171–190 (2019). An assessment of long-term subsidence patterns and rates based on an unprecedented analysis of >80,000 industry wells.
Conrad, C. P. & Hager, B. H. Spatial variations in the rate of sea level rise caused by the present-day melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 1503–1506 (1997).
Milne, G. A. & Mitrovica, J. X. Postglacial sea-level change on a rotating Earth. Geophys. J. Int. 133, 1–19 (1998).
Mitrovica, J. X. & Peltier, W. R. On postglacial geoid subsidence over the equatorial oceans. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 96, 20053–20071 (1991).
Spada, G. in Integrative Study of the Mean Sea Level and Its Components 155–187 (Springer, 2017).
Whitehouse, P. L. Glacial isostatic adjustment modelling: historical perspectives, recent advances, and future directions. Earth Surf. Dyn. 6, 401–429 (2018).
Lidberg, M., Johansson, J. M., Scherneck, H.-G. & Milne, G. A. Recent results based on continuous GPS observations of the GIA process in Fennoscandia from BIFROST. J. Geodyn. 50, 8–18 (2010).
Sella, G. F. et al. Observation of glacial isostatic adjustment in “stable” North America with GPS. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L02306 (2007).
Barletta, V. R. et al. Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability. Science 360, 1335–1339 (2018).
Khan, S. A., Wahr, J., Bevis, M., Velicogna, I. & Kendrick, E. Spread of ice mass loss into northwest Greenland observed by GRACE and GPS. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L06501 (2010).
Larsen, C. F., Motyka, R. J., Freymueller, J. T., Echelmeyer, K. A. & Ivins, E. R. Rapid viscoelastic uplift in southeast Alaska caused by post-Little Ice Age glacial retreat. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 237, 548–560 (2005).
Sasgen, I. et al. Altimetry, gravimetry, GPS and viscoelastic modeling data for the joint inversion for glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica (ESA STSE Project REGINA). Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 493–523 (2018).
Blum, M. D., Tomkin, J. H., Purcell, A. & Lancaster, R. R. Ups and downs of the Mississippi Delta. Geology 36, 675–678 (2008).
Wolstencroft, M., Shen, Z., Törnqvist, T. E., Milne, G. A. & Kulp, M. Understanding subsidence in the Mississippi Delta region due to sediment, ice, and ocean loading: insights from geophysical modeling. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 119, 3838–3856 (2014).
Yu, S.-Y., Törnqvist, T. E. & Hu, P. Quantifying Holocene lithospheric subsidence rates underneath the Mississippi Delta. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 331, 21–30 (2012).
Grall, C. et al. A base-level stratigraphic approach to determining Holocene subsidence of the Ganges–Meghna–Brahmaputra Delta plain. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 499, 23–36 (2018).
Karpytchev, M. et al. Contributions of a strengthened early Holocene monsoon and sediment loading to present-day subsidence of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 1433–1442 (2018).
Watts, A. B. Isostasy and Flexure of the Lithosphere (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).
Farrell, W. E. Deformation of the Earth by surface loads. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 10, 761–797 (1972).
Steckler, M. S. et al. Modeling Earth deformation from monsoonal flooding in Bangladesh using hydrographic, GPS, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 115, B08407 (2010).
Keogh, M. E. & Törnqvist, T. E. Measuring rates of present-day relative sea-level rise in low-elevation coastal zones: a critical evaluation. Ocean Sci. 15, 61–73 (2019). Presents an alternative approach to tide gauges to more accurately determine the rate of RSL rise in coastal wetlands.
Liu, C.-W., Lin, W.-S., Shang, C. & Liu, S.-H. The effect of clay dehydration on land subsidence in the Yun-Lin coastal area, Taiwan. Environ. Geol. 40, 518–527 (2001).
Teatini, P., Tosi, L. & Strozzi, T. Quantitative evidence that compaction of Holocene sediments drives the present land subsidence of the Po Delta, Italy. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 116, B08407 (2011).
Törnqvist, T. E. et al. Mississippi Delta subsidence primarily caused by compaction of Holocene strata. Nat. Geosci. 1, 173–176 (2008).
Audet, D. & Fowler, A. A mathematical model for compaction in sedimentary basins. Geophys. J. Int. 110, 577–590 (1992).
Fowler, A. C. & Yang, X.-S. Fast and slow compaction in sedimentary basins. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 59, 365–385 (1998).
Kooi, H. & De Vries, J. Land subsidence and hydrodynamic compaction of sedimentary basins. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2, 159–171 (1998). Applied a 1D model to investigate the compaction of basin sediments in response to sediment loading.
Meckel, T. A., ten Brink, U. S. & Williams, S. J. Current subsidence rates due to compaction of Holocene sediments in southern Louisiana. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L1140 (2006).
Spasojević, S., Liu, L., Gurnis, M. & Müller, R. D. The case for dynamic subsidence of the US east coast since the Eocene. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08305 (2008).
Nienhuis, J. H., Törnqvist, T. E., Jankowski, K. L., Fernandes, A. M. & Keogh, M. E. A new subsidence map for coastal Louisiana. GSA Today 27, 58–59 (2017).
