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Optimization of China’s maize and soy production can ensure feed sufficiency at lower nitrogen and carbon footprints

Abstract

China purchases around 66% of the soy that is traded internationally. This strains the global food supply and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we show that optimizing the maize and soy production of China can improve its self-sufficiency and also alleviate adverse environmental effects. Using data from more than 1,800 counties in China, we estimate the area-weighted yield potential (Ypot) and yield gaps, setting the attainable yield (Yatt) as the yield achieved by the top 10% of producers per county. We also map out county-by-county acreage allocation and calculate the attainable production capacity according to a set of sustainability criteria. Under optimized conditions, China would be able to produce all the maize and 45% of the soy needed by 2035—while reducing nitrogen fertilizer use by 26%, reactive nitrogen loss by 28% and greenhouse gas emissions by 19%—with the same acreage as 2017, our reference year.

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Fig. 1: County yield potential and yield gaps for maize and soy in China.
Fig. 2: Acreage reallocation in the optimized production scheme.
Fig. 3: Fertilizer input, reactive nitrogen losses, GHG emissions and cost–benefit analysis for projected maize and soy production in 2035 under conventional versus enhanced management scenarios.

Data availability

The data supporting the findings of this study are available within the paper and its Supplementary Information and Supplementary Data files. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The custom code generated for this study is available in the Supplementary Data file.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge all those who provided local assistance or technical services involving the farmer survey. We also thank Z. Wu for editing the manuscript. This work was financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFD0200105), the Taishan Scholarship Project of Shandong Province (no. TS201712082) and the Science and Technology Plan Project of Qinghai Province (2019-NK-A11-02).

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Authors

Contributions

Z.C. designed the research and supervised the project. Z.L., M.C., H.Y. and F.Z. performed research. Z.L., Z.B., Y. Yin, M.C., J.B., Y.X., Q.Z., Y. Yang, H.Y. and M.D. collected and analysed the data. Z.C., Z.D., Z.L., W.D.B. and Y.G. wrote the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhenling Cui.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Peer review information Nature Food thanks Martin van Ittersum and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Discussion, Figs. 1–10, Tables 1–8 and references.

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Supplementary Data

Supplementary data and code.

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Source Data Fig. 1

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 2

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 3

Statistical source data.

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Liu, Z., Ying, H., Chen, M. et al. Optimization of China’s maize and soy production can ensure feed sufficiency at lower nitrogen and carbon footprints. Nat Food 2, 426–433 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00300-1

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