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Lower pork consumption and technological change in feed production can reduce the pork supply chain environmental footprint in China

Nature Food volume 4, pages 74–83 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Nearly half of global pork production and consumption occurs in China, but the transition towards intensification is associated with worsening environmental impacts. Here we explore scenarios for implementing structural and technological changes across the pork supply chain to improve environmental sustainability and meet future demand. Following the middle-of-the-road socio-economic pathway (SSP2), we estimate that the environmental footprint from the pork supply chain will increase by ~50% from 2017 to 2050. Utilizing technologies that improve feed crop production and manure management could reduce phosphorus and nitrogen losses by three-quarters and one-third, respectively, with modest reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and cropland area. Reducing pork consumption had substantial mitigation potential. Increased feed and pork imports would decrease domestic environmental footprints and meet demand, but increase footprints elsewhere. We conclude that farm-specific technologies and structural adjustments can support the development of rural, small-scale pig farms near cropland and promote circular economy principles.

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Fig. 1: Estimated relative cropland areas used for feed production, and relative GHG emissions, Nr and P losses associated with China’s pork supply in 2017 and 2050 (for BAU).
Fig. 2: Relative changes (%) in cropland area, GHG emissions, and N and P losses following the implementation of series of technological measures and structural adjustments by 2050, relative to the 2050 BAU baseline.
Fig. 3: The needed cropland area, and GHG emissions and reactive Nr and P losses associated with China’s pork supply chain for the 2050 BAU baseline and for various scenarios.
Fig. 4: The relative contributions of technological and structural measures to the diminished need for cropland area, and to the mitigation of GHG emissions, Nr losses and P losses in the SF scenario (Fig. 3), relative to the 2050 BAU baseline.
Fig. 5: The key mass flows in the pork supply China (left) and a summary of key advantages and disadvantages of possible pathways/options for achieving more sustainable pork production and consumption (table on the right; see Discussion).

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Data availability

Data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article and its Supplementary Information files, or are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Code availability

The statistical coding is available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, grant no. 31772393 to Y.H.), the National Key R&D Program of China funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (MOST, grant no. 2016YFE0103100 to Y.H.), the Program of Advanced Discipline Construction in Beijing (Agriculture Green Development to Y.H. and B.T.), the High-level Team Project of China Agricultural University (CAU to Y.H.) and Agriculture Green Development Program sponsored by China Scholarship Council and Hainan University (no. 201913043 to L.Z. and W.L.).

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Bingxin Tong, Ling Zhang.

  2. These authors jointly supervised this work: Bingxin Tong, Ling Zhang.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, National Academy of Agriculture Green Development, Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China

    Bingxin Tong, Ling Zhang, Yong Hou, Oene Oenema, Weitong Long & Fusuo Zhang

  2. Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands

    Oene Oenema & Gerard Velthof

  3. Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands

    Weitong Long

  4. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Agricultural University, Hebei, China

    Wenqi Ma

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Contributions

B.T., L.Z., Y.H. and O.O. designed the research; B.T., L.Z. and W.L. developed the model; B.T., L.Z., Y.H. and O.O. analysed data; B.T., L.Z., Y.H., O.O., G.V., W.M. and F.Z. wrote the paper. All authors contributed to analysis of the results. All authors read and commented on various drafts of the paper.

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Correspondence to Yong Hou.

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Tong, B., Zhang, L., Hou, Y. et al. Lower pork consumption and technological change in feed production can reduce the pork supply chain environmental footprint in China. Nat Food 4, 74–83 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00640-6

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