Shirzaei, M. & Bürgmann, R. Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area. Sci. Adv. 4, eaap9234 (2018).
Lovelock, C. E. et al. The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise. Nature 526, 559–563 (2015).
Chang, C., Mallman, E. & Zoback, M. Time-dependent subsidence associated with drainage-induced compaction in Gulf of Mexico shales bounding a severely depleted gas reservoir. AAPG Bull. 98, 1145–1159 (2014).
Chaussard, E., Bürgmann, R., Shirzaei, M., Fielding, E. J. & Baker, B. Predictability of hydraulic head changes and basin-wide aquifer and fault characterization from InSAR-derived ground deformation. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 119, 6572–6590 (2014).
Gambolati, G. & Teatini, P. Geomechanics of subsurface water withdrawal and injection. Water Resour. Res. 51, 3922–3955 (2015).
Miller, M. M. & Shirzaei, M. Spatiotemporal characterization of land subsidence and uplift in Phoenix using InSAR time series and wavelet transforms. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 120, 5822–5842 (2015).
Miller, M. M., Shirzaei, M. & Argus, D. Aquifer mechanical properties and decelerated compaction in Tucson, Arizona. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 122, 8402–8416 (2017).
Ojha, C., Shirzaei, M., Werth, S., Argus, D. F. & Farr, T. G. Sustained groundwater loss in California’s Central Valley exacerbated by intense drought periods. Water Resour. Res. 54, 4449–4460 (2018).
Ojha, C., Werth, S. & Shirzaei, M. Recovery of aquifer-systems in Southwest US following 2012–2015 drought: evidence from InSAR, GRACE and groundwater level data. J. Hydrol. 587, 124943 (2020).
Teatini, P., Baú, D. & Gambolati, G. Water–gas dynamics and coastal land subsidence over Chioggia Mare field, northern Adriatic Sea. Hydrol. J. 8, 462–479 (2000).
Biot, M. & Willis, D. The elastic coefficients of the theory of consolidation. J. Appl. Mech. 24, 594–601 (1957).
Hoffmann, J., Galloway, D. L. & Zebker, H. A. Inverse modeling of interbed storage parameters using land subsidence observations, Antelope Valley, California. Water Resour. Res. 39, 1031 (2003).
Terzaghi, K. Theoretical Soil Mechanics 528 (Wiley, 1943).
Wang, H. F. Theory of Linear Poroelasticity with Applications to Geomechanics and Hydrogeology (Princeton Univ. Press, 2000).
Terzaghi, K. Principles of soil mechanics, IV—Settlement and consolidation of clay. Eng. News Record 95, 874–878 (1925).
Galloway, D. L., Jones, D. R. & Ingebritsen, S. E. Land Subsidence in the United States Circular 1182 (US Geological Survey, 1999).
Chaussard, E. & Farr, T. G. A new method for isolating elastic from inelastic deformation in aquifer systems: application to the San Joaquin Valley, CA. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 10800–10809 (2019).
Ojha, C., Werth, S. & Shirzaei, M. Groundwater loss and aquifer system compaction in San Joaquin Valley during 2012–2015 drought. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 124, 3127–3143 (2019).
Shirzaei, M., Ojha, C., Werth, S., Carlson, G. & Vivoni, E. R. Comment on “Short-lived pause in Central California subsidence after heavy winter precipitation of 2017” by K. D. Murray and R. B. Lohman. Sci. Adv. 5, eaav8038 (2019).
Smith, R. G. et al. Estimating the permanent loss of groundwater storage in the southern San Joaquin Valley, California. Water Resour. Res. 53, 2133–2148 (2017).
Scanlon, B. R. et al. Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 9320–9325 (2012).
Taylor, R. G. et al. Ground water and climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 322–329 (2013).
Minderhoud, P. S. et al. Impacts of 25 years of groundwater extraction on subsidence in the Mekong delta, Vietnam. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 064006 (2017).
Erban, L. E., Gorelick, S. M. & Zebker, H. A. Groundwater extraction, land subsidence, and sea-level rise in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 084010 (2014).
Minderhoud, P. S. J., Hlavacova, I., Kolomaznik, J. & Neussner, O. Towards unraveling total subsidence of a mega-delta–the potential of new PS InSAR data for the Mekong delta. Proc. Int. Assoc. Hydrol. Sci. 382, 327–332 (2020).
Morton, R. A., Bernier, J. C. & Barras, J. A. Evidence of regional subsidence and associated interior wetland loss induced by hydrocarbon production, Gulf Coast region, USA. Environ. Geol. 50, 261 (2006).
Qu, F. et al. Mapping ground deformation over Houston–Galveston, Texas using multi-temporal InSAR. Remote Sens. Environ. 169, 290–306 (2015).
Minderhoud, P. et al. The relation between land use and subsidence in the Vietnamese Mekong delta. Sci. Total Environ. 634, 715–726 (2018).
Hoogland, T., Van den Akker, J. & Brus, D. Modeling the subsidence of peat soils in the Dutch coastal area. Geoderma 171, 92–97 (2012).
