Abstract
Conflict, drought and locusts are leading concerns for African food security but the relative importance and spatiotemporal scale of crises resulting from each hazard is poorly characterized. Here we use continuous, subnational data to demonstrate that the rise of food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa that began in 2014 is attributable to an increase in violent conflict, particularly in South Sudan and Nigeria. Although drought remains a leading trigger of food crises, the prevalence of drought-related crises did not increase from 2009 to 2018. When exposed to drought, pastoralists experienced more widespread, severe and long-lasting food crises than people living in agricultural zones. Food insecurity remained elevated in pastoral regions for 2 years following a drought, while agricultural regions returned to pre-drought food-security levels in ~12 months. The few confirmed famines during the 2009–2018 period coincided with both conflict and drought, while locusts had little effect on food security during this period.
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Data availability
All data used as part of this research are publicly available from the sources listed in Table 1.
Code availability
All code available upon request.
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Acknowledgements
This project was supported by ACToday, a Columbia World Project. W.A. acknowledges funding from the Earth Institute Postdoctoral Fellow Program. R.S., S.M., E.I.-N., W.S., A.d.S. and F.C. were supported by NSF award OIA 1934798.
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W.A. designed the experiments. W.A., C.T., S.M., E.I.-N., R.S., W.S., F.C. and A.d.S. analysed the data and wrote the paper. W.A., C.T., S.M., W.S., D.M. and K.M. contributed analysis tools and materials to the research.
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Anderson, W., Taylor, C., McDermid, S. et al. Violent conflict exacerbated drought-related food insecurity between 2009 and 2019 in sub-Saharan Africa. Nat Food 2, 603–615 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00327-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00327-4
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