Koster, K., Stafleu, J. & Stouthamer, E. Differential subsidence in the urbanised coastal-deltaic plain of the Netherlands. Neth. J. Geosci. 97, 215–227 (2018).
Murray-Wallace, C. V. & Woodroffe, C. D. Quaternary Sea-Level Changes: A Global Perspective (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Shennan, I., Long, A. J. & Horton, B. P. Handbook of Sea-Level Research (Wiley, 2015).
Shennan, I. Flandrian sea-level changes in the Fenland. II: Tendencies of sea-level movement, altitudinal changes, and local and regional factors. J. Quat. Sci. 1, 155–179 (1986).
Barlow, N. L. et al. Salt marshes as late Holocene tide gauges. Glob. Planet. Change 106, 90–110 (2013).
Kiden, P. Holocene relative sea-level change and crustal movement in the southwestern Netherlands. Mar. Geol. 124, 21–41 (1995).
Engelhart, S. E., Horton, B. P., Douglas, B. C., Peltier, W. R. & Törnqvist, T. E. Spatial variability of late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Geology 37, 1115–1118 (2009).
Kemp, A., Horton, B. & Engelhart, S. in Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science 2nd edn 489–494 (Elsevier, 2013).
Garrett, E. et al. Reconstructing paleoseismic deformation, 2: 1000 years of great earthquakes at Chucalén, south central Chile. Quat. Sci. Rev. 113, 112–122 (2015).
Wang, K. & Tréhu, A. M. Invited review paper: Some outstanding issues in the study of great megathrust earthquakes—The Cascadia example. J. Geodyn. 98, 1–18 (2016).
Burgette, R. J., Weldon, R. J. & Schmidt, D. A. Interseismic uplift rates for western Oregon and along-strike variation in locking on the Cascadia subduction zone. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 114, B01408 (2009).
Goldfinger, C. et al. The importance of site selection, sediment supply, and hydrodynamics: a case study of submarine paleoseismology on the northern Cascadia margin, Washington USA. Mar. Geol. 384, 4–46 (2017).
Tanaka, H. et al. Coastal and estuarine morphology changes induced by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami. Coast. Eng. J. 54, 1250010 (2012).
Dzurisin, D. Volcano Deformation - New Geodetic Monitoring Techniques (Springer, 2006).
Vaníček, P. & Krakiwsky, E. Geodesy: The Concepts 237 (North-Holland, 1982).
Dzurisin, D. Geodetic leveling as a tool for studying restless in Monitoring Volcanoes; Techniques and Strategies Used by the Staff of the Cascades Volcano Observatory, 1980–90 125–134 (US Geological Survey, 1992).
Vanicek, P., Castle, R. O. & Balazs, E. I. Geodetic leveling and its applications. Rev. Geophys. 18, 505–524 (1980).
Lofgren, B. E. Measurement of compaction of aquifer systems in areas of land subsidence. US Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap. 424-B, 49–52 (1961).
Riley, F. S. in Land Subsidence. Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Land Subsidence 169–186 (International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 1986).
Burbey, T. J. Extensometer forensics: what can the data really tell us? Hydrol. J. 28, 637–655 (2020).
Hung, W.-C. et al. Multiple sensors applied to monitorland subsidence in Central Taiwan. Proc. Int. Assoc. Hydrol. Sci. 372, 385–391 (2015).
Boumans, R. M. & Day, J. W. High precision measurements of sediment elevation in shallow coastal areas using a sedimentation-erosion table. Estuaries 16, 375–380 (1993).
Cahoon, D. R. et al. High-precision measurements of wetland sediment elevation: II. The rod surface elevation table. J. Sediment. Res. 72, 734–739 (2002).
Webb, E. L. et al. A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 458–465 (2013).
Cahoon, D. R. Estimating relative sea-level rise and submergence potential at a coastal wetland. Estuaries Coasts 38, 1077–1084 (2015).
Cahoon, D. R., Lynch, J. C. & Knaus, R. M. Improved cryogenic coring device for sampling wetland soils. J. Sediment. Res. 66, 1025–1027 (1996).
Dou, S. et al. Distributed acoustic sensing for seismic monitoring of the near surface: a traffic-noise interferometry case study. Sci. Rep. 7, 11620 (2017).
Jousset, P. et al. Dynamic strain determination using fibre-optic cables allows imaging of seismological and structural features. Nat. Commun. 9, 2509 (2018).
Lindsey, N. J. et al. Fiber-optic network observations of earthquake wavefields. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 11792–11799 (2017).
López-Higuera, J. M., Cobo, L. R., Incera, A. Q. & Cobo, A. Fiber optic sensors in structural health monitoring. J. Lightwave Technol. 29, 587–608 (2011).
Sun, Y.-j. et al. Distributed acquisition, characterization and process analysis of multi-field information in slopes. Eng. Geol. 182, 49–62 (2014).
Zhang, C. C. et al. Vertically distributed sensing of deformation using fiber optic sensing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 11732–11741 (2018).
Habel, W. R. & Krebber, K. Fiber-optic sensor applications in civil and geotechnical engineering. Photonic Sens. 1, 268–280 (2011).
Gu, K. et al. Investigation of land subsidence with the combination of distributed fiber optic sensing techniques and microstructure analysis of soils. Eng. Geol. 240, 34–47 (2018).
DeWolf, S., Wyatt, F. K., Zumberge, M. A. & Hatfield, W. Improved vertical optical fiber borehole strainmeter design for measuring Earth strain. Rev. Sci. Instrum. 86, 114502 (2015).
Bock, Y. & Melgar, D. Physical applications of GPS geodesy: a review. Rep. Prog. Phys. 79, 106801 (2016).
Hofmann-Wellenhof, B., Lichtenegger, H. & Collins, J. Global Positioning System: Theory and Practice 5th edn (Springer, 2000).
Bossler, J. D., Goad, C. C. & Bender, P. L. Using the Global Positioning System (GPS) for geodetic positioning. Bull. Géodesique 54, 553 (1980).
Remondi, B. W. Performing centimeter-level surveys in seconds with GPS carrier phase: initial results. Navigation 32, 386–400 (1985).
Blewitt, G., Hammond, W. & Kreemer, C. Harnessing the GPS data explosion for interdisciplinary science. Eos 99, 1–2 (2018).
Karegar, M. A., Larson, K. M., Kusche, J. & Dixon, T. H. Novel quantification of shallow sediment compaction by GPS interferometric reflectometry and implications for flood susceptibility. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL087807 (2020). Use GPS interferometric reflectometry to estimate shallow sediment compaction rates in the Mississippi Delta and the North Sea’s eastern margin.
Berardino, P., Fornaro, G., Lanari, R. & Sansosti, E. A new algorithm for surface deformation monitoring based on small baseline differential SAR interferograms. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 40, 2375–2383 (2002).
Ferretti, A. et al. A new algorithm for processing interferometric data-stacks: SqueeSAR. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 49, 3460–3470 (2011).
Ferretti, A., Prati, C. & Rocca, F. Permanent scatterers in SAR interferometry. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 39, 8–20 (2001).
Hooper, A., Zebker, H., Segall, P. & Kampes, B. A new method for measuring deformation on volcanoes and other natural terrains using InSAR persistent scatterers. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L23611 (2004).
Massonnet, D. et al. The displacement field of the Landers earthquake mapped by radar interferometry. Nature 364, 138–142 (1993).
Bürgmann, R., Rosen, P. A. & Fielding, E. J. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry to measure Earth’s surface topography and its deformation. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 28, 169–209 (2000).
Hanssen, R. F. Radar Interferometry: Data Interpretation and Error Analysis (Kluwer, 2001).
Moreira, A. et al. A tutorial on synthetic aperture radar. IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Mag. 1, 6–43 (2013).
Franceschetti, G. & Lanari, R. Synthetic Aperture Radar Processing 328 (CRC Press, 1999).
Zebker, H. & Villasenor, J. Decorrelation in interferometric radar echoes. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 30, 950–959 (1992).
Ferretti, A., Monti-Guarnieri, A., Prati, C., Rocca, F. & Massonnet, D. InSAR Principles: Guidelines for SAR Interferometry Processing and Interpretation (ed. Fletcher, K.) 48 (ESA Publications, 2007).
Altamimi, Z., Rebischung, P., Métivier, L. & Collilieux, X. ITRF2014: A new release of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame modeling nonlinear station motions. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 121, 6109–6131 (2016).
Allison, M. et al. Global risks and research priorities for coastal subsidence. Eos 97, 22–27 (2016).
Blackwell, E., Shirzaei, M., Ojha, C. & Werth, S. Tracking California’s sinking coast from space: implications for relative sea-level rise. Sci. Adv. 6, eaba4551 (2020). Obtains the first high-resolution map of VLM along California’s coast by combining InSAR and GNSS data.
Okada, Y. Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 75, 1135–1154 (1985).
Okada, Y. Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 82, 1018–1040 (1992).
Bürgmann, R. & Dresen, G. Rheology of the lower crust and upper mantle: evidence from rock mechanics, geodesy, and field observations. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 36, 531–567 (2008).
Schmalzle, G. M., McCaffrey, R. & Creager, K. C. Central Cascadia subduction zone creep. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 15, 1515–1532 (2014).
Wang, P. L. et al. Heterogeneous rupture in the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700 inferred from coastal subsidence estimates. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 118, 2460–2473 (2013).
Briggs, R. W. et al. Uplift and subsidence reveal a nonpersistent megathrust rupture boundary (Sitkinak Island, Alaska). Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 2289–2296 (2014).
Sieh, K. et al. Earthquake supercycles inferred from sea-level changes recorded in the corals of west Sumatra. Science 322, 1674–1678 (2008).
Leonard, L. J., Hyndman, R. D. & Mazzotti, S. Coseismic subsidence in the 1700 great Cascadia earthquake: coastal estimates versus elastic dislocation models. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 116, 655–670 (2004).
Savage, J. C. A dislocation model of strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 4984–4996 (1983).
Plafker, G. Alaskan earthquake of 1964 and Chilean earthquake of 1960: implications for arc tectonics. J. Geophys. Res. 77, 901–925 (1972).
Ely, L. L., Cisternas, M., Wesson, R. L. & Dura, T. Five centuries of tsunamis and land-level changes in the overlapping rupture area of the 1960 and 2010 Chilean earthquakes. Geology 42, 995–998 (2014).
Garrett, E., Shennan, I., Watcham, E. & Woodroffe, S. Reconstructing paleoseismic deformation, 1: modern analogues from the 1960 and 2010 Chilean great earthquakes. Quat. Sci. Rev. 75, 11–21 (2013).
Feng, L. et al. Active deformation near the Nicoya Peninsula, northwestern Costa Rica, between 1996 and 2010: interseismic megathrust coupling. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 117, B06407 (2012).
Protti, M. et al. Nicoya earthquake rupture anticipated by geodetic measurement of the locked plate interface. Nat. Geosci. 7, 117–121 (2014).
Muto, J. et al. Coupled afterslip and transient mantle flow after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Sci. Adv. 5, eaaw1164 (2019).
Suito, H. & Freymueller, J. T. A viscoelastic and afterslip postseismic deformation model for the 1964 Alaska earthquake. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 114, B11404 (2009).
Peltier, W. R., Argus, D. F. & Drummond, R. Space geodesy constrains ice age terminal deglaciation: the global ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 120, 450–487 (2015).
Shennan, I. et al. Late Devensian and Holocene records of relative sea-level changes in northwest Scotland and their implications for glacio-hydro-isostatic modelling. Quat. Sci. Rev. 19, 1103–1135 (2000).
Kuchar, J., Milne, G. & Latychev, K. The importance of lateral Earth structure for North American glacial isostatic adjustment. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 512, 236–245 (2019).
Love, R. et al. The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea-level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America. Earth’s Future 4, 440–464 (2016). One of the most rigorous comparisons of GIA model and RSL data to date, partly based on 3D Earth models.
Wu, P. & van der Wal, W. Postglacial sealevels on a spherical, self-gravitating viscoelastic earth: effects of lateral viscosity variations in the upper mantle on the inference of viscosity contrasts in the lower mantle. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 211, 57–68 (2003).
Tarasov, L., Dyke, A. S., Neal, R. M. & Peltier, W. R. A data-calibrated distribution of deglacial chronologies for the North American ice complex from glaciological modeling. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 315, 30–40 (2012).
Hu, Y. & Freymueller, J. T. Geodetic observations of time-variable glacial isostatic adjustment in southeast Alaska and its implications for Earth rheology. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 124, 9870–9889 (2019).
Ivins, E. R. & James, T. S. Bedrock response to Llanquihue Holocene and present-day glaciation in southernmost South America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L24613 (2004).
Richter, A. et al. Crustal deformation across the Southern Patagonian Icefield observed by GNSS. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 452, 206–215 (2016).
Auriac, A. et al. Iceland rising: Solid Earth response to ice retreat inferred from satellite radar interferometry and visocelastic modeling. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 118, 1331–1344 (2013).
Nield, G. A. et al. Rapid bedrock uplift in the Antarctic Peninsula explained by viscoelastic response to recent ice unloading. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 397, 32–41 (2014).
Ortega-Guerrero, A., Rudolph, D. L. & Cherry, J. A. Analysis of long-term land subsidence near Mexico City: field investigations and predictive modeling. Water Resour. Res. 35, 3327–3341 (1999).
Zhang, Y., Xue, Y., Wu, J., Wang, H. & He, J. Mechanical modeling of aquifer sands under long-term groundwater withdrawal. Eng. Geol. 125, 74–80 (2012).
Zhang, Y., Xue, Y., Wu, J. & Wang, Z. Compaction of aquifer units under complex patterns of changing groundwater level. Environ. Earth Sci. 73, 1537–1544 (2015).
Burbey, T. J. Effects of horizontal strain in estimating specific storage and compaction in confined and leaky aquifer systems. Hydrol. J. 7, 521–532 (1999).
Gambolati, G. A three-dimensional model to compute land subsidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 17, 219–226 (1972).
Geertsma, J. in Proceedings of the 1st ISRM Congress (International Society for Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 1966).
Biot, M. A. General theory of three-dimensional consolidation. J. Appl. Phys. 12, 155–164 (1941).
Biot, M. A. Theory of elasticity and consolidation for a porous anisotropic solid. J. Appl. Phys. 26, 182–185 (1955).
Rice, J. R. & Cleary, M. P. Some basic stress diffusion solutions for fluid-saturated elastic porous media with compressible constituents. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 14, 227–241 (1976).
Gambolati, G. & Freeze, R. A. Mathematical simulation of the subsidence of Venice: 1. Theory. Water Resour. Res. 9, 721–733 (1973). The first regional numerical model to simulate and predict coastal subsidence following groundwater extraction.
Gambolati, G., Gatto, P. & Freeze, R. A. Mathematical simulation of the subsidence of Venice: 2. Results. Water Resour. Res. 10, 563–577 (1974).
Helm, D. C. One-dimensional simulation of aquifer system compaction near Pixley, California: 1. Constant parameters. Water Resour. Res. 11, 465–478 (1975).
Helm, D. C. One-dimensional simulation of aquifer system compaction near Pixley, California: 2. Stress-dependent parameters. Water Resour. Res. 12, 375–391 (1976).
Leake, S. Interbed storage changes and compaction in models of regional groundwater flow. Water Resour. Res. 26, 1939–1950 (1990).
Corapcioglu, M. Y. & Brutsaert, W. Viscoelastic aquifer model applied to subsidence due to pumping. Water Resour. Res. 13, 597–604 (1977).
Darcy, H. The Public Fountains of the City of Dijon. 647 (Kendall Hunt, 1856).
Shirzaei, M., Ellsworth, W. L., Tiampo, K. F., González, P. J. & Manga, M. Surface uplift and time-dependent seismic hazard due to fluid injection in eastern Texas. Science 353, 1416–1419 (2016).
Bjerrum, L. Engineering geology of Norwegian normally-consolidated marine clays as related to settlements of buildings. Geotechnique 17, 83–118 (1967).
Buisman, A. in Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering 103–106 (Cambridge, 1936).
Gray, H. in Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering 138–141 (Cambridge, 1936).
Zhang, Y., Wang, Z., Xue, Y. & Wu, J. Visco-elasto-plastic compaction of aquitards due to groundwater withdrawal in Shanghai, China. Environ. Earth Sci. 74, 1611–1624 (2015).
Comola, F. et al. Efficient global optimization of reservoir geomechanical parameters based on synthetic aperture radar-derived ground displacements. Geophysics 81, M23–M33 (2016).
Kihm, J.-H., Kim, J.-M., Song, S.-H. & Lee, G.-S. Three-dimensional numerical simulation of fully coupled groundwater flow and land deformation due to groundwater pumping in an unsaturated fluvial aquifer system. J. Hydrol. 335, 1–14 (2007).
Rutqvist, J., Vasco, D. W. & Myer, L. Coupled reservoir-geomechanical analysis of CO2 injection and ground deformations at In Salah, Algeria. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control. 4, 225–230 (2010).
Shirzaei, M., Manga, M. & Zhai, G. Hydraulic properties of injection formations constrained by surface deformation. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 515, 125–134 (2019).
Teatini, P., Ferronato, M., Gambolati, G. & Gonella, M. Groundwater pumping and land subsidence in the Emilia-Romagna coastland, Italy: modeling the past occurrence and the future trend. Water Resour. Res. 42, W01406 (2006).
Teatini, P., Gambolati, G., Ferronato, M., Settari, A. T. & Walters, D. Land uplift due to subsurface fluid injection. J. Geodyn. 51, 1–16 (2011).
Ye, S. et al. Three-dimensional numerical modeling of land subsidence in Shanghai, China. Hydrol. J. 24, 695–709 (2016).
Bethke, C. M. A numerical model of compaction-driven groundwater flow and heat transfer and its application to the paleohydrology of intracratonic sedimentary basins. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 90, 6817–6828 (1985).
Ungerer, P., Burrus, J., Doligez, B., Chenet, P. & Bessis, F. Basin evaluation by integrated two-dimensional modeling of heat transfer, fluid flow, hydrocarbon generation, and migration (1). AAPG Bull. 74, 309–335 (1990).
Zoccarato, C. & Teatini, P. Numerical simulations of Holocene salt-marsh dynamics under the hypothesis of large soil deformations. Adv. Water Res. 110, 107–119 (2017). A novel approach to modelling sediment deposition and shallow compaction in coastal wetlands that accounts for large deformations and changing soil properties.
Kolker, A. S., Allison, M. A. & Hameed, S. An evaluation of subsidence rates and sea-level variability in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L21404 (2011).
Texas General Land Office. Texas coastal Resiliency Master Plan. Texas General Land Office https://www.glo.texas.gov/coastal-grants/projects/files/Master-Plan.pdf (2017).
National Research Council. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future (The National Academies Press, 2012).
Nordhaus, W. D. The economics of hurricanes and implications of global warming. Clim. Change Econ. 1, 1–20 (2010).
Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana. Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast (Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, 2017).
Bekaert, D., Hamlington, B., Buzzanga, B. & Jones, C. Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar survey of subsidence in Hampton Roads, Virginia (USA). Sci. Rep. 7, 14752 (2017).
Karegar, M. A., Dixon, T. H. & Engelhart, S. E. Subsidence along the Atlantic Coast of North America: insights from GPS and late Holocene relative sea level data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 3126–3133 (2016). Integration of subsidence observations over short and long timescales that elucidates the role of fluid extraction.
Ng, A. H.-M. et al. Mapping land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia using persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) technique with ALOS PALSAR. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 18, 232–242 (2012).
Raucoules, D. et al. High nonlinear urban ground motion in Manila (Philippines) from 1993 to 2010 observed by DInSAR: implications for sea-level measurement. Remote Sens. Environ. 139, 386–397 (2013).
Miller, M. M. & Shirzaei, M. Land subsidence in Houston correlated with flooding from Hurricane Harvey. Remote Sens. Environ. 225, 368–378 (2019). Shows that Houston flooding following Hurricane Harvey correlates with long-term coastal subsidence.
Gao, X. & Wang, K. L. Strength of stick-slip and creeping subduction megathrusts from heat flow observations. Science 345, 1038–1041 (2014).
Khoshmanesh, M., Shirzaei, M. & Uchida, N. Deep slow-slip events promote seismicity in northeastern Japan megathrust. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 540, 116261 (2020).
Carpenter, B. M., Marone, C. & Saffer, D. M. Weakness of the San Andreas Fault revealed by samples from the active fault zone. Nat. Geosci. 4, 251–254 (2011).
Lockner, D. A., Morrow, C., Moore, D. & Hickman, S. Low strength of deep San Andreas fault gouge from SAFOD core. Nature 472, 82–85 (2011).
Sibson, R. H. Fault zone models, heat flow, and the depth distribution of earthquakes in the continental crust of the United States. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, 151–163 (1982).
Khoshmanesh, M. & Shirzaei, M. Episodic creep events on the San Andreas Fault caused by pore pressure variations. Nat. Geosci. 11, 610–614 (2018).
Kodaira, S. et al. High pore fluid pressure may cause silent slip in the Nankai trough. Science 304, 1295–1298 (2004).
Rice, J. R. in Fault Mechanics and Transport Properties of Rocks (eds Evans, B. & Wong, T.-F.) 475–503 (Academic, 1992).
Kemp, A. C., Cahill, N., Engelhart, S. E., Hawkes, A. D. & Wang, K. Revising estimates of spatially variable subsidence during the AD 1700 Cascadia earthquake using a Bayesian foraminiferal transfer function. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 108, 654–673 (2018).
Yousefi, M., Milne, G., Li, S., Wang, K. & Bartholet, A. Constraining interseismic deformation of the Cascadia subduction zone: new insights from estimates of vertical land motion over different timescales. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 125, e2019JB018248 (2020). Constrains megathrust locking models of the Cascadia subduction zone using RSL observations and GPS data.
Bevis, M. et al. Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 1934–1939 (2019).
Harig, C. & Simons, F. J. Mapping Greenland’s mass loss in space and time. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 19934–19937 (2012).
Mouginot, J. et al. Forty-six years of Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 9239–9244 (2019).
Shepherd, A. et al. Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. Nature 579, 233–239 (2019).
Eriyagama, N., Muthuwatta, L. & Thilakarathne, M. in Proceedings of the Disaster Management Conference: The future we want- Safer Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka 379–381 (Ministry of Disaster Management, 2014).
Higgins, S., Overeem, I., Tanaka, A. & Syvitski, J. P. Land subsidence at aquaculture facilities in the Yellow River delta, China. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3898–3902 (2013).
Riel, B., Simons, M., Ponti, D., Agram, P. & Jolivet, R. Quantifying ground deformation in the Los Angeles and Santa Ana Coastal Basins due to groundwater withdrawal. Water Resour. Res. 54, 3557–3582 (2018).
Wang, R. & Kümpel, H.-J. Poroelasticity: efficient modelling of strongly coupled, slow deformation processes in a multilayered half-space. Geophysics 68, 705–717 (2003).
Wang, S.-J., Lee, C.-H. & Hsu, K.-C. A technique for quantifying groundwater pumping and land subsidence using a nonlinear stochastic poroelastic model. Environ. Earth Sci. 73, 8111–8124 (2015).
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Swain, D. L. & Touma, D. Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 3931–3936 (2015).
Meixner, T. et al. Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States. J. Hydrol. 534, 124–138 (2016).
Niraula, R. et al. How might recharge change under projected climate change in the western US? Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 10,407–410,418 (2017).
Smerdon, B. D. A synopsis of climate change effects on groundwater recharge. J. Hydrol. 555, 125–128 (2017).
Tillman, F. D., Gangopadhyay, S. & Pruitt, T. Changes in groundwater recharge under projected climate in the upper Colorado River basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 6968–6974 (2016).
Vitousek, S. et al. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise. Sci. Rep. 7, 1399 (2017).
Knowles, N. Potential inundation due to rising sea levels in the San Francisco Bay Region. San Franc. Estuary Watershed Sci. https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2010v8iss1art1 (2010).
Barnard, P. L., Schoellhamer, D. H., Jaffe, B. E. & McKee, L. J. Sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay coastal system: an overview. Mar. Geol. 345, 3–17 (2013).
Dragert, H., Hyndman, R. D., Rogers, G. C. & Wang, K. Current deformation and the width of the seismogenic zone of the northern Cascadia subduction thrust. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 653–668 (1994).
Rocca, F., Rucci, A., Ferretti, A. & Bohane, A. Advanced InSAR interferometry for reservoir monitoring. First Break 31, 77–85 (2013).
Pfeffer, J. & Allemand, P. The key role of vertical land motions in coastal sea level variations: a global synthesis of multisatellite altimetry, tide gauge data and GPS measurements. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 439, 39–47 (2016).
Wang, R. J. & Kumpel, H. J. Poroelasticity: efficient modeling of strongly coupled, slow deformation processes in a multilayered half-space. Geophysics 68, 705–717 (2003).
Horton, B. P. et al. Mapping sea-level change in time, space, and probability. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 43, 481–521 (2018).
Griggs, G. et al. Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science (California Ocean Science Trust, 2017).
Strozzi, T., Teatini, P., Tosi, L., Wegmüller, U. & Werner, C. Land subsidence of natural transitional environments by satellite radar interferometry on artificial reflectors. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 118, 1177–1191 (2013).
Da Lio, C., Teatini, P., Strozzi, T. & Tosi, L. Understanding land subsidence in salt marshes of the Venice Lagoon from SAR Interferometry and ground-based investigations. Remote Sens. Environ. 205, 56–70 (2018).
Fiaschi, S. & Wdowinski, S. Local land subsidence in Miami Beach (FL) and Norfolk (VA) and its contribution to flooding hazard in coastal communities along the US Atlantic coast. Ocean Coast. Manag. 187, 105078 (2020).
Shirzaei, M. A wavelet-based multitemporal DInSAR algorithm for monitoring ground surface motion. IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett. 10, 456–460 (2013).
Hooper, A., Segall, P. & Zebker, H. Persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar for crustal deformation analysis, with application to Volcán Alcedo, Galápagos. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 112, B07407 (2007).
Jolivet, R., Grandin, R., Lasserre, C., Doin, M. P. & Peltzer, G. Systematic InSAR tropospheric phase delay corrections from global meteorological reanalysis data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L17311 (2011).
Yu, C., Li, Z., Penna, N. T. & Crippa, P. Generic atmospheric correction model for Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 123, 9202–9222 (2018).
Yu, C., Penna, N. T. & Li, Z. Generation of real-time mode high-resolution water vapor fields from GPS observations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 122, 2008–2025 (2017).
Hu, J. et al. Resolving three-dimensional surface displacements from InSAR measurements: a review. Earth Sci. Rev. 133, 1–17 (2014).
Fialko, Y., Sandwell, D., Simons, M. & Rosen, P. Three-dimensional deformation caused by the Bam, Iran, earthquake and the origin of shallow slip deficit. Nature 435, 295–299 (2005).
Jung, H.-S., Lu, Z., Won, J.-S., Poland, M. P. & Miklius, A. Mapping three-dimensional surface deformation by combining multiple-aperture interferometry and conventional interferometry: Application to the June 2007 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett. 8, 34–38 (2010).
Wright, T. J., Parsons, B. E. & Lu, Z. Toward mapping surface deformation in three dimensions using InSAR. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L01607 (2004).
Joughin, I. R., Kwok, R. & Fahnestock, M. A. Interferometric estimation of three-dimensional ice-flow using ascending and descending passes. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 36, 25–37 (1998).
Mohr, J. J., Reeh, N. & Madsen, S. N. Three-dimensional glacial flow and surface elevation measured with radar interferometry. Nature 391, 273–276 (1998).
Tymofyeyeva, E. & Fialko, Y. Geodetic evidence for a blind fault segment at the southern end of the San Jacinto fault zone. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 123, 878–891 (2018).
Guglielmino, F., Nunnari, G., Puglisi, G. & Spata, A. Simultaneous and integrated strain tensor estimation from geodetic and satellite deformation measurements to obtain three-dimensional displacement maps. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 49, 1815–1826 (2011).
Samsonov, S. & Tiampo, K. Analytical optimization of a DInSAR and GPS dataset for derivation of three-dimensional surface motion. IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett. 3, 107–111 (2006).
The authors thank the reviewers for providing insightful comments and suggestions and J. Flocks for providing constructive comments on the manuscript. M.S. is supported by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. 80NSSC170567) and the US National Science Foundation (grant no. EAR-1735630). J.F. is supported by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. 80NSSC17K0566). T.E.T. has been supported by the US National Science Foundation (grant no. EAR-1349311). T.D. is supported by the US National Science Foundation (grant nos. EAR-1624795 and EAR-1624533). P.S.J.M. is supported by an EU Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (grant no. 894476 — InSPiRED — H2020-MSCA-IF-2019). This work is a contribution to the PALSEA programme and International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) project 639. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review information
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment thanks S. Wdowinski, M. Karegar and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Harris–Galveston Subsidence District: https://hgsubsidence.org/science-research/what-is-subsidence/
Nevada Geodetic Laboratory: http://geodesy.unr.edu/
About this article
Cite this article
Shirzaei, M., Freymueller, J., Törnqvist, T.E. et al. Measuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidence. Nat Rev Earth Environ 2, 40–58 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00115-x
Scientific Reports (2021)
Communications Earth & Environment (2021)
A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping
Nature Communications (2021)